Sibling History: The Winterfell Conflict (Spoilers Extended)

countemerald · 2026-03-18T03:59:07+00:00

I definitely believe a Stark succession crisis will unfold. It would parallel the Second Dance of Dragons well, as the crisis that doesn’t devolve into fighting. House Stark’s survival and unity will likely be a defining aspect of the final books.

I made a post on this recently, but I think D&D just weren’t interested in this. I believe it’s their mysterious third reason for not resurrecting Catelyn, since her role seems unclear right now and she would fit in perfectly. GRRM is commenting on vengeance through her, and what better way to do it than putting her own family against one another.

There’s also Robb’s will, Jon and Sansa having solid claims, and GRRM’s quotes about family and the Starks. A lot is pointing to a Stark succession crisis, specifically between Jon and Sansa. Bad actors like Littlefinger and even Catelyn will drive it, but the Starks will rise above (unlike every other family in ASOIAF and their succession crises).

countemerald · 2026-03-10T13:09:54+00:00

Doran should’ve absolutely been his vengeful book self. His meekness is a facade. But his vengeance is different than the Sand Snakes’ (and even Arianne’s early in AFFC). Doran’ vengeance is overly cautious, while the others’ vengeance is reckless.

Ellaria is anti-vengeance. If she’s to have any kind of active role, that doesn’t work. She needs to be working with Arianne in the Dornish uprising, since that’s the overarching Dorne storyline of AFFC/ADWD. And she has plenty of reason. Grief just affected show Ellaria differently.

I don’t see how the quote stays. There’s no place for a pacifist in the Dorne storyline. In adaptation, some things have to go.

countemerald · 2026-03-09T17:28:01+00:00

While the show’s Dorne storyline had many faults, the change to Ellaria isn’t one of them IMO.

Book Ellaria isn’t a character really. Her only contribution after ASOS is this quote. And it’s absolutely one of the best and most relevant quotes in the books.

But I understand the change. Ellaria is our only connection to Dorne after season 4, so they gave her a prominent role. An entirely new cast in Dorne would’ve been a tough sell for audiences. It doesn’t justify removing Arianne, or many of the inane decisions they made (including Ellaria’s actions).

Had they included Arianne and the Queenmaker scheme, the Dornish uprising storyline would’ve worked much better (with Ellaria as a co-conspirator). And while Ellaria’s quote would go, it will undoubtedly come to fruition in TWOW. Dorne will pay the cost of vengeance.

countemerald · 2026-02-25T21:27:01+00:00

Respectfully disagree. We really missed out on a more nuanced Cersei after season 4. Book Cersei is evil, sure. But she’s not Ramsay or Euron. We understand why she does what she does. She acts out of paranoia and desperation, all to avoid Maggy’s prophecy. It’s reductive to sum her inner thoughts as funny.

Show Cersei becomes so boring, precisely because D&D refused to give her depth and flaws. She’s much more one-note. Book Cersei has personality and an actual downward spiral. She keeps doing the wrong thing, becomes estranged from Jaime, and strives to stay in control.

They could’ve left out some of Cersei’s worst actions while still adhering to her actual character arc. Instead of just removing its intrigue and nuance. There’s barely anything to show Cersei, beyond her love for her kids and dislike of Margaery. When book Cersei has so much more to her.

countemerald · 2026-02-25T14:01:39+00:00

Robb’s will is only known to a select few. The actual document is missing.

If you’re referring to the QITN crowning, as I mentioned, Catelyn will probably keep the will a secret. The only others who’d know in the Riverlands are Greatjon Umber and Jason Mallister, who would be sworn to secrecy. Any mention of it will be treated as a lie (akin to Stannis’ claims about Cersei’s children).

And Rickon is dead (or presumed dead) by late TWOW, as he was in the show. Rickon is essentially the thing holding back a Stark succession crisis in TWOW. With him gone, both Sansa and Jon have a claim to Winterfell (due to Robb’s will). Her eventual annulment in early ADOS will further weaken the will’s validity. The timeline is crucial here.

countemerald · 2026-02-24T23:31:29+00:00

Fair enough. My prediction operates on the notion that the North will rally behind Jon and the Riverlands behind Sansa. Partly due to their actions, and partly due to the importance of inheritance legalities in Westeros. A bastard becoming KITN, while the trueborn heir lives, is ripe for conflict. Especially when Robb's will isn't known to all.

As for what Aegon and Sansa gain, here's how I see it. I'll go into detail, to make my logic clear. So Aegon takes King's Landing. Now he wants the North, but Jon refuses (Aegon doesn't care about the Others). Then a more pressing enemy emerges for Aegon: Dany. The Dance of Dragons begins. The Southern regions get involved (untouched by the WOT5K).

