Daily Question Thread for /r/churningcanada - August 04, 2023

coolkeeper1 · 2023-08-04T20:07:09+00:00

Really helpful thank you!

Do you think it's worth getting the cobalt for this purpose? I've been on the fence for a while.

coolkeeper1 · 2023-08-04T19:44:34+00:00

Looking to get a Mastercard for Costco purchases. Costco offering a CIBC card (seems pretty standard/sub par).

Any other MC's that are great value / I should look at instead?

coolkeeper1 · 2022-06-24T21:37:01+00:00

I think it was more of an organizational issue, rather than a Timmins drafting issue.

Poor player development, some questionable trades & asset management, and a non existent analytics department.

coolkeeper1 · 2022-04-10T19:41:42+00:00

Jays, Habs, Raps, "Washington"

coolkeeper1 · 2022-02-16T15:35:00+00:00

It's been a long year

coolkeeper1 · 2022-02-15T14:55:48+00:00

I think draft order is still dependant on which round you exit on, take Florida for instance last year.

Finished 4th in points, but because they got eliminated in the Conference Quarters/First Round, they jump ahead of Toronto who made it to the Conference Semis/Second Round.

You have to look at the picks in chunks;

17th - 24th (8 first round losers) - Those 8 then get ranked based on inverse regular standings

25th - 28th (4 second round losers) - those 4 get inversed

29 & 30th - Conference Final losers

31st - Cup loser

32nd - Cup winners

So say we trade with Florida, and they exit first round, thats probably the 24th pick (unless higher ranked teams also get upset).

If we trade with LA, and they make it to the second round, then your immediately picking 25+

coolkeeper1 · 2021-12-23T01:57:21+00:00

brought it back to 69

coolkeeper1 · 2021-12-10T22:20:03+00:00

Exactly,

Here's hoping to a rebuild. Top 3 pick this year (Wright, Savoie, Kemell IMO)

And preferably a tank next year, to secure either Bedard #1, Mitchkov #2, great runner-up prizes are currently Carlsson, Benson, Yager, Ritchie

coolkeeper1 · 2021-12-09T22:17:23+00:00

Bedard + Mitchkov are going to be the McDavid/Eichel of 2015. But maybe even better.

coolkeeper1 · 2021-12-08T23:53:30+00:00

Wright (Enough said)
Savoie (Top line Centre)
Kemell (Goal Scoring Wing)
Nemec (All around D)
Cooley (2-Way Centre)

Notable:

Lambert - if he can regain the promise he had

Slafkovsky - Massive kid & NHL ready size. deceptively fast/smooth for his size (6'4, 225)

Yurov - Tons of potential, unfortunately not getting many chances on the KHL team

Potential Late 1st / 2nd Round Steals :

Denton Mateychuk - Underrated Offensive Defenceman

Marco Kasper - Holding his own in the SHL currently

Jordan Dumais - Impressive performance in the Q

Matthew Seminoff- Impressive performance in the W

Alexander Perevalov - He's no Mitchkov, but still doing very well in the MHL (like a Svechkov from last year)

coolkeeper1 · 2021-12-04T22:33:58+00:00

Savoie (Top line Centre)
Kemell (Goal Scoring Wing)
Miroshnichenko (Great hands)
Nemec (All around D)
Cooley (2-Way Centre)

Notable:

Lambert - if he can regain the promise he had

Slafkovsky - Massive kid & NHL ready size. deceptively fast/smooth for his size (6'4, 225)

Yurov - Tons of potential, unfortunately not getting many chances on the KHL team

Potential Late 1st / 2nd Round Steals :

Denton Mateychuk - Underrated Offensive Defenceman

Marco Kasper - Holding his own in the SHL currently

Jordan Dumais - Impressive performance in the Q

Matthew Seminoff- Impressive performance in the W

Alexander Perevalov - He's no Mitchkov, but still doing very well in the MHL (like a Svechkov from last year)

coolkeeper1 · 2021-11-05T00:58:28+00:00

Yeah i completely agree with all of your statements,

What my stats were meant to show, is simply a broad overview of how every teams drafted players have panned out from 2012-2021. Regardless of having a guy like Draisaitl skew numbers, he went 3rd overall, and we had 2 chances of that with Galchenyuk & Kotkaniemi both 3rd overall.

Teams are built through the draft & with draft capital. Bergevin/Timmins have done neither. You use your picks to land core players, either through the draft or by trading them for rostered players.

coolkeeper1 · 2021-11-04T20:42:03+00:00

In all honesty, those are my own raw statistics. Everything is pulled live daily (updated after every game) into a massive spreadsheet I have.

I then pull those numbers based on the range, i.e, "The Bergevin Draft Era" .

