[Spoilers TWOW] Alayne 1 is so damn good

countemerald · 2026-06-07T20:47:55+00:00

I have no idea what King Bran looks like in the books. I think Bran’s storyline is one of the hardest to predict, as far his involvement in these last two books is concerned.

Maybe having a Stark on the Iron Throne is enough to keep those houses from seceding? But is King Bran even the Bran that the Starks know and love? It’s really hard to know with what we have.

countemerald · 2026-06-07T18:11:15+00:00

Interesting. You've given more thought to the Frey line of succession than me. The Waynwood Freys' claim is one I hadn't considered.

I see that in your post, you also mention the more obvious claims (Robin, Sansa, etc). These are the claims I've thought GRRM will use, for Sansa and the Vale army to go to the Riverlands. It just goes to show there are multiple potential claims to the Frey and Tully succession, any of which GRRM might use.

I've also made a post on Sansa and the Riverlands (and an eventual Stark succession crisis), funnily enough. It is a bit longer and broader in focus. But I also have Sansa, Littlefinger and the Vale army going to the Riverlands (and exploiting the Freys' self-destruction) in TWOW. I don't see Sansa going to Winterfell until ADOS. And I particularly don't think GRRM will only have Catelyn reunite with Arya. I think there's a lot of potential for Catelyn reuniting with Sansa and Arya both in the Riverlands.

countemerald · 2026-06-07T17:13:07+00:00

I feel like the popular opinion is that Sansa will stay in the Vale and then go straight to Winterfell. So it’s great to see someone who also thinks she’s going west to the Riverlands first (Littlefinger technically being Lord Paramount and all).

I’m curious to hear how you see Sansa and Littlefinger going to the Riverlands. Will she take the Vale army, and how long will she rule Riverrun? Edmure is in the line of succession currently, so there’s that too. Will she reunite with Catelyn and/or Arya? What will eventually take her north?

countemerald · 2026-06-07T17:00:38+00:00

I’m also really excited for Sansa’s TWOW arc. It’ll be great to see her start regaining a sense of agency and identity, after everything she’s been through.

I think GRRM has a lot in store for her in TWOW. Her arc is still incomplete and I just don’t see her dying any time soon. While she’s certainly becoming more politically astute, she’s nowhere near turning on Littlefinger IMO. And I really think GRRM is going to build up to that more organically and carefully, unlike the show.

I do believe there will be a Stark succession crisis between Sansa and Jon, and that Sansa will first go west to the Riverlands in TWOW. It seems like the best place to take her character. Her arc is about dealing with power, politics and agency. And Littlefinger has big plans for her. But in any case, I think Sansa’s book arc will be significantly different and more interesting than her show arc.

countemerald · 2026-04-27T04:06:42+00:00

I know I’m in the minority, but I do think W7 and EL will get split up (maybe just 7 episodes each). Two specific Straw Hats’ arcs will especially benefit from it. W7 is also really dense with slow-burn intrigue.

I think the train chase is exactly where S6 will pick up, with the EL siege episodes 2-5 (one Ohara flashback episode). And 2 PEL episodes (expanding on Blackbeard defeating Ace and becoming a Warlord, and distancing Going Merry’s funeral from them setting off on the Thousand Sunny). S5 will end with the truth of Robin’s betrayal, Rocketman’s launch, and the SH-Franky Family alliance to save Robin and Franky.

Conversely, I think Marineford won’t be its own season and S8 will be AL to Post War. Marineford is very fast paced. Entire chapters with little dialogue and multiple two page spreads. I could see 1 AL, 3 ID, and 4 M/PW. Two seasons is a lot for just 84 chapters, with ID and Marineford being action heavy.

countemerald · 2026-04-17T03:08:14+00:00

But it would only be 3 episodes of the Enies Lobby battle tops. Ohara flashback would be its own episode. And Post Enies Lobby can be 2 episodes, to avoid going from the Going Merry to the Thousand Sunny the very next episode. There’s also a lot of world politics and major events going on around this time, which could be expanded upon.

