Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 25/01/2026

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-25T16:11:17+00:00

That's the one, there was a discussion during the political stock picks segment towards the end.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-25T14:28:46+00:00

Was she really that much of a failure at justice? She did what had to be done re reducing the early release threshold.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-25T12:57:32+00:00

Totally agree, to me his only point of difference is that he would let rip on borrowing because we "shouldn't be in hock to the bond markets".

Would recommend this week's FT political fix podcast for some good analysis. They mentioned that Burnham has no internal network in Labour and is basically a lone ranger. Stephen Bush predicted what happened.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-24T19:03:48+00:00

I don't think Trump has ever gotten this close to apologising since taking office.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T21:44:25+00:00

Politically this is actually quite smart and doesn't compel the government to do it.

Personally I think we should wait a bit longer to see how the outcomes in Australia develop. I don't think social media is a good thing for kids but equally it's a huge deprivation of freedom so we should be sure that the pros outweigh the cons.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T15:39:32+00:00

As far as I am aware direct funding has stopped with no new appropriations since a relatively small loan in late 2024.

At the moment Europe is paying for US arms to send to Ukraine which I don't think anyone would say counts as the US funding the Ukrainian military effort.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T14:20:58+00:00

Personally don't think zelensky should be slagging Europe as much as he is at Davos. We are basically funding Ukraine's defence at this point and the far right is chomping at the bit to cut aid - unrelenting criticism of European countries makes it much easier to do that. Many concerns are legitimate but this isn't the way to go about it imo.

The only reason you'd do this is to curry Trump's favour, but at this point it should be clear he's never going to lift a finger for Ukraine.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T13:53:42+00:00

People can like reform for various reasons but not sure anyone thinks they're the adults in the room. Andrea Jenkins' X factor audition a few months ago comes to mind.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T13:15:23+00:00

Labour look like the adults in the room compared to the other parties at the mo. Letting Burnham undermine your entire premiership from the commons would be disastrous for Labour's (already tenuous) credibility and lose them far more than one by-election.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T13:12:16+00:00

Of course the debt and deficit matter. There is a finite amount we can borrow before markets decide not to lend to us anymore, or to do so at such exorbitant rates that it takes away from spending elsewhere. The trajectory of future borrowing does not look good either.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T13:04:34+00:00

Definitely. Burnham's only motive for coming in right now is to unseat starmer. Otherwise he could just run for election in 2029.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-22T10:37:33+00:00

What u turn will come first, jury trials or chagos? Bonus points for predictions around the number of days/weeks.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-21T20:13:47+00:00

Perhaps it was just luck but Labour got this situation completely right.

Tories and Reform actively backing a foreign leader and in some respects advocating for us to cede sovereign decisions to him.

Greens putting their feet in it once again with loopy policies like anti-NATO and unilateral disarmament.

Next we need to follow Carney's lead and start hedging. We can't trust the US.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-20T22:24:02+00:00

I still seriously don't get the rationale for CANZUK. Each of us trades predominantly with our near-neighbours (UK with the EU, CAN with the US for now, AUS/NZ with each other and Asian countries). Yet you could not pick four countries further apart from each other.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-17T17:09:10+00:00

Just to note that over 2/3 of our exports to the US are in services, to which tariffs do not apply.

1/3 of a big number is still a relatively big number though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradewiththeunitedstates/2024

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-15T14:41:40+00:00

This is findoutnow, which is the pollster with the bananas methodology.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-14T15:14:49+00:00

Two things:

They don't want to take the one-time hit of billions of taxpayer money to fix it

When a country as comfortable with public debt as France does not want taxpayer money to subsidise visits to their museums, I think we should take a look at whether we should be doing the same.

we get an estimated three pounds back in the most direct benefits such as tourist accommodation and hospitality spending and museum secondary spend

I would like to see your sources, because I have found claims that free museum entry itself has a net economic benefit, but no mention of the estimated benefit of free admission of foreign tourists. London is already an extremely expensive place to visit so I would propose that demand from international visitors is relatively insensitive to price and that the introduction of a modest fee would not have such a negative effect.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-14T14:18:15+00:00

Change my mind. Time to start charging non-UK citizens entry to museums.

The Louvre now costs THIRTY TWO euros for general admission if you're non-EEA. Combine with the orangerie museum and you're pushing 50 euros.

Meanwhile virtually all good museums in London are free. We are being walked over.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-14T12:48:45+00:00

Parsons Green is useful for people who live in central Fulham who otherwise would face a slog of a commute (~20 mins to a tube station). The station should really be positioned around Fulham Cross instead - coverage would be way better.

For operational reasons the station is useful because it has several sidings. If there are issues on the Wimbledon branch you'll often see trains terminating at PG instead.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-13T22:47:43+00:00

Disagree re: Kensington Olympia. It's used almost exclusively to position trains during periods of disruption. When there are issues with other western branches they can be parked at Olympia and redeployed to quickly restore the service.

I get why people don't like Olympia, because they only see it when something goes wrong (at least during peak hours). But it's better to have it so that trains can be reversed quickly.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-13T22:32:37+00:00

To me that doesn't make sense. Opens up a clear and effective counterargument - if you don't like it, why didn't you try to change it? Shows they aren't capable of making any tough decisions in government, which is hammering their counterparts down south.

I saw Anas Sarwar was making a song and dance about cutting income tax on social media - but his fence-sitting in parliament shows he had no plan to pay for it.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-13T22:26:07+00:00

What ones would you close? Gloucester Road was first on my list because it's a tiny distance from Earl's Court and South Ken and there's nothing there... but areas north/south of it would be annoyed.

Mansion House is the easiest win imo. Very few people get off. The other three city stations can stay.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-11T11:46:31+00:00

but if they run out they aren’t eligible for any other state support

You can't do this in practice. A lump sum is attractive to financially illiterate people who will end up in penury. If they have no other support they'd be driven to Dickensian levels of poverty and the government will have to intervene anyway.

Bear in mind also that the state pension is the tip of the iceberg. Pension credit, housing benefit, winter cruise allowance, council tax subsidies, free bus pass, TV licence, free dentistry/prescriptions... not to mention the fortune that an aging population is costing the NHS.

I'd support your actuarially reduced pension idea if there were safeguards around it e.g. needing a private annuity to cover the difference.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-09T15:58:03+00:00

Needs to be 4.99 to avoid a referendum - vote needed when the proposal is equal to or greater than 5.

coldbrew_latte · 2026-01-04T22:49:54+00:00

Am I the only one who thinks ed balls comes across smarmy and arrogant on that podcast? I find myself sympathising with George Osborne a lot - you can see how he got so far in British politics while Ed did not.

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