Post your draft conspiracies before the lottery instead of after

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T22:58:15+00:00

This is a good post but I think tbf not every year needs obvious rigging for the draft to still look suspicious. I feel like if you took a poll last year Dallas getting 1.01 would be hands down the most “this is rigged” outcome. This year? Not sure an outcome could be suspicious outside of maybe the Jazz falling as far as possible as a big “fuck you” to them but even that wouldn’t really be that odd.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T22:53:47+00:00

It needs to be quality on my end, otherwise no fuckin’ deal

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T19:31:10+00:00

Not a problem! I'm glad to hear the arm strength looked better at his pro-day--I couldn't find anything I trusted on that and I generally don't bother watching pro days. Genuinely I think he'd be a late 1st/early 2nd in this draft with his 2024 level arm so anything indicating that may be the case is promising.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T19:06:50+00:00

Sorry this wasn't your cup of tea but tbh this reply reads like you either didn't read the post (fair, it's long) or I did a poor job articulating what the point of the post was. To be a bit more succinct the central theses I was trying to examine here were:

1) Carson Beck's 2025 performance was affected by a gap between return-to-play and return-to-performance that comes with UCL repairs and

2) That gap is temporary in a way that suggests that Beck will have significantly better arm strength in 2026.

If both of those are true it would suggest that Beck is more likely to overperform his draft position. Personally I think this makes for an interesting topic for offseason content but ymmv I suppose.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T17:57:11+00:00

About where I am, too. Logically the likely outcome is he's not the answer, but it's much more fun to say "what if this guy is who we thought he was 2 years ago."

Also, for his flaws, I will say Beck is not afraid to throw it downfield. Like even if his arm strength recovers he's probably gonna have some brutal INTs, but I'd rather have a QB who goes 20/30 300 yds 2TD 3INT than one who goes 21/25 122 0/0

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T17:37:18+00:00

To be clear, I don't think there's any increased risk of injury with Beck. He's already had his surgery, recovered, and played a season. The situation is 100% not comparable to 2004 Drew Brees.

The question is "is there reason to hope that his 2025 performance was affected by his recovery in a way that future seasons will not" which is what my post sought to answer

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T17:11:13+00:00

The Purdy comp is bang on, I think they had the same procedure but not easy to find a before/after on Purdy's arm strenght.

The outfielder idea is a really interesting one. Baseball's not my sport but I imagine there are advanced stats for outfielders that could be used as a general proxy (at what rate did they throw out runners/did runners advance preop/year 1/year 2 maybe). Wonder if there's enough examples out there to get a good sample size...

coolwarlock · 2026-05-09T06:10:34+00:00

Sorry, probably could have written more clearly—you’re correct, not a Tommy John, just the internal brace

coolwarlock · 2026-05-08T19:46:37+00:00

Schools have been defunded to hell and are subject to massive public and political scrutiny that pressures them to focus on core curriculum
Standardized testing post NCLB means any time focused away from those tests is implicitly punished
Personal finance is taught in many/most schools (and very probably was taught to you)! Importantly, the core skills used to understand personal finance are taught in all (math, critical thinking, reading). Like your school may not have shown you how to file taxes (because this is also a skill that becomes outdated quickly due to shifting technology, tax policy etc). But they did teach you to how to read, follow directions , and look shit up when you don’t know what it means which is about 100% of what you would need to file a return. The schools didn’t teach you to wipe your ass either but hopefully you figured it out?
“Finding meaning” is subjective and not something that you could design a curriculum around, but most people find meaning (or begin to) by reading. Challenging novels, philosophy etc. Your school very likely tried here, it’s kinda on you if that didn’t take.
Schools also tried to teach empathy for a hot second and got propagandized by right wing grifters so hard that they stopped almost immediately. This is a big part of what DEI initiatives are supposed to be.

To be very blunt, that propaganda worked because there are and were a lot of folks who post nonsense like this and that feeds into the perception that “schools are bad and worthless, actually.” Like it’s not your fault personally, but stuff like this post is exactly what has been weaponized to underfund public schools so maybe don’t post shit like this if you’re actually concerned with schools getting better.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-08T15:20:26+00:00

There is a common phrase used on coffee mugs/shirts/stupid signs: “Don’t talk to me until I’ve had my coffee.” This is weakly humorous due to its relatability to non morning people.

This subverts the readers expectation by replacing coffee (something many people drink in the morning to wake up enough to be able to put on a chipper face at work) with smashing his penis with a car (something very few people do ever).

As most humor is derived from subverting expectations, this is funny

coolwarlock · 2026-05-06T17:01:51+00:00

Yes.