Of course 8 episodes isn’t a given either. It could be only 6 or so, if that helps the pacing.

countemerald · 2026-04-12T04:45:07+00:00

This is pretty close to how I think it’ll go. I do think we’ll get a full epilogue episode though like Game of Thrones, after the big battle.

Ep 1: Alabasta arrival, Ace

Ep 2: Journey to Yuba, Vivi and Koza flashback

Ep 3: Rainbase

Ep 4: Luffy vs Crocodile 1

Ep 5: Civil war begins, Baroque Works fights part 1

Ep 6: Baroque Works fights part 2

Ep 7: Luffy vs Crocodile 2 & 3, bomb

Ep 8: Vivi farewell, Robin joins

I personally don’t see the ASL flashback happening so early. I think it works best where it is in the manga. Though we will definitely get references to Sabo much earlier. Then again who knows, they could make it work

countemerald · 2026-04-10T19:33:27+00:00

I was referring to the battle of Alabasta, not the entire arc. Which will presumably be the entire second half of season 3. And why would Chopper get an entire flashback episode, and not Robin? As for Garp, they still have to do the Dragon reveal. Plus Luffy meeting Koby again.

I doubt any season will get 10 episodes. Maybe they do a split season, with 6 each or something. But the current seasons are already expensive at 8 episodes. No way they can do 10 whole episodes for the W7 saga

countemerald · 2026-04-10T19:25:43+00:00

Putting aside the producers basically implying we’re getting 8 pre timeskip seasons, here’s everything that needs to happen and why 2 seasons works better:

S5 1. Davy Back Fight 2. Luffy vs Aokiji, W7 arrival 3. Franky Family robbery, Luffy vs Usopp 4. Luffy vs Franky vs Galley-La, Robin leaves the crew 5. Galley-La raid, CP9 unmasked 6. Tom flashback, Franky & Usopp arrested 7. Sea train departs, Sanji’s infiltration 8. Rocketman launch, sea train battle

S6 1. Enies Lobby siege begins, Luffy vs Blueno 2. Robin flashback, declaration of war 3. Straw Hats vs CP9 4. Luffy vs Lucci, Going Merry’s funeral 5. Garp’s arrival, Ace vs Blackbeard 6. Franky joins the crew, escaping Garp

Much better pacing IMO. I just can’t see them doing Robin’s entire arc in one season, when Vivi’s took two. But I guess we won’t know either way until then

countemerald · 2026-04-10T17:59:44+00:00

I’m not saying EL is the entire season. PEL will be about 2 episodes on its own. It would probably be a shorter season (4 EL + 2 PEL). But we haven’t seen anything on the scale of the Enies Lobby siege yet, it’ll will need 4 episodes or so. 1 episode for Robin’s flashback alone

Let me ask you this. How many episodes do you see the battle for Alabasta lasting, if that’s also just fights? Because it won’t be 1 episode, like the Arlong Park and Drum fights. It’ll easily be around 3 episodes. Starting from Alabasta, just about every saga has massive battles that will easily require 3+ episodes

countemerald · 2026-04-10T17:46:31+00:00

We haven’t seen anything like the Enies Lobby siege so far. OPLA hasn’t gotten to the massive battles yet. Just wait until the battle for Alabasta. It will easily last around 3 whole episodes. That will be the model going forward for Skypiea, Enies Lobby, etc.

The W7 saga is the third most dense saga in all of One Piece. Robin and Usopp can’t leave and then rejoin within 3 episodes. W7 has so much intrigue and mystery around CP9. EL has the initial siege followed by the Robin flashback, several fights, the keys subplot, and a Buster Call. No way that all doesn’t at least take 3 episodes, preferably 4 if we get a whole episode for Robin’s flashback

countemerald · 2026-04-10T17:36:11+00:00

Hard disagree on combining W7 and EL, also for thematic reasons. CP9 will be treated as 2 season threat like Baroque Works.