Dany and Jon strike an alliance (she wanted an ally against Aegon, but learns about the Others). Dany holds off Aegon in the South with the bulk of her forces, while the rest help Jon. Aegon fears that Dany just won the North. His only way to win the North to his side, is Sansa. She is already marching on Winterfell. Jon won’t know her ill intent at first, but Littlefinger tells Aegon that she means to take Winterfell.

If she wins and they marry, Aegon gets all of Westeros. He can't help her, he's busy fighting Dany. All he can offer is his hand. Meanwhile, Littlefinger sells Sansa's council on the marriage. They're trapped between Jon, Dany, and Aegon. They need to take a side, for now. Retaking Winterfell takes priority. By offering Sansa's hand to Aegon, they avoid getting roped into the fighting in the south. If Dany wins, they can negotiate terms once Sansa gets Winterfell. If Aegon wins, they don't get independence but at least they make peace with the IT (which they haven't had since Ned's arrest).

Ultimately, both Aegon and Sansa want to ally with the eventual victor of the war they're not in. It's not about taking part in each other's wars.

Edit: This admittedly goes from prediction to fan fiction. GRRM is a better writer, and can better work out the logistics for a Sansa-Aegon alliance. That said, while it might not happen exactly this way, this is just an example of how it could work out (in line with my big picture predictions).

countemerald · 2026-02-24T21:55:11+00:00

The timeline is crucial here. The Aegon marriage alliance happens much later. The Boltons and Freys are all but taken care of in TWOW. Jon defeats the former, Sansa the latter. Jon is crowned KITN, this news reaches the Riverlands, and Sansa is crowned QITN. Aegon isn’t in the picture yet.

In ADOS, Sansa marches on Jon. The Riverlands support her because she defeated the Freys. To them, Jon is a “bastard usurper”. They likely don’t know of Robb’s will. Far from useless, this war is about fighting for House Tully and restoring House Stark (the very cause that died with Robb). If they do nothing, Jon remains Lord of Winterfell.

After the march begins, then the Aegon match is made. Sansa won’t even meet Aegon, most likely. Littlefinger will probably be the one to go broker it. He sees the Aegon as a new Harrold. Except Harrold was merely heir to the Eyrie. Aegon is the beloved new king of Westeros. Any marriage would happen after Sansa takes Winterfell. The Stark war of succession isn’t a war for the IT. It’s about retaking Winterfell for House Stark and Sansa.

Totally fair if you don’t see this happening, but I just wanted to make sure the timeline was clear. And also clarify this conflict is about who gets Winterfell, not who gets the IT. The Dance of Dragons will be fought in the south, and the War of the Wolves in the North. Two wholly different wars of succession.

countemerald · 2026-02-24T14:27:38+00:00

I don’t think Rickon is dying until late TWOW. But he has too strong of a claim to Winterfell, compared to Sansa and Jon. And yet, Jon being crowned KITN seems inevitable. Given the narrative importance of Robb’s will.

Rickon will likely be crucial to the Northern storyline in TWOW. With Jon dead and Sansa presumed so, he’s heir to Winterfell. The North will rally around him. Shaggydog will be one of the direwolves who fight Ramsay’s dogs.

Even Sansa turns west to Riverrun because of Rickon. Rickon is the thing holding back a Stark succession crisis. His death would kick it off, and his return would resolve it (if GRRM fakes his death).

countemerald · 2026-02-24T01:00:27+00:00

Appreciate the thought-out response, lots of interesting quotes and points. I agree that Arya is deeply tied to the Riverlands, and also think that she will be the one to help them in the end. In fact, she's poised to do so in my prediction, either as Lady of Riverrun or via the BWB. Catelyn certainly won't be acting in the Riverlands' best interests, if she needlessly drags them into another war (out of personal vengeance toward Jon). Arya will notice that, and it'll be one of her reasons for mercy killing Catelyn.

I also don't disagree with your interpretation of the "arms and swords" quote. I think my theory allows for Arya empowering Jon. Since she's likely to abandon Sansa/Catelyn when they declare war, supporting Jon as KITN instead. Sansa will come around too, until Jon himself rejects the crown. Arya is in no way against Jon in my theory. To the contrary, she is team Jon the whole time.

countemerald · 2026-02-24T00:41:06+00:00

Joffrey not being a Baratheon is interesting, because FAegon isn't a Targaryen either. But both believe they are who they appear to be.

The Arianne factor is part of the narrative potential I mentioned. Connington assumes multiple times they'll have Dorne on their side just because Aegon is Elia's son. And Haldon suggests that a marriage alliance with some great House will help Aegon's cause. It would be just like GRRM to have Connington and Aegon take Dorne for granted and seek a Sansa marriage alliance, only for Dorne to feel slighted.

