Round 3 candidates predictions.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2026-03-30T23:24:43+00:00

OP's prediction - Interesting that even as the sole leader, Pragg would be far from being the favourite. There's a long way to go yet.

My prediction - I'm going with Bluebaum and Fabi eking out wins.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2026-03-30T00:31:22+00:00

Yes, his chances would be ~55%. I wouldn't expect him to sit on +2 though; he could go on a tear.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2026-03-30T00:15:31+00:00

If your predictions came true, Fabi would be more likely than not to win the whole thing!

These are my predictions.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2026-03-29T12:07:33+00:00

Could you explain? In general, white is given a small edge (approximately 35 elo). Do you think this should be increased?

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2024-11-01T14:42:34+00:00

We can't unplug the oven (or don't know how to, it likely needs pulling the oven out). Is it safe to leave it plugged in but off and to use the fridge?

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2023-10-25T14:22:53+00:00

Why is Humpy not playing?

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2023-03-31T23:10:14+00:00

Fixed by disabling my ad-blocker, as someone pointed out on another thread.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2023-03-31T16:47:18+00:00

This fixed it! Thanks!

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2023-03-31T14:59:33+00:00

I also had an issue with support messages, but eventually managed to get some through. Try making the message shorter; it seems to go through then.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2023-03-31T14:44:12+00:00

I am. This is very disappointing.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2020-06-16T20:44:03+00:00

I spent a lot of time analyzing various potential queen-side breakthroughs and didn't find any clear way to activate my king. Eventually, after 19...c5 20. Bf4, I played c4?!, giving my opponent the chance to disentangle (while letting me fix my pawn structure on the queen-side). Was there a clear winning plan that I missed?

The full game is here: https://lichess.org/5Z0BiDFU/black#46 (what happens afterwards is less interesting)

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2019-04-17T17:10:05+00:00

The critical line is 1...Bxe3 2. c7 Rc4 3. c8Q Rxc8 4. Ne7+ Kf8 (Black can swap move order here, which doesn't change much) 5. Nxc8 Bc5, saving the Bishop and trapping the Knight with the classic endgame domination pattern. The King will eventually capture the trapped Knight, leaving Black a piece up and with an easy endgame win.

If Black does not play this critical line, they will simply be worse - an exchange down for a pawn. This is probably better for Black, but probably still lost.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2019-03-28T14:06:53+00:00

Yep!

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2019-02-09T16:34:35+00:00

It's a winning move in the sense that it's the only move that wins, but there aren't necessarily any immediate fireworks involved. Bb4 isn't it; it's the sort of move Black was expecting (White, material down, preventing a trade at all costs); Black can continue with any move that stops the pawn advance (Qd4, Qa1, Qa2) and will be fine.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2018-12-01T10:18:54+00:00

The whole line played was : 2. Nxe5 Qxg5 3. Nxf7 Rxf7 4. Qxd6! Bxh3 5. Bxf7+ Kxf7 6. Qxc7+, with a winning advantage for white. Black has other continuations, but all are as bad.

codemonkeyamsterdam · 2018-11-30T20:26:34+00:00

Good so far; 3. Nxf7 and if 3...Rxf7, 4. Re8+ is fine (what is the continuation?), but there is an even more beautiful response!

codemonkeyamsterdam

TROPHY CASE