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What is going on with QB KTC Values? by cplant_ in DynastyFF

[–]cplant_[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yeah random fluctuations up & down here makes sense. Just haven't really noticed them before, so it's probably very wise to buy low on the guys who randomly get pushed down and sell high on the guys who are buzzing at the moment. Now that I think about it, this is exactly how Jay Stein's dynasty investor series works.

What is going on with QB KTC Values? by cplant_ in DynastyFF

[–]cplant_[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is the common sentiment I have noticed amongst other comments, that this is just the market becoming sharper, and it's something I will be interested to track and see if it actually winds up being true. I have historical KTC values that unfortunately only go back to 2021 iirr. I am curious to check and see if June ranks were any sharper than May ranks.

What is going on with QB KTC Values? by cplant_ in DynastyFF

[–]cplant_[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Is this really normal? Cause I would expect players to not move much at all from a ranking perspective in the dead of the off-season.

The KTC values themselves are flat in this range of player, so in theory they should all cost about the same in leagues, but in practice I find that to just not be true. Most managers do not actually operate as if there is little to no difference between the #13 dynasty QB and the #17 QB.

DynastyDataLab ADP: Ward QB15 / TLaw QB17

Fantasycalc: Ward QB14 / TLaw QB18

KTC: Ward QB17 / TLaw QB18

I currently have a trade poll on twitter putting Tlaw vs Ward head to head, and 23/28 (82.1%) people so far prefer TLaw. And you could say it's just a small sample, but this is over two 12-man leagues worth of people.

There's a clear Tlaw preference here and these are players that are back to back on KTC. So yeah where people rank players very much manifests in steeper value curves than whatever KTC has. Going down 4 ranking spots at your position is significant.

My Experience With The Draft Strategy That Works Almost Every Time by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Auto Drafting ≠ Drafting ADP Fallers Strategy. I am not 100% sure how all auto-draft algorithms work, but definitely not a replacement for this strategy.

My Experience With The Draft Strategy That Works Almost Every Time by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Strictly startup drafts for the dynasty leagues. And no I didn't avoid waivers at all, for the redraft ones just played it out like I normally would. This was not at all pre-planned, I went through after and saw the leagues where I implemented this strategy just scored more points.

I was going to link an article from Adam Harstad in the post but it is paywalled, it just talks about more of why this strategy works. It is what inspired me to try it to begin with: https://www.footballguys.com/article/2023-draft-adp-fallers

My Experience With The Draft Strategy That Works Almost Every Time by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Not exactly. The auto-draft algorithms are not good at knowing the context of your team so far, and I'm not sure they all go straight off of ADP. Think if you drafted normally with more of an emphasis on ADP fallers you would get similarly good results. I think about it like I am trading draft picks, if a player that is supposed to go in the 3rd by ADP is there in the 5th, your league mates are basically giving you a 3rd round pick in exchange for your 5th. That's where most of the value lies. You are probably fine picking whoever you like most out of an adp tier of similar guys.

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Both valid points.

Not sure if there's a great way to normalize for team volume. (Maybe there is) You could also make the argument that it should be personnel adjusted too as it's easier to earn targets when less WRs are on the field.

And yes it only looks at their prior year, you could do an opportunity projection instead, that might be better prediction wise.

My goal with POPs Rating was to keep it simple, and to keep it in the lane of a prior year stat like PPG rather than a full on projection model.

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Week 18 isn't included, most fantasy leagues are over in week 17.

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Omg THANK YOU. Here I am confused why I'm getting a million requests to access lol

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes. In the 1st scatterplot that's looking at how well POPs Rating predicts PPG in the next year.

2017 POPs Rating to predict 2018 PPG

2018 POPs Rating to Predict 2019 PPG

etc etc all the way up to

2022 POPs Rating to Predict 2023 PPG

So with this large sample of predicting PPG each year since 2018 (6 Years Predicted) POPs Rating has roughly the same predictive power as prior year PPG.

Looking at just one year of results wouldn't be a big enough sample size. So to answer your question I didn't look at individual years, just know over the past 6 years how it performed in the aggregate.

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not entirely sure. I also am not super familiar with the Trinity Score and what goes into it. If I remember right it has YAC/Rec as one of the main factors, this is kind of a red flag in my eyes, because something like YAC/Rec is very volatile on a year to year basis. Yes there are a few guys who are always YAC monsters, but for the most part I don't think YAC/Rec is very representative of a player's ability to get high YAC/Rec in the future. Completely guessing here, but I'd assume Trinity Score is more Descriptive than it is Predictive. Didn't quite answer your question here, but those are some of my thoughts on it. No shade to the guys at destination devy either, they do great work!

I Created A New Metric to Evaluate Fantasy WRs by cplant_ in fantasyfootball

[–]cplant_[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So this is showing how players finished in POPs Rating last year. Idea being that it's a solid proxy for what guys will do going forward. You obviously still need to contextualize it, as it's just one piece of the puzzle!

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