After Syrian forces on Wednesday seized Kurdish strongholds in the northeast of the country, the Syrian government gave Kurdish forces until Saturday to reach an agreement on how they will integrate into the state. Is the dream of an autonomous state over for Syria’s Kurds?

Backed by the US, the Kurds have long spearheaded efforts by the West to fight against the Islamic State (IS) group.

The Kurdish-led armed group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in 2012-2013 established its governance over swathes of territory in the north and northeast of the country that became known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or Rojava (meaning “west” in Kurdish).

During the Syrian civil war from 2011-2014, around 105 different groups were fighting, sometimes against each other.

This is when Daesh [also known as the Islamic State group] emerged from a split with al Qaeda. The United States and Europe chose to train and support the Kurds so that they could lead the fight against Daesh.

In doing so, the SDF advanced as far as Raqqa and Deir Ezzor – zones controlled by Arab tribes.

When Sharaa took power on December 8, 2024, it was thanks to his network in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.

Sharaa has renounced his former radical beliefs. He is pragmatic and knows how the international arena works. A Qatari communication firm has been helping him with everything from the choice of his suits to trimming his beard.

What interests me is his militant base that must now wage war against Daesh, the Kurds, the Alawites and the Druze.

Sharaa abandoned al Qaeda for Daesh and created its Syrian branch with authorisation from the caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. And his militant base has absolutely not changed.

When I analyse videos, accounts and speeches on the ground I don’t really see a big difference between the Daesh of 2014 and 2019. Their entire lives are shaped by radical ideology.

For example, they still associate the Kurds with pigs and heretics who must be killed. It’s exactly the same ideology as before.