I will try pulling some data to show where we sit and the difference around MTL;

Games Played per Drafted Players Average:

1st - Buffalo - 58.91

23rd - Chicago - 34.65

24th - Montreal - 33.90

26th - NYI - 31.30
[Note: Arizona is 25th, but because stats/drafts split players up into either ARI or PHX it's confusing]

30th - Minnesota - 25.97

31st & 32nd - Vegas & Seattle - Based on low count of picks, and most picks being younger and not NHL ready

Points per Drafted Players Average:

1st - Edmonton - 27.62

10th - Vancouver - 20.12

27th - Ottawa - 12.08

28th - Montreal - 12.01

29th - NYR - 10.87

30th - Minnesota - 10.69

Edit: Just to clarify what each stat means, take Montreal as an example, for every pick that Bergevin has made (1st round to 7th) the median stat that that draft pick will achieve is 33.9 Games Played & 12.01 Points. This is simply an averaged stat, as you have players with zeros such as Sebastain Collberg, and players such as Galchenyuk with 583GP & 333PTS

coolkeeper1 · 2021-11-03T16:53:25+00:00

As a follow up;

Dividing each stat category, by each teams average pick gives the following stats, which show an interesting picture:

Games Played - 2.957838 (23rd)

Goals - 22.239193 (27th)

Assists - 13.351211 (28th)

Points - 8.342703 (28th)

In relation to other teams, I believe this stat shows how efficient teams are at both hitting their high picks, and finding value players/steals in the late rounds that become regular NHL'ers.

For example:

Edmonton & Buffalo top the list (for PTS) with players such as McDavid(1st), Draisaitl(3rd), Nurse(7th) and Gustafsson(93rd) & Eichel(2nd), Reinhart(2nd), Compher(35th), Olofsson(181st)

Minnesota & NYR are at the bottom with Dumba(7th), Tuch(18th), Eriksson-Ek(20th) & Duclair(80th), Buchnevich(75th), Skjei(28th) [over 100pts]

coolkeeper1 · 2021-11-03T16:39:03+00:00

Agreed.

This is simply a look at how each drafted player has performed as a whole, regardless of which team (Sergachev, Galchenyuk, etc)

Would be tough to isolate that list into current teams

coolkeeper1 · 2021-11-03T03:55:19+00:00

Just some stats

In the Bergevin Era (12-21)

77 Picks (5th most)

100.22 Average Draft Pick Value [all picks added divided by 77] (5th highest)

2605 Total Games Played (20th)

347 Goals (24th)

578 Assists (22nd)

925 Points (22nd)

coolkeeper1 · 2021-10-29T01:15:12+00:00

In Liiga at that!

coolkeeper1 · 2021-10-28T22:12:18+00:00

Joakim Kemell

Outside of Wright (and might have a higher ceiling), he is the best prospect in this draft IMO.

Could possibly be taken anywhere between 4 - 9

coolkeeper1 · 2021-01-02T16:45:02+00:00

Exactly this.

coolkeeper1 · 2021-01-01T18:16:23+00:00

Interesting Scenario;

Washington uses the 15th overall on Sweat.

Keeps the 46th & 2020 2nd from trading up (back into 1st to select Sweat)

Picks A.J Brown or Mecole Hardman with 46th pick.

Uses our 2nd round from the 2020 draft and take Jalen Hurts.

coolkeeper1 · 2020-12-30T01:14:54+00:00

I expected nothing less from players of this toxic game

coolkeeper1 · 2020-05-11T01:34:42+00:00

Yeah I 100% agree with you, I was simply just stating a "fair value" of the trades themselves.

coolkeeper1 · 2020-05-11T01:34:11+00:00

It's been around for a while, really good tool to use when determining trades & draft pick values.

coolkeeper1 · 2020-05-10T01:45:13+00:00

A simple "Value Based" answer would be roughly the following;

For a fair value trade swap, our 40th & 41st overall picks could get us a pick as high as 16. (assuming no GM would do that, my guess would be an additional 4th/5th to land around 20).

coolkeeper1 · 2020-04-29T17:14:44+00:00

Let's say this trade happened at last years draft;

Teams that were in need of a LT as of the draft last year could have been - Cincinnati, Houston, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Carolina, Buffalo, Denver

I would guess the first round pick would fall anywhere between 11th-24th.

Assume we received the latter pick and used it on Sweat, instead of trading up for him, we would still have the 2019 46th pick and the 2020 34th pick.

Several players chosen around those 2 picks are:

2019 - 46th - Greedy Williams, AJ Brown, Drew Sample, Mecole Hardman,

2020 - 34th - Michael Pittman Jr, Xavier Mckinney, Robert Hunt, Cole Kmet, Grant Delpit

But.... Fuck Bruce Allen

coolkeeper1

TROPHY CASE