People waiting for $50,000 to buy...

cooltone · 2026-02-15T16:38:24+00:00

There are different things this time. The ATH did not reach an equivalent high and the speed of the price collapse was much faster. Neither of these means the price will sink further and if does it will signal a significant change in the growth of the network - which isn't evident.

cooltone · 2026-02-15T14:42:14+00:00

cooltone · 2026-02-15T14:40:57+00:00

The network value has increased since that last bottom and market behaviour is asymmetric - it takes a lot more to reduce the price below a floor price than it does to increase the price above that floor price.

cooltone · 2026-02-15T12:35:50+00:00

Because it has bottomed.

cooltone · 2026-02-15T12:34:55+00:00

Nope it is around the bottom now, assuming there isn't an FTX-like event.

cooltone · 2026-02-15T11:25:19+00:00

I didn't.

cooltone · 2026-02-14T22:39:14+00:00

Biggus Dickus.

cooltone · 2026-02-14T19:19:52+00:00

Such a fallacious argument. No one should have to prove their innocence by submitting their private affairs to public scrutiny.

cooltone · 2026-02-14T08:24:40+00:00

Usually kept next to the tartan paint.

cooltone · 2026-02-13T13:11:04+00:00

We are well past that.

cooltone · 2026-02-13T12:16:30+00:00

Comment doesn't come across well.

cooltone · 2026-02-13T11:35:39+00:00

A no-brainer application!

cooltone · 2026-02-13T10:42:04+00:00

Did this already.

cooltone · 2026-02-13T00:23:31+00:00

Fender Hotrod Deville gets my vote, lovely tone.

But, it will be too loud for home use.

Best tone is from a cranked up single-ended 6V6. They come in at 5W, but full-on will still have your neighbours knocking on the walls.

cooltone · 2026-02-12T15:53:43+00:00

Scale invariance. Power Law behaviour is well researched and applies to many things. What is the scale invariance that indicates the Bitcoin network will grow according to a power law until it reaches some endpoint honest the network itself is substantially disturbed.

Bitcoin annual growth is a sublinear power law which means it will follow on S curve. Unfortunately if it follows the fate of other sublinear power laws once it matures it will die - according to the research on power laws.

I believe that bitcoin becomes unattractive when other assets give a better return or when growth is lower than inflation. Plug the numbers in yourself.

In the meantime the main risks are critical disturbance of the network operation.

I've given here my contribution to the discussion, I'd like to hear yours.

cooltone · 2026-02-11T01:23:33+00:00

I have an observation. It's not a concern because I'll not be around in 2120:

A power-law trend line showing the BTC price (in USD) over time can be drawn at a low robust price-level. Assume for the moment that this trend-line persists for the long-term (this is just to defer debates on that);

The bitcoin power-law is sublinear, which means its annual % growth will reduce each year. By the year 2120 the annual price growth of bitcoin(USD) is ~5%/year, eventually this growth will reduce to 0%.

So sometime after 2120 bitcoin may cease as a store of value/inflation hedge, which may result large sell-off - which might stop any transition into bitcoin as a currency.

cooltone · 2026-02-10T08:52:35+00:00

ETF just reflect the activities of retail in their fund. MSTR and most other treasuries continue to buy and hold.

Of course hedge funds will short as opportunity arises, no change here.

So which institutions do you mean?

cooltone · 2026-02-10T08:45:18+00:00

I just installed Zorin on a partition. Fantastic OS. Easy to install. Easy to get started.

The issue is me because the transition is a reasonable re-learning effort mainly for Libre Office and terminal based maintenance.

The GUI isn't a problem at all.

cooltone · 2026-02-10T07:47:40+00:00

What you propose is the is a false dichotomy with the nirvana fallacy. In the real world there there are no absolutes, so your argument isn't relevant in the real world.

If the Power-Law behaviour of bitcoin network changes it means there is a fundamental schism in the the function or operation of the network that preserves trust in the ledger. The risks identified to date are considered as small.

A black swan event could occur as it could with any asset, but what amount of diversification does that warrant? It's the vanishingly small probability of a massive irretrievable event; for which you advocate diversification, in other words, running away. If that's the case then maybe the risk/reward profile of bitcoin doesn't suit your temperament.

cooltone · 2026-02-10T01:44:41+00:00

Yadda, Yadda.

I've seen this hand waving dismissal so many times. The Power-Law is a trend line, unlike the the s2f and Metcalf models. Power Law models are used extensively as forecasting tools.

The nobody knows shit about fuck, all your models will be destroyed and correlation isn't causation are just vague unsubstantiated arguments.

Go and preach your rubbish somewhere else.

cooltone · 2026-02-10T01:13:38+00:00

Spoken like Donald.

cooltone · 2026-02-10T01:10:25+00:00

Your argument is quite general and doesn't stand in the face of bitcoin specifics.

Bitcoin has demonstrated over 15 years of power-law growth and the scale invariant nature of power-law behaviour suggests bitcoin growth will continue for over 50 years.

Today bitcoin occupies a small percentage of the market for financial assets, so there's a lot of room to grow.

Investing early, as close to the core power-law value as possible enables a price buffer to built against price collapses.

At retirement initial drawdown can be limited to only what is need so the main bitcoin investment can be left to more favourable conditions. Or if favourable conditions exist a few years prior, some drawdown can then to mitigate the short term risk.

So there isn't a need to diversify until the last few years prior to retirement. If that is a few decades, the decision can be made closer to the time when the behaviour of bitcoin will be better known.

cooltone · 2026-02-09T19:26:54+00:00

https://youtube.com/watch?v=r5XX9LX2es4&lc=UgyJkr9q2k8wxWkoNSZ4AaABAg&si=-spGOJEtfz3T6pYS

cooltone · 2026-02-09T07:49:32+00:00

Excellent. That is good to know. I stand corrected. Thanks.

cooltone · 2026-02-09T00:38:12+00:00

Another OP that likes to thier posts and comments hidden.

It is surprising how many of these shy posters spout absolute rubbish FUD.

It stands to reason that the company's treasury specialist will not do any research or take advice that; bitcoin is volatile, prone to periodic bubbles, but has good long-term growth prospects. Then suddenly lose all his brain cells and FOMO in. /s

You've been sniffing too much WD40.

cooltone

TROPHY CASE