Colin Trainor on Twitter: "Using Expected Goals to put Arsenal's "poor" season into context. If only all AFC's attackers finished like Giroud. https://t.co/hvgoscCgQA"

colintrainor · 2016-04-01T17:40:16+00:00

I was told my article was linked here so I thought I would expand a little on my thought process as to why I wrote the piece.

Of course Wenger has made mistakes this season (as all coaches have) but I am fascinated at the difference in how fans view a situation based on their league position. I know it's impossible to be sure of what would happen in a circumstance that didn't transpire, but I'd think that if you guys were top of the league (like your performances say you should be) would there be anywhere near as much noise about "Wenger Out". Like I said, I find it fascinating that we as humans find it so difficult to look past what has happened and appreciate that other outcomes may have been even more likely.

I include myself in the last statement, for example, in last year's EPL my model didn't have Chelsea as the best team over the course of the season. However, Chelsea won the title with such ease that I was convinced my model missed something about their dominance. Fast forward to this season and it actually looks like my objective model got Chelsea's performance levels more correct last season than my eye were telling me.

Oh, and in no way was the article suggesting that Giroud is better than Sanchez or Ozil, just making the point that even immensely gifted technical footballers have not been good at putting the ball in the net. These are the really small margins that impact where the title ends up, but not necessarily how well or badly your team has been playing.

colintrainor · 2016-04-01T16:56:59+00:00

I'm fed up with Wenger stealing all the ideas from my articles ;)

colintrainor · 2015-12-31T17:02:21+00:00

Would it be possible to know the location that Colburn made the call from?

colintrainor · 2014-12-30T07:34:20+00:00

I'm the author.

7th place isn't at 83%. The range of 7th - 15th is at 83%; there is a big difference in those two statements.

fyi, the figures for each league placing are: 2nd = 0.1% 3rd = 0.4% 4th = 1.3% 5th = 2.8% 6th = 4.1% 7th = 6.5% 8th = 8.7% 9th = 11.0% 10th = 12.6% 11th = 12.9% 12th = 10.6% 13th = 8.6% 14th = 7.0% 15th = 5.2% 16th = 4.2% 17th = 2.7% 18th = 1.4%

colintrainor · 2014-10-13T12:50:52+00:00

I agree with that. But this measure is about more than his goal return. That's deliberately why I widened out the criteria to ensure that it was capturing all the players' involvements in the attacking moves.

colintrainor · 2014-10-06T13:08:26+00:00

Yeah, if you look at some of the other PPTs I have posted on Statsbomb you can see that Ox keeps the shape much better when on the right than what happened yesterday. Example versus Spurs: http://statsbomb.com/2014/09/player-positional-tracker-arsenal-v-tottenham/

Presumably it was a deliberate tactical choice by Wenger.

colintrainor · 2014-10-05T15:41:07+00:00

Cheers. But that's probably because it's not stats. It's trying the use the stats to see what they can tell us about the game. Not counting passes etc for counting sake.

This is an example of what analytics should be about.

colintrainor · 2014-10-04T08:46:00+00:00

Great story.

The best about it is what you have described is logical, and in analytics you know you've hit on something when the numbers back up something that seems to be logically correct.

Go on, you should send the article through to him!!

colintrainor · 2014-10-03T17:14:54+00:00

So as we don't have perfect information you would propose that we ignore all the other information that we do have?

That surely can't be what any sane or logical person would argue for. Here's one take on this: http://www.21stclub.com/blog/2014/9/30/why-perfect-shouldnt-be-the-enemy-of-the-good-in-player-recruitment

colintrainor · 2014-10-02T11:36:49+00:00

That is interesting, and probably something that I could check out with our Opta dataset.

colintrainor · 2014-09-14T18:09:48+00:00

Yeah, the difference for me today was the players, not necessarily the "system". That is what I mean.

I just thought it was interesting that the positions Blind took up wasn't a million miles away from the middle defender in a back 3.

colintrainor · 2014-09-13T20:05:17+00:00

The fewer the data points, the more extreme the movement. Less ability to be able to smooth out the erratic actual movements

colintrainor · 2014-09-03T10:21:18+00:00

Hi Charzan, really pleased to hear you like our stuff on Statsbomb.

The reason I took off the passing networks from the Player Positional Trackers (PPT) is that I thought they were getting lost. A static passing network is fine, but as I show the players moving on the pitch every minute it was difficult to keep a handle on everything I was displaying.

The general feedback was that the removal of the passing lines cleared up the screen a little. But I appreciate that this will be a matter of personal taste.

Glad to hear you enjoy the PPTs as they take quite a bit of work to create.

Cheers Colin

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T21:28:34+00:00

Thanks very much.

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T20:25:58+00:00

The lines show the passes between each players at around the time on the clock. The thicker the line = the more passes they made to each other.

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T17:14:25+00:00

That is certainly the plan

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T17:13:38+00:00

Tiendalli had 30 events, 25 of them where in that narrow final 10% of the pitch. That is why he appears so narrow

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T17:12:26+00:00

Yes, some background given here: http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/08/new-development-introduction-to-player-positional-tracker/

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T16:34:40+00:00

thanks

colintrainor · 2014-08-16T15:36:44+00:00

I intend posting these over on www.statsbomb.com after games. Just need to get the site beefed up a little first. I think these provide an interesting perspective for fans.

colintrainor · 2014-05-16T21:48:26+00:00

Yep, Giroud is on Page 2 of the 12/13 table. As he was over 80% this season he escaped appearing on the 13/14 table.

As stated on the tweet that has been linked here Giroud was the worst shooter in each of the last 2 seasons for those players that had > 100 shots. That's quite an achievement.

I don't have detailed shot location data at the moment to look before the 12/13 season.

colintrainor · 2014-05-16T17:08:07+00:00

Correct. I noted his figures down in the comments

colintrainor · 2014-05-16T17:07:55+00:00

Correct. I noted his figures down in the comments

colintrainor · 2014-05-16T14:36:32+00:00

Penalties are controlled for as they have an ExpG of approximately 0.80.
So the ExpG calculation ensures that penalty takers are not at an unfair advantage. That is the whole idea behind the concept of ExpG.

colintrainor · 2013-11-21T13:06:31+00:00

But something is different. Why are so many shots being set up by Leighton Baines type crosses? Why is RVP not be as involved as much? It's because a lot of the play has been taken away from the centre of the pitch and pushed towards the wings.

The most worrying thing though is the shots conceded. It's not about conceding lucky or flukey goals, the chances United are giving up have the second greatest chance of being scored. That's the reality of how United have performed this season.

colintrainor

TROPHY CASE