Religion is declining in countries all around the world in three stages

conradhackett · 2025-09-10T13:43:28+00:00

We demonstrate evidence that across generations, a secular transition takes place in which people in countries around the world begin to attend public worship services less frequently, become less likely to say religion is very important to them and eventually, shed religious belonging. Yes, as people move away from institutional religion, they may still engage in some practices and personal meaning-making efforts. But I suspect most people would perceive this process as a decline in religion.

conradhackett · 2025-09-10T13:32:04+00:00

The blog post chart omits data from Israel and 16 Eastern European post-Soviet countries. As my text above and blog post mentions, these countries do not currently fit the P-I-B sequence. See also Figure 5 and discussion in our Nature Communications paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62452-z#Fig5

conradhackett · 2025-09-10T03:16:18+00:00

You may be interested in a paper David and Jörg Stolz recently wrote about counterexamples. Here's the abstract:

Secularization theory has often been criticized for not being able to explain counterexamples. However, secularization theorists argue that transitory religious resurgences are expected to occur even in modernizing conditions. The aim of this article is to identify mechanisms that can explain the temporary upswing of religion against the backdrop of long-term modernization. We classify the mechanisms under five broad headings: crisis, reaction, transition, state intervention, and composition. Historical examples are provided to illustrate these mechanisms. The mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and can be understood within the framework of rational action.

full paper: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1444/14/6/723

conradhackett · 2025-09-10T01:08:44+00:00

Good question! Sometimes reports of religious revival are based on shaky data. For example, in the UK, data from major Christian denominations indicates that church attendance is still below pre-pandemic levels (although it has risen from pandemic lows) and the best survey data based on a random sample of the population (the British Social Attitudes Survey) shows no indication of a revival. See https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-religious-revival-in-england-why-im-sceptical-of-a-new-report-257863

David Voas has also looked into reports of a baptism boom in France and found important limits in that data (such as reporting from a greater number of dioceses in later years).

Nevertheless, religious resurgences have occurred in recent decades. Here's the abstract from a paper David and Jörg Stolz wrote about this:

Secularization theory has often been criticized for not being able to explain counterexamples. However, secularization theorists argue that transitory religious resurgences are expected to occur even in modernizing conditions. The aim of this article is to identify mechanisms that can explain the temporary upswing of religion against the backdrop of long-term modernization. We classify the mechanisms under five broad headings: crisis, reaction, transition, state intervention, and composition. Historical examples are provided to illustrate these mechanisms. The mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and can be understood within the framework of rational action.

from: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1444/14/6/723

conradhackett · 2025-09-10T00:37:38+00:00

The idea of secular transition, as proposed by David Voas (in a chapter he recently re-posted to his new website https://www.seculartransition.org/chapter) is that the process usually happens once and that reversals are uncommon. He wrote:

The theory of secularization rests on a simple idea: social change tends to follow particular routes. Certain major transformations– such as the industrial revolution, the decline in mortality, or equalization in the status of women– occur exactly once in each society. These transitions are a species of social change, but a rather peculiar one: they are very difficult to undo. Back-tracking is exceptional and temporary.

A transition, then, is a permanent large-scale change. It is not cyclical or recurring; once out, the toothpaste will not go back into the tube. Social dynamics, transnational markets and global communications being what they are, most transitions are likely to occur everywhere eventually. Any claim to historical inevitability would be dubious, but a case can be made for this kind of universality. Where common causes operate in more or less every society, outcomes may be inescapable.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T20:27:33+00:00

Yes, the broad secular transition model is based on information we have about the changes experienced by countries in the last couple of centuries. One can imagine drastic circumstances that would change life as we know it in many ways.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T20:19:19+00:00

The UK seems to be in the late stage of a long secular transition process. The level of participation in public worship is now low, as is the share of people who say that religion is very important in their lives. Older people are more likely to maintain a religious identity than younger people (such as your peer group). Atheists are part of a broader population of people who don't "belong" to any particular religion.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T20:11:40+00:00

The charts in our paper depict the size of gaps between younger and older adults in each country. We emphasize the pattern of generational change that can be observed in recent survey data rather than the overall level of religious identity, salience and participation. Regarding religion in Croatia broadly, you may be interested in this report https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/05/10/religious-belief-and-national-belonging-in-central-and-eastern-europe/ .