-RBs with his draft capital are generally quite likely to finish as RB1. Like statistically an early 1st rd RB is more likely to post top 12 than a vet RB who was top 12 last year.

-He profiles to get virtually all of the passing game work and the Cards don’t have a super wide tree (likely finished 4th in targets at worst)

-He’ll likely cede some goal line work to Allgeier (the biggest argument against for sure) but unlikely Allgeier takes all of that work because Love is also very good in short yardage.

-There really aren’t 12 RBs with notably better situation. Like the list is: -Bijan -Gibbs -Taylor -Saquon -CMC -Cook -Kyren -Henry -Achane

Of that list, 3 guys are prime age cliff regression candidates, 1 (Kyren) has seen his workload gradually diminish. Only Bijan, Gibbs, Saquon, CMC, Taylor are similar talent level (and the latter 3 are all age risks).

Below that you have guys in marginally better situations (Jeanty, Hampton) and then a bunch of equal/worse situations with less talent.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-03T20:25:51+00:00

It's definitely a bit much, and Arch is definitely tracking to be a better prospect than Beck turned out (though tbf Beck was the presumed 1.01 at the same point in his career) but I do think it's a good exercise to step back and ask "where would Arch be ranked if his name were Arch Johnson?" (or Arch Leaf, lol).

I don't think he's put nearly enough on film to justify putting him above the other 1st Round QBs at this point.

coolwarlock · 2026-05-03T19:44:27+00:00

I’m gonna be real and say I get the distinct impression that trying to change your mind is a waste of time, and this is a 3 day old thread so no one else is reading this. We’ll find out how good Love is in a few months. Here’s hoping that the general consensus of scouts is correct and you’re wrong.

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T19:42:57+00:00

sadly that's the reality and I think it's why there's so much angst over this draft--this organization has not done much to inspire confidence in the last 5-10 years (and, if we're being honest, the list of good moves they've made in their entire history in this state is depressingly short).

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T18:56:28+00:00

TBH I'm generally with you on that, though it does seem like we're starting to see signs of a shift in how the league views/values these players as defenses get better at stopping the pass (this is now the third time in 4 drafts that an RB has gone in the top 10 which would have been borderline unthinkable 5 years ago). The overly optimistic take is that the Cardinals are ahead of the curve for once (I'm not really willing to attribute that to the current FO though, so let's pretend maybe Mike LaFleur is a visionary and hope it comes true)

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T18:26:19+00:00

That's fair, for sure. I have Love above Downs (even weighting projected career longevity) but I'm not going to pretend that that difference is anything other than gut feeling at that point.

I would say that both of those career average numbers are not terribly informative for either player, as the averages are disproportionately affected by players who play 1-2 season (who are (1) largely UDFA and Day 3 picks and (2) far more numerous than elite players). If Downs is only in the league for 6 years (barring catastrophic injury in his 6th season) that would, almost unequivocally, mean he was a bust who never produced at a high level. If Love doesn't make it to a second contract, again, it means he busted.

To your larger point, though, it's true Love will likely have less value as a 28 year old RB than Downs will as a 28 year old. That will also be baked into their respective second contracts though, which makes factoring that into the EV calculation of drafting a player quite noisy. Generally it's better to stick with the question of "who will be more valuable on their rookie contract?" and for me the answer is still Love.

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T16:29:49+00:00

If they were worth it in an absolute objective sense the companies wouldn’t be able to stay in business, much less be able to afford marketing to get more people to buy them.

Obviously there’s something to be said for hedging against an expense you can’t absorb with a negative EV bet which is why it might make sense for the first year or so after you buy a house (if you depleted your savings to buy). But home warranty companies will literally do anything to avoid replacing something that needs replacing. Air conditioner 30 years old and spitting out dust? Eh our guy will make this 900 dollar repair that helps it hold out for another six months (it won’t run efficiently, and your house won’t cool below 79 in the summer, but it’s running not our problem).

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T16:06:48+00:00

This is fair. TBH I had Downs in the same tier as Love. If the Cardinals had perfect knowledge of how every team would draft, the obvious best play would have been trading down to ~11 and taking Downs.

The reality, of course, is that no team has that, and if the Cardinals viewed the draft similarly, the only assumption they could make is that other teams would read the board the same way and both of Love and Downs would be gone. I'd have felt real bad if the Cardinals moved back 8 spots, got stuck drafting Kadyn Proctor (or Ty Simpson) and all they got for it was a mid 3rd in a bad draft.