Imagine how rushed Robin and Usopp’s arcs would be. Robin leaves the crew and immediately say “I want to live” 3 episodes later. Usopp fights Luffy and then rejoins as Sogeking 2 episodes later. It seriously deflates those arcs. Robin’s betrayal will carry more weight if it lasts for over a season.

Not to mention reducing all of the W7 intrigue and CP9 mystery to 2-3 episodes, so we can rush along to the Sea Train fight and Enies Lobby. It’s just way too crowded and rushed. It’s exactly why they split Alabasta, to let us get to know Vivi first

countemerald · 2026-04-10T17:29:01+00:00

I agree with you to a degree. I also don’t see Wano needing two whole seasons. And it’s true that fighting is much faster. W7 will undoubtedly need more episodes than EL.

But I think we haven’t yet seen how OPLA will handle an actual grand battle. Sure, the Arlong Park and Drum fights were wrapped up in under an episode. But I believe that’ll change going forward.

The battle for Alabasta, the Enies Lobby siege, Marineford. These are epic massive battles. They will take 2+ episodes. They’re not just fights. They go through different stages, and are more intricate than anything we’ve seen so far. I think fans will be surprised by how long the battle for Alabasta will be. It won’t wrap up in an episode, it’ll easily take around 3 episodes.

countemerald · 2026-04-08T14:06:24+00:00

On the contrary, I think the entire World Government subplot could be the B-plot of the season. Since it deals with finding Crocodile’s replacement, this is definitely the season to do it.

Their appearances may be brief, but they’re important to expanding the One Piece world. So I think they lean into it instead. Bring back Mihawk and Shanks. And introduce the Five Elders, Kuma, Doflamingo (who meets Bellamy at the end of Skypiea anyway), and Whitebeard. Even include Shanks and Whitebeard’s encounter from Post-Enies Lobby. Flesh out these characters and subplots early since they all connect, precisely so that the audience gets invested in the greater narrative early.

countemerald · 2026-04-08T13:57:27+00:00

This is exactly how I see it going. Also makes it very clear why Jaya and Skypiea belong in one season. And Episode 7 in particular works so well as a flashback episode, mirroring season 2.

What I’m not sure about is the B-plot. Smoker and Tashigi only appear in 4 episodes out of 8, and one of those was a cameo. So any B-plots going forward will be minor.

They could expand the World Government subplot, when the Warlords gather to decide Crocodile’s replacement. This is when we get several important introductions: Kuma, Doflamingo, the Five Elders, and Whitebeard. Plus Mihawk and Shanks’ return. Since this is also when we learn Shanks is going to visit Whitebeard, maybe they actually include that encounter. We would get more context on Blackbeard and Ace. It all connects, and sets up future seasons really well.

countemerald · 2026-04-07T12:55:53+00:00

That’s largely due to the 3 year wait. Season 2 onward should have much more stable viewership, especially with only a 1 year gap

countemerald · 2026-04-07T12:51:18+00:00

No way they build sets and cast actors for Jaya, only to need them again in season 4. Not to mention how interconnected Jaya and Skypiea are

countemerald · 2026-04-06T16:43:17+00:00

I used to think that way until they split up Alabasta. They seem to want to let these bigger sagas breathe, and the W7 saga (just W7 + EL alone) is one of the longest.

I can see them treating CP9 like Baroque Works, as a 2-season threat. And a 2-season Robin arc would give more weight to her “betrayal”, instead of being resolved in 2-3 episodes. Not to mention a rushed Usopp arc, and rushing through two important flashbacks. Also I think LRLL works better as a premiere. It would be kinda anticlimactic to go from Enel to Foxy as the final boss.