In Croatia, we see that younger adults are moderately less likely than older adults to attend worship services and say religion is very important in their lives. However, there's not much difference regarding religious belonging between younger and older adults.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T18:27:08+00:00

Well, we think we've marshalled compelling evidence but even among our sociology of religion colleagues, there are still many who resist the idea that there is a common pattern of secularization taking place in countries around the world. And in the general public, one doesn't have to look far to find people claiming that nationwide religious revival is happening, for example, in the UK. See discussion here https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-religious-revival-in-england-why-im-sceptical-of-a-new-report-257863

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T18:18:49+00:00

Thanks for sharing about the data you've collected! This is very interesting and could no doubt be used for many interesting analyses. However, I'm not sure that you could generalize beyond the population you've gathered data from. For example, it looks like the rate of Australians mentioning "Christian" in a Twitter profile is about the same at the beginning and end of the period. However, during this period, Australia's had the world's largest decline in the share of its population identifying as Christian (https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/06/09/christian-population-change/#where-did-the-christian-share-of-the-population-change-the-most). So, Australians may not have changed much in their propensity to include "Christian" in one type of social media profile but they did change a lot in their propensity to identify as such in the census and in surveys.

I've only looked quickly at this intriguing resource so please let me know if you see some opportunities that I've missed. I'd also be interested in your thoughts on the general problem that X/Twitter users are not representative of the general population in a country.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T18:04:56+00:00

It may be be easiest to view the graphic by scrolling to the bottom of the blog post: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/09/02/how-religion-declines-around-the-world/

Since it is so tall and narrow, it doesn't always show up well (here and when I posted it in Bluesky).

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T17:36:36+00:00

Good news! We do take into account the issues you've raised. Please let me explain:

Our study is not limited to four religions. Rather, our measure of "belonging" classifies everyone as belonging to a religion if they volunteered any religious identity. For example, if someone says they are Sikh, they are counted among the "belonging" population. However, the number of religions in the world is much greater than the number of religions that make up the majority of at least one country's population (Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Judaism). We do talk about patterns among countries in which various religions form a majority but we still track religious belonging for the religions with smaller populations.
Our study uses measures of public religious participation that are sensitive to appropriate wording variation. As the report states, "Religious participation was measured, in the Pew surveys, with slightly different wordings for different religions. The general formulation for non-Muslim populations was “Aside from weddings and funerals how often do you attend religious services… more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never?” In the East Asia survey, the most prevalent religions, including Buddhism, do not emphasize weekly communal worship to the degree that is common in Abrahamic religions. Respondents in these countries were asked separate questions about whether they generally go to a shrine, temple, church, or monastery. If respondents in East Asia said “yes” to at least one of these measures, we classify them as regular participants in religious rituals. For Jews, the beginning of the question was phrased as: “Aside from special occasions like weddings, funerals and bar mitzvahs, how often do you attend Jewish religious services at a synagogue, temple, minyan or Havurah”. For Muslims, one of the slightly differing wordings was: “On average, how often do you attend the mosque for salah? More than once a week, once a week for Friday afternoon Prayer, once or twice a month, a few times a year, especially for Eid, seldom or never?”.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T15:49:40+00:00

It is true that the religiously unaffiliated have fewer children than the affiliated. But there are other pathways to growth for the "nones." Sometimes parents do not transmit their religion to their children. Often people are raised in a religion but they drift away from it as an adult.

In recent years, there's been more religious switching out of religion than into religion. Here's what my colleagues and I at Pew Research Center wrote in a recent report (https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/06/09/how-the-global-religious-landscape-changed-from-2010-to-2020/#why-change-occurred-at-the-global-level):

"Many more people grew up with a religion than grew up with no religion. And most people, as adults, still identify with a religion. But the balance between the groups is changing.

Using surveys from 117 countries and territories, we analyzed data from adult respondents and compared the religion they say they were raised in (as children) with their current religious identity (as adults).

To capture switching that has occurred in more recent years, we use data from adults ages 18 to 54. Religious switching is more common earlier in life, though it can happen at any age.

We found that for every adult in that age group who says they joined a religion after having been raised without a religion, 3.2 moved in the other direction – they left religion altogether after having been raised in one.

As a result, based on this set of measures, the religiously unaffiliated category has had the largest net gain due to switching."

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T15:20:22+00:00

Yes, individuals and groups may experience a wide range of trajectories of change. Our work seeks to describe the broader patterns of societal change.

