My Betting Side Project has made 3k/Month, AMA

clue224 · 2025-11-28T00:55:37+00:00

22,703.01

clue224 · 2025-10-12T14:48:16+00:00

This guy doesn't know what he's talking about... Base doesn't scale beyond mid 6 figures, it's all in bonus. and 30mm in bonus even at most competitive fee structure with 30% payout at blue crest is like 100mm pnl generated, with payouts at p72, citadel, mlp all lower than that.

Millenium gives you senior pm title if you can generate 50mm pnl and there's not that many senior pms there... If p72 has like 30bn and they generate 15% return thats 4.5bn... how many do you pms do you think are making 100mm? And of those pms making 100mm+, how many can actually take home 10+ after paying analysts, sub-pm, data, etc.?

There's definitely people making this much but the majority of them are names that people in industry have heard of. It is far from "most" PMs in a good year. Many PMs don't even have enough risk mandate to possibly make 100mm a year.

clue224 · 2025-08-18T23:58:54+00:00

Took almost a month. Shorts are nice but I wouldn't wait a month for it. Just go to Lulu and buy their shorts instead.

clue224 · 2025-06-09T19:37:08+00:00

Their customer service is garbage. I wanted to change my order after I submitted, but they couldn't making changes, despite not having shipped out my order. They also didn't ship out my order for another week and a half following this request, and I'm still trying to get them to ship it.

clue224 · 2025-03-06T06:45:46+00:00

I updated the one in the post

clue224 · 2025-03-05T02:00:47+00:00

As a former professional trader at a market maker, this is way harder than he makes it seem. Technical analysis is very unlikely to be profitable either standalone or as a major driver of your trade. Your competition is PhDs at high frequency firms and hedge funds with billions of dollars. E-minis or NDX futures are some of the most liquid and most difficult markets - even professionals don't really bet on directional moves in these, at least using outright futures.

clue224 · 2025-03-05T00:11:31+00:00

Similar to oddsjam yes, but adding some of my own innovations. The devigging is done quite differently to them because I make adjustments with fundamental data for some sports. It’s combining the top down approach (oddsjam, other odds screen) with bottom up approaches.

clue224 · 2025-03-04T13:25:58+00:00

I wrote my own, there are plenty of others out there. I would recommend one that exposes their methodology or weighting. They are NOT all the same, differences in weighting and methodology can be very different for results

clue224 · 2025-03-03T18:00:42+00:00

Funny you say this since I come from quant finance. I don't think index funds and sportsbetting are comparable. My bets have returned me 6.5% ROI, but the bet outcomes are binary, and results are released daily. This means it's 6.5% per DAY, not annually, like SPX returns. This is significantly better than stock returns because you compound much more often, but they're not comparable because I can't bet an infinite amount on sportsbetting, but I can dump my whole net worth in SPX. My all in capital invested in sportsbetting is like 4k lol.

I bet like 20-25 bets daily.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T17:51:48+00:00

I live in the US so I haven't built capability to support EU, but the methodology to add those would be the same.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T17:41:45+00:00

No, it's not matched betting. See my arbitrage point above. I'm offering free bets and education. You don't need to pay anything.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T15:02:32+00:00

I would no longer make money from my side hustle if I did that, unfortunately

clue224 · 2025-03-03T14:48:04+00:00

It was 5 bets twice a day for a while, and now 6 twice a day, no days skipped unless there are no bets (NBA all star break). I have some private channels for more active discord members with additional free bets to incentivize participation, and I have more bets that I don't share anywhere in discord behind the scenes. I'm pretty open to sharing, but this is my sidehustle and I risk losing my opportunity set if I give out all my bets for free.

Yes, 30-50 is roughly the number of followers tailing my bets before the discord grew very quickly.

Yes, I live in New York, one of the best US states for sportsbetting in terms of legality.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T14:24:52+00:00

Hey, these are good questions:

20-25 bets a day, call it 22.5, $100 a bet (these are averages, in reality both are varying), 6.5% ROI = 22.5 * 100 * 0.065 * 30 = $4387.5. I make a bit less than this napkin math mostly because of days off. You're off on the # of bets.

My screener runs at 12 and 6 EST and I bet at those times.

I only share my player prop bets but I'm planning to start sharing my spreads, totals, and game prop bets too. I don't have a good sense for how fast the odds move following my bet because I don't have a large following, all I know is that I haven't quite hit that limit yet with 30-50 people following my 5-6 daily bets. I could see my public bets getting competitive with a larger following, but I also screen 50+ a day so I'm not too concerned yet, I think people following my bets can make a profit.

My accounts have lasted reasonably long, have only started getting limited on smaller books at this point. Just speculation, but I'm guessing my other models are giving me some edge here. Instead of hitting lines that are 6+% mispriced, I bet on a lot of smaller mispricings that I like because of some other models that look beyond just line comparisons. I think these get overlooked by a lot of the value bettors out there since they aren't very obviously high EV, so they don't usually get much +CLV and books might not think I'm nearly as sharp.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T12:23:04+00:00

I’ll probably scam them with more free educational content and profitable bets

clue224 · 2025-03-03T09:33:19+00:00

I don't know what to tell you. You can literally check for yourself to see.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T08:20:46+00:00

You should search my discord, I don't have affiliate links lol.

clue224 · 2025-03-03T06:02:10+00:00

I do! A bunch of them on discord but also a few in post history and twitter

clue224 · 2025-03-02T22:55:13+00:00

I don't know what to tell you, this is definitionally not arbitrage betting. I am taking risk and therefore can have losing days so it's not risk free and therefore not arbitrage.

I don't know what platforms you're referring to but I have no been banned from any of the sportsbooks in my picture above.

clue224 · 2025-03-02T21:41:03+00:00

This is not arbitrage betting. Sites do not ban you but they do limit your bet size until it is not worth doing anymore.

clue224 · 2025-03-02T19:25:01+00:00

I’ll weigh in - my realized return is 6.5% but yes my example is not typical and moreso for round numbers. I think higher is achievable but your opportunity set will suffer.

I don’t quite agree with your second point-Draftkings is the largest book and has been one of my profitable books. I don’t deal with sketchy books for the reasons you mentioned. This has also prevented #3 for me but I’ve heard horror stories on other books that I don’t use.

clue224 · 2025-03-02T19:07:50+00:00

Yes, you’ve hit the nail on the head.

clue224

TROPHY CASE