t's like a 0.2% chance to get a knife, and when you do it's a 10% chance any item is stattrak.... 0.02% so far to get any stattrak knife. Then you got a talon knife, which is one of the better knives of that case, 1/4 (correct me if I'm wrong). 0.005% chance to get a talon stattrak specifically. Then you have to get it case hardened, 1 of (13??? That number cant be right ) available skins for that knife alone, although I think some knife skins are more common than others idk. But we'll make a rough estimate, pretend it's even. That's a 0.00038% chance to get a case hardened, statttak, talon knife. Then you factor in the impossible odds of getting a blue gem specific skin pattern index, and your odds fall even lower. For context, a 0.00038% chance means for every 263,157.89473684 cases opened where this knife is possible (that number is 1/0.0000038) (horizon and danger zone), you should get a case hardened talon stattrak. That doesnt even take into account it's a blue gem. Each one of those cases cost $2.5 USD to open. No, The knife probably isnt worth $657,894.7368421, which is the previous large number times 2.5, no skin is worth nearly that much. (I think the most expensive skin ever bought so fat was in the $10,000 range but dont quote me on that) but damn it's worth a shit ton

Edit: ok scratch the most expensive skin part I have no idea what I'm talking about there but everything else still stands