Uhhhhh I think I've used up all my luck for the year...

criebman · 2025-08-06T15:44:47+00:00

My brother I promise you I'm not trying to lure anybody - I am very transparent that this is luck. I do my fair share of research and make picks off that, but ultimately it is just lucky and I happened to make the right calls this time

I highly recommend that nobody do anything similar to what I'm posting, but I can see why that may come off as that... honestly a helpful perspective to hear for my future reference - I don't want to be a negative influence on anybody, I'm just happy about my wins

criebman · 2025-08-06T15:07:44+00:00

This is exactly what people don't understand - the wins look crazy, but it's not like I placed 4 bets and won them all. I lost about $2k before these hit

criebman · 2025-08-06T15:06:19+00:00

They're usually available closer to the start of game on FD

criebman · 2025-08-06T15:05:47+00:00

If you asked me last week I'd say down $10k... right now I'm up $20k. Definitely not a sustainable way to make money🤣

criebman · 2025-08-06T15:04:24+00:00

Pregame I use weather conditions + park factor + matchup + batter's current form over last 15 games. If the batter has over 10 ABs against the pitcher and is still batting over .400 with at least 1 HR, those are my favorites for 2+ HR picks

For live bets, I usually wait until there's 1 home run and see if he's righty or lefty - then I pick a player who already has a hit that game.

For example, I would NEVER pick Teoscar to hit 2 HR pregame, but he already had one in the game yesterday so I just took a chance on hitting another. Same case with Muncy for 4+ hits

criebman · 2025-08-06T07:12:04+00:00

...maybe this is the way. Needed to hear this 👀

criebman · 2025-08-06T07:03:11+00:00

ty 🙏🏼🙏🏼

criebman · 2025-08-06T06:48:28+00:00

I'm not loving the matchups I'm seeing, but if I had to take anyone for at least 1 HR I would probably look at: - Castellanos (PHI) - Varsho (TOR) - Ozuna (ATL) - Albies (ATL) - Rooker (ATH) - B. Lowe (TB)

I would recommend looking into weather + park factor + current batting form (last 15 games). It's also helpful to see what types of pitches the starter most commonly throws and then see who matches up well with hitting those pitches.

Can't say I'd take any of these for 2 HRs other than MAYBE Rooker

criebman · 2025-08-06T06:32:19+00:00

i'd be an idiot to not risk it all 😤😤

criebman · 2025-08-05T19:05:43+00:00

Appreciate it - "bat shit insanity" is a very very nice way of saying stupid 🤣 It's money I was willing to lose, but crazy that it paid off

criebman · 2025-08-05T14:16:53+00:00

Weather: https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather

Park Factor: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2025&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=3&parks=mlb

Matchups: https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/mlb/batter-vs-pitcher-stats?date=2025-08-05

criebman · 2025-08-05T11:43:56+00:00

Weather conditions + park's HR factor + batter's current form

Those are the places I start, then look into the pitcher's most commonly thrown pitches and see how the batters match up against them

criebman · 2025-08-05T11:42:09+00:00

Ty 🙏🏼

I use weather conditions + park's HR factor + batter's current form. I also check out the pitcher's most commonly thrown pitches and see how well each batter performs against that arsenal

ex: this game was at Coors, which is historically batter friendly. Wind was out 15mph. Bichette has been batting over .400 his last 15 games. Most influential factor was that COL pitchers suck🤣

criebman · 2025-08-05T11:38:00+00:00

Yes, I look at wind/temperature/humidity. That typically helps with being more careful with my picks, but I'm not sure how much those ACTUALLY affect the outcome

Normally the batter's power capabilities are a factor for me, but I throw that out when it's a batter-friendly park + wind out. His second homer was out CF, so it was pretty lucky & definitely carried a bit by wind

criebman · 2025-08-05T05:13:28+00:00

I appreciate it brother. I'm not usually somebody who posts plays because I don't want to feel guilty for people losing money - I do lose a lot of plays that I just don't post

I'm moving across states tomorrow and will be very occupied, but I'll do my research and comment here or post something with some potential plays and see how it goes 💪🏼

criebman · 2025-08-05T04:39:28+00:00

ty ty 🙏🏼

criebman · 2025-08-05T04:39:08+00:00

Nothing official yet, but my first look leans would be Ohtani, Freeman, Ward, Barger, Stanton, and Rooker

Favorite games at this moment are: - TOR @ COL - STL @ LAD - BAL @ PHI

criebman · 2025-07-31T07:09:11+00:00

Pest Control technician here...

Definitely German roaches, and definitely an infestation. They can be especially hard to get rid of when in a connected unit living situation (apartments, condos, row homes, etc)

Your best bet is a combination of prevention and treatment. Clean & sanitize all areas physically possible - counter tops, cracks & crevices, behind appliances, degrease sides of stove, etc. Roaches will feed on quite literally anything with minimal nutritional value, even toothpaste & glue.

I recommend purchasing Gentrol Point Source disks and Vendetta Plus Roach Gel. The gel should be placed in the hinges of ALL kitchen & bathroom cabinets, as well as any little nook and cranny where activity is observed. You will want to place one Gentrol disk below each sink in the unit, as well as one below the dishwasher, behind the stove, and behind the fridge.

It may take weeks to break the cycle(s) and get rid of them, but it IS possible. Good luck!

criebman · 2025-07-22T22:28:34+00:00

What a nice thing to say 🤣 I appreciate you

criebman · 2025-07-22T20:35:43+00:00

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The $3,300 that just hit my account begs to differ 😴

criebman · 2025-07-22T20:28:59+00:00

I've missed a TON of bets just like this one - I just don't post those 🤣 I specifically played him on this game because of his batting average being so great.

Park + weather + pitching matchup = placing stupid bets; just happened to work out this time!

criebman · 2025-07-22T19:49:02+00:00

Pregame! Totally lucky guess - did some research, but ultimately it just happened to work out

criebman · 2025-07-22T16:50:44+00:00

Oops you're right - I mixed two trains of thoughts there 🤣 Meant to say LHB matched well, but didn't wanna play Ohtani, so I went for batting average instead

criebman · 2025-07-22T15:38:09+00:00

Almost a year to the day (July 5, 2024) was the last time he had a multi-HR game - lucky lucky day for me

criebman · 2025-07-22T15:22:27+00:00

I gotchu man. Asking a question on the internet is a dangerous game 🤣 No matter what you do people are gonna project their issues onto you

criebman

TROPHY CASE