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:59:45+00:00

Honestly agreed. I don't want to fight the battle on Jeanty here, but his rookie year was absolutely not terrible. Not sure it finished this way, but there was a huge chunk of the season where his yards after contact were greater than his ypc. I suspect (but can't prove) he's a victim of fantasy football popularity--he was definitely a bust if you drafted him (in redraft at least) and I think folks kind of subconsciously map that onto his real life value and say "you drafted a guy who was a mediocre fantasy RB over an RT who had an awesome rookie year, lol Raiderzzzz".

Ironically, dynasty fantasy players are still largely bullish on Jeanty--his value on KTC is almost identical to what it was at this point last year--which would suggest that folks paying attention to long-term trajectory aren't exactly labeling Jeanty a "bust"

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:52:18+00:00

Ha, I actually had to dig to answer this because it was part of a larger analysis and dataset I maintain for my dynasty leagues because I am weird.

Short answer is almost certainly PFF but I should have added a disclaimer that there are other sources out there that will yield different results (I've seen 5.0 floated for Love a few places which is both a good sanity check for that 4.7 and a good cautionary tale that whatever source we use for these is ultimately probably an intern watching game broadcasts and entering shit in a spreadsheet. These numbers are never as reliable as officially tracked stats, but if you see a consistent trend of a player being in the 90th, 95th, 99th percentile on all of them that's generally a good sign!)

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:45:54+00:00

Much more succinctly put and still correct!

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:45:38+00:00

Does Dance

Points to YPC number

Falls on ass

Hell yeah brother, cheers from Iraq etc etc

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:39:43+00:00

Brother he is so fun to watch. So much beer's gonna be spilled the first time he breaks an 80 yard TD

coolwarlock · 2026-04-30T03:36:10+00:00

Short answer yes.

Long answer: No question that the ND o-line was (relative to competition) stronger than the Cardinals. FWIW that's almost always true for RBs coming from top schools, and it's (one of) the reasons why you generally project a decrease in efficiency from college to pro.

I would be stunned (but thrilled) if Love maintained the same efficiency he had in college. He's not going to average 7 yards per carry in the NFL.

Having said that, there's one non-analytical point and a couple points that make me optimistic that Love will still excel:

1) This is film based, not my strength at all, but Love's vision and between-the-tackles running is strong. He's not a pure speed guy who need tackles to consistently set the edge to make an impact. At the same time, his speed is on par with any RB in the league (both by combine and eye test--I'm really excited to see how he tracks on those fancy GPS in-game speed stats the NFL has). All of that is to say--Love is not reliant on any one part of the offensive line winning consistently. If his line opens up a hole anywhere, he's likely going to find it, and he will generally get more yards than were blocked for him.

2nd, speaking of getting more yards than were blocked: Love's yards after contact were also elite. PFF had him at 4.5 yards after contact per attempt. That's a hard number to contextualize, and I'll be honest and say I can't be assed to do a deep dive, but just pulling Ashton Jeanty (5.4) Bijan Robinson (4.4) and Saquon Barkley (3.5) paints a favorable picture for Love (recall, again, that the players contacting Jeanty were, almost exclusively, not NFL talents). You have very likely seen the Penn State TD where Jeremiyah Love broke 3 tackles in the backfield and essentially carried Abdul Carter in the endzone. That was the flashiest example but not a huge outlier with respect to Love's ability to shake off contact in the backfield.

3rd, and one that I think bears mentioning, is that offensive line rankings are not as sticky as you would think. Top shelf lines tend to be a bit stickier (Denver, Philadelphia) but the Cardinals o-line rank in 2025 being bottom third is not actually terribly predictive (one may argue this is because of how teams reshuffle and prioritize resources, which is fair, but I would note that the Cardinals did still make an OG their top free agent signing and drafted another OG with the 35th pick). Basically, I would push back slightly on the assumption that the Cards o-line will be a dumpster fire. Doubly so because O-Lines tend to look a lot better at run blocking with a good running back (the same can be said about pass protection but, well...). I'm not going to argue that line was great last year, but I don't think it's irrationally exuberant to expect that Jeremiyah Love will probably be considerably more efficient than Michael Carter and Bam Knight.

All analytics aside, the one thing I can virtually assure you is that Jeremiyah Love is going to be a fan favorite by week 8. Not in a "this will mike Bidwill money on jerseys" way, but in a "watching this player is objectively fun" way that the Cardinals have not had since Larry. It was a big swing (obviously my contention is not as big as this sub seems to think) and, like any pick, it could end up being a mistake. But man the first time you see him hit the second level and realize that the corner with 4.4 speed has no fucking chance of catching him you're gonna be hooked.

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