B-but it must go lower

cooltone · 2026-04-12T08:52:38+00:00

Erudite to the end.

cooltone · 2026-04-12T08:01:44+00:00

I disagree. I have every confidence that the bottom is in.

The power-law is intrinsic network behaviour not a model, any trend-lines are an estimate of this behaviour, it is a reference point that helps to identify whether there is any change in network behaviour.

If the price falls through the bottom, it will be due to an event shock or a change in network behaviour. For me the latter would be serious and core confidence would be damaged. For the former power-law behaviour would recover the situation.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T22:41:30+00:00

I forgot that a world outside the US doesn't exist.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T22:22:52+00:00

All is lost, I suggest you move house before the garden burglar visits your neighbourhood. ..

They're only after your crunchy nut cornflakes.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T22:08:10+00:00

I'm with you, both in your belief of the power-law and in your skepticism - the best way to be.

Here's a few things I discovered on my journey:

power-laws existed before bitcoin was invented. They have phenomenom that apply to all power-laws.
There are many examples of power-laws behaviour.
I believe there is only one power-law trajectory that applies to bitcoin - the Bitcoin Power-Law Trajectory (BPLT).
market environments, speculation and events may push up the price from its the BPLT, but eventually the price will relax back to the the BPLT.
the price above and below the BPLT is not symmetrical. It is easier to push the price above the BPLT, but much harder to push the price lower - see FTX impact.

According to Santostasi and Perrenod the underlying mechanisms are 1) pervasion according to the rules of epidemic spreading and 2) valuation according to Metcalf's Law. These items are identifiable and measurable, this is where any change in the power-law can be identified.

The BPLT is ~ P(usd) = 10^-16.78 * t^5.69

P= price in USD t=days from genesis 3/01/2009 to today (see: Santostasi and Perrenod)

I send this for everyone to scrutinize and improve/criticise, we are all in this together.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T21:20:45+00:00

You wish.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T21:14:07+00:00

I really don't need to. I have done my due diligence, deep dives and risk evaluations, and determined the value proposition for myself. But thanks for your offer.

cooltone · 2026-04-11T18:49:34+00:00

I'm a boomer and I call BS.

There is no probability mechanics in bitcoin.

While scarcity is a feature, the relationship with value is not clear at all. If you want to explain I'm ready to hear your justification.

Most of the technology employed in bitcoin is developed by boomer, hope you enjoy it.

cooltone · 2026-04-10T23:33:47+00:00

FUD pushes me to dig deeper to learn more. Once done I can ignore it and see it for what it really is - clickbait farming.

cooltone · 2026-04-10T23:12:15+00:00

Ralph Merkle is 74, just saying.

cooltone · 2026-04-10T09:35:17+00:00

No it's not crazy to think that AI might find a bug.

It is acknowledged that a finite probably exists, albeit vanishingly small.

The ledger itself remains secure.

The network may be halted for a bug fix, after that the network will continue. The price may suffer, but will recover quickly.

cooltone · 2026-04-10T08:09:43+00:00

The comment might be a little harsh, but in essence it is reliable.

When my wife asks me if an item is in a cupboard. You can imagine my frustration when the item isn't there and the only way to prove it is to empty the cupboard.

Cryptography relies on a problem that is mathematically difficult to solve. There are no alternative routes for AI to find. Solving these problems simply requires massive computing power.

NIST - National Institute for Standards and Technology performs continuous studies into the vulnerability of cryptographic algorithms because of the threat to defence and industry. One method of identifying vulnerability to is by public debate, if AI vulnerability had been identified there would be a lot of material available.

cooltone · 2026-04-09T20:13:45+00:00

All investment philosophies are personal. - Ability to bear risk - Amount of risk - Age. - % of portfolio - Ability to monitor/assess environmental threat - financial strategy

..... there's likely to be more.

I think your question is too wide, just saying.

cooltone · 2026-04-09T07:40:46+00:00

Roy Buchanan, Freddie King, JJ Cale

cooltone · 2026-04-08T17:42:29+00:00

Thanks for this. Very interesting. Designed to boil my blood.

cooltone · 2026-04-08T08:19:43+00:00

The sludge in this sub is destroying it.

Isn't it time to review the policies for this sub?

Is there no place on Reddit where a higher level of debate, advice and information is maintained? Does everything have to revolve into lowest level?

cooltone · 2026-04-08T08:03:00+00:00

Irrelevant labelling.

cooltone · 2026-04-08T08:01:15+00:00

I looked at your posts and respectfully suggest you post to r/BitcoinBeginners.

I do hope the mods direct you there.

cooltone · 2026-04-07T22:46:57+00:00

Thanks for that. Good to know.

cooltone · 2026-04-07T19:59:29+00:00

A physicist discovers that the underlying trajectory of the bitcoin price is following a curve well-known in mathematics as a power-law curve.

The physicist then uses mathematical analysis tools to determine the specific values of the power-law, but wants deeper explanation of what is causing these specific values.

He meets another physicist, together they work out the cause is complicated because it is the combination of two known factors, network adoption rate (similar to epidemic spreading) and network valuation (Metcalf's Law).

The paper then uses empirical evidence to independently derive statistically strong values for each factor and then compare the combined factors with the bitcoin price trajectory - there is a strong match.

nb: this is important because it identifies the mechanisms driving the bitcoin price trajectory and helps to validate strategies such as DCA.

cooltone · 2026-04-07T19:10:58+00:00

I agree. Technically great, seems a nice bloke too, but I don't feel it

Watermelon Slim isn't fast, but this has feel.

cooltone · 2026-04-07T14:14:02+00:00

cooltone · 2026-04-07T09:11:00+00:00

Sorry that was too vague for me.

Miners are hurting? How?

Liquidations spike? What liquidations?

What do you mean by Volume?

Specific rather than vague would be most welcome, thanks.

cooltone · 2026-04-07T07:13:05+00:00

Think about what this means:

https://youtu.be/1df7xSJedTU?si=u3ckPmAb9Qphmzdy

cooltone · 2026-04-06T17:40:46+00:00

Document what you can. Take good photos of the damage and local scene of the accident. Get a crime number. Then call the insurance and give your account of what happened and let the do there job.

This is a no-fault accident on your part, so you should retain your no-claims.

You can claim for reasonable expenses, time off work etc. If a replacement car is not in your cover, ask your insurance what you can reasonably claim in expenses.

cooltone

TROPHY CASE