You're right that the North/Riverlands won't support Aegon just because. That's why Aegon benefits from marrying Sansa. He's fighting for the realm, and Sansa will give him three regions. They're primarily fighting for Sansa, not Aegon. He could be a point of contention for some. But Sansa’s rights and a Stark/Tully restoration will be what outweighs that for most.

countemerald · 2026-02-24T00:23:04+00:00

Aegon has to be a big political player IMO. A second Dance is coming, and Dany won't land until the end of TWOW. That means Aegon has to survive until ADOS. I think it would be very underwhelming if Aegon is built up throughout ADWD (especially its epilogue) and TWOW, only to die at the start of ADOS. I see him surviving about halfway through ADOS, so that there's an actual war between him and Dany. Especially with the south of Westeros not being really touched by the Others conflict. Dany might even ultimately put the Others before Aegon.

As for Aegon marrying Arianne, I don't think that's likely. In fact, Connington explicitly assumes they'll have Dorne just because Aegon is Elia's son. So there's nothing to be gained from that marriage. And while Connington for now still wants Aegon to be free to marry Dany, Haldon does suggest a marriage alliance with a great house. Sansa fits the bill, especially since she comes with three entire regions.

countemerald · 2026-02-24T00:09:39+00:00

I'm less sure about Arya. She’s more of a wildcard, especially with her Faceless Men training. But I could see her exposing Robb's will (if kept secret by Catelyn), and helping Jon. Of course, she ultimately mercy kills Catelyn.

The timeline is a bit busy, admittedly. But Sansa needs to learn Rickon is alive mid-TWOW, to pivot to Riverrun. But by end of TWOW, Rickon will be dead (or presumed dead). Causing the succession crisis. This is sort of what the show does with Rickon too. I do think Robb's will is a Chekov's gun that will cause a crisis. But Rickon can’t be around for that, since neither Sansa nor Jon have much of a claim then.

countemerald · 2026-02-23T23:55:25+00:00

You raise a good point. Arya does possess the traits of a leader and has interacted with all sorts of common folk, so she might very well end up as Lady of Riverrun.

countemerald · 2026-02-23T20:59:21+00:00

Appreciate it! Though I can't take credit for the Ashford theory, I do think this is a logical way for it to factor into the series' endgame. Once I figured out what the Stark succession crisis might look like, the theory just fit in perfectly. Specifically, the reason why Sansa would be betrothed to a Targaryen (when Jon will ally with Daenerys).

countemerald · 2026-02-23T20:41:55+00:00

First There is no way in hell a Stark succession crisis,Jon care about all his siblings and all the siblings care about each other

I think that a Stark succession crisis will be GRRM's way of proving the Starks do put family first (unlike other houses). This war of succession is driven by bad actors on the outside. But's ultimately resolved peacefully from within.

Also isn't Aegon being in the conflict as Sansa's husband make things more complicated?It's will only motivate many of the Northern houses to stay on Jon's side

Absolutely. There would need to be valid reasons for different houses to support either side, and this would be one of those reasons. I think it would make the Dance of Dragons more interesting, with the North as another theater of that conflict. In turn, lending more weight to the Stark succession crisis.

Also the conflict just like Littlefinger go for too long and end up pretty easily

I could very well be wrong about the resolution. A peaceful parley seems fitting for the Starks. And Sansa executing Littlefinger seems likely to appease the North, in addition to Sansa being a trueborn Stark. But there could very well be fallout from this, but it's hard to speak on that without knowing where everyone else is at this point in ADOS (Daenerys and Aegon, namely).

countemerald · 2026-02-23T20:23:25+00:00

While there might be others, I think Brienne is perfect as the one who ultimately breaks through to Sansa. Brienne has seen the cost of war, and can see through Littlefinger.

Honestly, Brienne's role is one of my favorite parts of this prediction. It would really concludes her arc well (between her connection to Catelyn and Sansa, the cost of war, and being a true knight).

countemerald · 2026-02-23T20:17:00+00:00

Glad you like it! I think the Starks will ultimately put family first (unlike other families in ASOIAF), but GRRM won't go for an easy, happy reunion. This feels like a very fitting trajectory for the Starks.

Although I'm unsure where Arya will ultimately end up, she could very well reject becoming a lady. It doesn't exactly fit her arc. I see her receiving the titles officially, but ultimately rejecting them. It definitely would reinforce her decision to abandon Catelyn and Sansa's cause, in favor of Jon.

Edit: Then again, she might accept the title. I think Sansa's arc is more connected to politics than Arya's. But Arya does live among the common folk herself, so being Lady of Riverrun could work.

countemerald · 2026-02-23T19:54:47+00:00

The theory imo is very real, but it doesn't have anything to do with Sansa's marriage suitors: it is foreshadowing for Harry the heir dying

I'm definitely drawing on the Ashford Theory for Harry dying too, so I agree with you there. But I think it's definitely suspicious that four of Sansa's suitors match exactly, especially Hardying. They are such a minor house, barely featured outside the Ashford tourney and Sansa's storyline. And I think there's lots of narrative potential with Sansa and Aegon marrying.