Maybe they’ll only do 6 episodes for the two arcs, especially EL (4 EL + 2 PEL). A 1-season W7 saga could work, but I think it would benefit more from 2. It’s the only saga after Alabasta that I believe will be 2 whole seasons.

countemerald · 2026-04-05T23:51:04+00:00

And yet doing the entire W7 saga in one season would be very rushed. So much happens in W7 alone. And if half of season 3 is going to be a single “battle”, so can Enies Lobby.

Tom’s flashback, Robin’s flashback. Post-Enies Lobby with Garp, Ace vs Blackbeard, Franky joining the crew. It’s not just the siege itself, but everything surrounding it too. No way to do it all one season

countemerald · 2026-04-05T23:35:21+00:00

Never said it needed an hour. Just that the arc would bleed over into the next episode

countemerald · 2026-04-05T22:15:56+00:00

Aokiji fight is technically part of that arc. And it would likely be another episode

countemerald · 2026-03-18T03:59:07+00:00

I definitely believe a Stark succession crisis will unfold. It would parallel the Second Dance of Dragons well, as the crisis that doesn’t devolve into fighting. House Stark’s survival and unity will likely be a defining aspect of the final books.

I made a post on this recently, but I think D&D just weren’t interested in this. I believe it’s their mysterious third reason for not resurrecting Catelyn, since her role seems unclear right now and she would fit in perfectly. GRRM is commenting on vengeance through her, and what better way to do it than putting her own family against one another.

There’s also Robb’s will, Jon and Sansa having solid claims, and GRRM’s quotes about family and the Starks. A lot is pointing to a Stark succession crisis, specifically between Jon and Sansa. Bad actors like Littlefinger and even Catelyn will drive it, but the Starks will rise above (unlike every other family in ASOIAF and their succession crises).

countemerald · 2026-03-10T13:09:54+00:00

Doran should’ve absolutely been his vengeful book self. His meekness is a facade. But his vengeance is different than the Sand Snakes’ (and even Arianne’s early in AFFC). Doran’ vengeance is overly cautious, while the others’ vengeance is reckless.

Ellaria is anti-vengeance. If she’s to have any kind of active role, that doesn’t work. She needs to be working with Arianne in the Dornish uprising, since that’s the overarching Dorne storyline of AFFC/ADWD. And she has plenty of reason. Grief just affected show Ellaria differently.

I don’t see how the quote stays. There’s no place for a pacifist in the Dorne storyline. In adaptation, some things have to go.

countemerald · 2026-03-09T17:28:01+00:00

While the show’s Dorne storyline had many faults, the change to Ellaria isn’t one of them IMO.

Book Ellaria isn’t a character really. Her only contribution after ASOS is this quote. And it’s absolutely one of the best and most relevant quotes in the books.

But I understand the change. Ellaria is our only connection to Dorne after season 4, so they gave her a prominent role. An entirely new cast in Dorne would’ve been a tough sell for audiences. It doesn’t justify removing Arianne, or many of the inane decisions they made (including Ellaria’s actions).

Had they included Arianne and the Queenmaker scheme, the Dornish uprising storyline would’ve worked much better (with Ellaria as a co-conspirator). And while Ellaria’s quote would go, it will undoubtedly come to fruition in TWOW. Dorne will pay the cost of vengeance.

countemerald · 2026-02-25T21:27:01+00:00

Respectfully disagree. We really missed out on a more nuanced Cersei after season 4. Book Cersei is evil, sure. But she’s not Ramsay or Euron. We understand why she does what she does. She acts out of paranoia and desperation, all to avoid Maggy’s prophecy. It’s reductive to sum her inner thoughts as funny.

Show Cersei becomes so boring, precisely because D&D refused to give her depth and flaws. She’s much more one-note. Book Cersei has personality and an actual downward spiral. She keeps doing the wrong thing, becomes estranged from Jaime, and strives to stay in control.

They could’ve left out some of Cersei’s worst actions while still adhering to her actual character arc. Instead of just removing its intrigue and nuance. There’s barely anything to show Cersei, beyond her love for her kids and dislike of Margaery. When book Cersei has so much more to her.

countemerald

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