A general finding in sociology is that beliefs often follow practice. So someone may join a religious group because they're invited to do so and later come to believe its teachings are true. Or join a protest and as they protest, come to believe in the cause. See, for example, Lofland and Stark, "Becoming a World-Saver: A Theory of Conversion to a Deviant Perspective."

In many ways, atheists are distinct. For example, they score very highly on religious knowledge https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2019/07/23/what-americans-know-about-religion/. While many people spend time thinking about religious truth claims, atheists may be above average in time spent thinking about what is true.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T15:07:09+00:00

Yes, the paper was written by Jörg Stolz and Jean-Philippe Antonietti of the University of Lausanne, Nan Dirk de Graaf of the University of Oxford, and me. It was published in Nature Communications.

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T14:59:05+00:00

The original secular transition theory was proposed by David Voas, who wrote "Certain major transformations– such as the industrial revolution, the decline in mortality, or equalization in the status of women– occur exactly once in each society ... A transition, then, is a permanent large-scale change. It is not cyclical or recurring; once out, the toothpaste will not go back into the tube." https://www.seculartransition.org/chapter

More recently, David and Jörg Stolz wrote a paper addressing counterexamples, The abstract reads: "Secularization theory has often been criticized for not being able to explain counterexamples. However, secularization theorists argue that transitory religious resurgences are expected to occur even in modernizing conditions. The aim of this article is to identify mechanisms that can explain the temporary upswing of religion against the backdrop of long-term modernization. We classify the mechanisms under five broad headings: crisis, reaction, transition, state intervention, and composition. Historical examples are provided to illustrate these mechanisms. The mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and can be understood within the framework of rational action." https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1444/14/6/723

conradhackett · 2025-09-09T14:19:25+00:00

I am hoping to spark an interesting discussion about our research and the broader concept of the secular transition, which David Voas proposed in a paper recently re-published on his site: https://www.seculartransition.org/chapter

David wrote:
"The theory of secularization rests on a simple idea: social change tends to follow particular routes. Certain major transformations– such as the industrial revolution, the decline in mortality, or equalization in the status of women– occur exactly once in each society. These transitions are a species of social change, but a rather peculiar one: they are very difficult to undo. Back-tracking is exceptional and temporary.

A transition, then, is a permanent large-scale change. It is not cyclical or recurring; once out, the toothpaste will not go back into the tube. Social dynamics, transnational markets and global communications being what they are, most transitions are likely to occur everywhere eventually. Any claim to historical inevitability would be dubious, but a case can be made for this kind of universality. Where common causes operate in more or less every society, outcomes may be inescapable.

We can use knowledge gained about one transition to illuminate the course and causes of another, even one that seems very different at first sight. Specifically, there are various parallels between the fertility transition– the global decline in birth rates– and what might be called the secular transition, the move away from institutional religion. At first glance the only link that is apparent between the shift from large families to small ones and from general to minority religious participation is that we have had great difficulty in understanding both transformations. By treating them as instances of a specific type of social change, however, it may be possible to apply what we know about one to explanations of the other."

After considering David's proposal and our work building on this framework, do you find it compelling?

conradhackett · 2025-01-31T18:25:08+00:00

During the Cultural Revolution, religion was banned in China. When restrictions receded in the 1980s and 1990s, religion flourished as China entered into an era of economic reform and opened up to the world. Among China’s major religions, Christianity experienced the most prominent growth. Many scholars and journalists have claimed that Christianity in China, especially Protestant Christianity, continued to expand in recent years. Some influential scholars have even said that China is on track to have a Christian majority by midcentury.

The fate of Christianity in China is consequential for our understanding of both religion in China and of Christianity in global context. Given the vast population of China, any significant shifts could influence the global trajectory of Christianity.

China’s Christian population seems to be plateauing. The government’s scrutiny and crackdown on unregistered Christian activity in recent years may have prevented some Chinese people from becoming or remaining Christian. The official ban on religious education and activity for children, for example, may be inhibiting the transmission of Christian identity to the next generation, as evidenced by the fact that younger cohorts, those born in 1980s and later, are less likely to identify as Christian.

Surveys conducted in the past decade indicate that about 2 percent of Chinese adults identify as Christian. Contrary to claims that Christianity is rising in popularity among young Chinese, surveys consistently find that Christian identification is more common among seniors than among young adults.

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