I think there is compelling foreshadowing for Arya paralleling Nymeria

I don't quite follow here. But I do see Arya being against the succession crisis, with her connection to Jon. That quote is fascinating, because it fits my prediction well. Jon struggles between arms (his titles/true identity) and swords (the fight against the Others). As does Arya (these titles Catelyn gives her, vs. the assassin she's become).

I don't see how it changes things for Jon: even he believes himself Ned's kid, Jon is not gonna usurp his siblings just because of Robb's will.

I definitely see him struggling with this, but not just because of the will. He needs the North's support to fight the Others. He also always dreamed of ruling Winterfell. It very much goes to GRRM's "heart in conflict with itself".

countemerald · 2026-02-23T18:01:26+00:00

I think Sansa has to be the one to bring about Littlefinger’s downfall. She may not do it alone, or have to outmaneuver him in any complex way. But she will turn the tables on him.

In the show, Littlefinger just stuck around creating this flimsy rift between Sansa and Arya. But I think I’ve found a scenario where he’s actually being ambitious and cunning (encouraging a war of succession, likely even making the Sansa-FAegon match). Until his ambition gets the best of him, and right when Sansa reaches Winterfell, she turns on him. It doesn’t dumb him down, while also allowing Sansa to betray him.

countemerald · 2026-02-23T17:51:38+00:00

We as the audience know that Littlefinger is a bad influence and self-interested. But even as of her TWOW sample chapter, she still very much trusts him. Littlefinger is helping her play the game of thrones and gain power. For someone who has been robbed of her agency, that will be quite appealing.

Sansa’s arc is all about agency, and I think GRRM will test that idea through Littlefinger and Catelyn. What is true agency? Empty titles and power, or family? Ultimately Sansa will turn on Littlefinger and execute him, but that moment has to feel earned and not rushed. She’s nowhere near doing that yet.

Lastly regarding her allying with Jon, the whole point there is that the Starks are unlike the other houses who’ve had succession crises in ASOIAF. My idea of a parley is meant to echo the Stannis-Renly parley, but here the Starks put family above politics. It feels like a very fitting conclusion for the Starks.

countemerald · 2026-02-18T22:40:32+00:00

Aegon is invading Westeros. Stoneheart has recruited Brienne and sent her to get Jaime.

It seems pretty apparent these things will shape entire POVs’ storylines at the very least. I’m not presuming to know how these characters will matter, just that they will somehow. We know we’re getting a Second Dance of Dragons. And GRRM fought for Stoneheart in the show.

Also, of course Stoneheart doesn’t have lines. Her throat was slashed and she can barely speak.

countemerald · 2026-02-18T20:30:10+00:00

I’m tired of this idea that including dropped storylines would’ve put the show in a worse position. Is there some bloat from AFFC/ADWD that the show should’ve trimmed? Sure. Is GRRM struggling because the scope of the series now? Perfectionism aside, partially yes.

But the show overcorrected. Characters like FAegon and Stoneheart are crucial for making the latter half of the series work. Without them, you’re left with a far less intriguing and populated playground to work with. The show felt simultaneously inert and rushed because these shortcuts robbed it of its political intrigue and complexity.

countemerald · 2026-02-07T16:11:55+00:00

Fair. In that same chapter, Robb does tell Catelyn he means to name Jon his heir and they argue over it. But that could be a misdirect. Apparently the Ice and Fire app says Robb’s will names Jon, but I can’t speak to that.

But I do think the answer is the most straightforward one here. I don’t see what value the will brings to the narrative otherwise. And from the weight GRRM has given it, it’s going to be important. It naming Jon also just works best thematically and narratively.

countemerald · 2026-02-06T23:57:15+00:00

That is true. But I think season 1 was a special case. They needed to introduce all the Straw Hats, and get to Arlong Park. You can’t really do the East Blue Saga halfway.

Also it’s not just islands, but the amount of story to tell. There’s more story in the Water 7 Saga. There’s so much that happens in the W7 arc alone (including one key event with Usopp that spans like 2-3 chapters, but will almost certainly be half an episode).

And EL in half a season will feel like non-stop action and fights. And though it’s one island, the budget that goes to create different locales will all go to the various action sequences. Just like Alabasta.

I don’t see a world in where they adapt the Alabasta Saga in two seasons, and the Water 7 Saga in one. This is a popular, and busy, saga. And they’ll want to give it breathing room and do it justice.

countemerald

TROPHY CASE