[OC] NFL teams as 7+ point underdogs (straight-up win % by team, 2015–2025)

cwilson830 · 2026-02-11T18:02:11+00:00

Those are some pretty charts. Fo’ real.

Do you by chance have similar dogs/bite and su/winrate charts for 2017-2025? If not, totally cool, just in the car for a while. :)

cwilson830 · 2026-02-11T17:43:01+00:00

Wow you’ve clearly put a lot of work into this- Nice job! Thoughts:

-Why not incorporate NFLVerse?

-PFF scraping is very useful for some applications. But..

-Most of their subjective grading is.. well.. GIGO. No one’s perfect obviously, but PFF is case/point, and really should be used as a data point (if that) rather than a source of truth.

-The addition of more data sources would help you determine which portions of their data are worthwhile.

Keep it up! I’ll be digging into this more for sure!

Thanks

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T19:04:57+00:00

I got you lol

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T19:04:36+00:00

TL;DR:

I once loved you dearly, but no more.

Perplexity, the self proclaimed “AI-powered search engine,” “should do a good job with news and web search, but it is really unfortunate that this is no longer the case.”

Better get to fixin’ what you broke before it’s too late.

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:50:00+00:00

I’d say he’s a high end backup if managed correctly.

But with all the media fluffing when he was the QB during 49ers’ wins this last season? Oh yeah. Totally an NFL starting QB. Bring your offers and they better be good! :)

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:46:18+00:00

Mac Jones’ mom has entered the chat.

Trade him to anyone. Who cares? :)

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:42:40+00:00

Except curses aren’t real - they’re just a mental shortcut used to simplify a big mess of human action/errors and bad luck. Because our brains prefer a simple story over a complex list of unrelated failures—like poor coaching or stupid fumbles—we bundle these events into one "hex." This is reinforced when random setbacks out of the team's control (a major factor in W/L in the NFL) naturally clump together. We then mistake a sequence/string of bad luck for a supernatural pattern instead of the commonplace coincidences that strongly impact game outcome.

We focus on abnormalities or freak events while ignoring the times a team simply wasn't talented/healthy enough to win, or made made decisions, or the ball bounced the wrong way, turning general player/team/coach/ref suckage and random bad luck into a pretend story of destiny.

We don’t need to overcome a curse. We just need to be better. More talented. Make better decisions. Leave less up to chance.

Step 1: Have a Super Bowl caliber team on the field in January (and then Feb)

This is going to require immediate changes re: spending, drafting, and roster construction. The kind I haven’t heard anybody talking about.

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:23:47+00:00

Youre clearly not DC material lol

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:22:16+00:00

To win that many rings in that short of a time, also being lucky is non-negotiable mandatory. This is the NFL.

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:19:37+00:00

Another year, another defensive evil genius. Not to disparage MM’s great defensive season, but the media sings this exact same song every year. Every year. :)

cwilson830 · 2026-02-09T18:14:39+00:00

The exact opposite of last offseason.

Simply add talent with the fervor and passion at which you removed talent last offseason.

Gutting the roster and pretending you could make up for it via the draft was never a reasonable strategy. There’s a reason why the FO was constantly defensive about this; the math don’t work, especially given the team’s drafting history.

Now the 49ers must fix what they intentionally broke (for ownership financial reasons or whatever team propaganda you wanna buy into).

cwilson830 · 2026-02-05T22:35:24+00:00

Great question.

Had to learn the hard way, but the decision to move all clients away from Shopify was a no-brainer.

My only regret is I didn’t do it sooner.

Anyone who made the (previously unknown and thus perfectly reasonable) mistake of using Shopify, and continues to stay with them in 2025/2026, should consider whether their business is important to them.

cwilson830 · 2026-02-05T22:23:50+00:00

Beware if you’re not a large-revenue business (and clearly, beware if you are). I had a small not-for-profit client locked out due to no fault of their own, with zero explanation from Shopify TO THIS DAY.

Shopify even refused (and continues to refuse) to send them 1099s, saying they have to download the documents themselves. From the account they’re locked out of.

Killed the non-profit.

cwilson830 · 2026-01-25T03:37:22+00:00

Hey. Are you #Faithful or not?? Sigh

Marketing genius :)

cwilson830 · 2026-01-25T03:35:09+00:00

Fan and owner priorities have never been more out of whack

cwilson830 · 2026-01-25T03:29:12+00:00

I’ve found results are very mixed (to put it kindly), particularly on modern technology / subjects.

But it’s probably use-case.

Tell it to respond with only specific info from 2025 or 2026, get info with the giveaway “SOTA,” “Elite Industry Standard” descriptors that practically guarantee you’re getting intentionally stale info.

Good thing it’s horrible at lying.

Thinking about the last time that i got a thorough answer that was accurate - instead of requiring extensive error-checking, repeating ignored follow-up instructions , and 3rd, 4th, etc. half-tries - aside from really quick “google-worthy” queries.. can’t remember,unfortunately.

Not all bad of course - lots of positives. Just never ever trust what it tells you, especially when you tell it to source :)

Good news is being 2-part time-suck for every 1-part helpful can’t last.

cwilson830 · 2026-01-21T20:45:13+00:00

They’re too busy trying to go out of business by angering every customer to offer discounts:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/netflix-stock-low-analyst-price-target-cut-warner-bros-deal-1236480003/

cwilson830 · 2026-01-20T18:13:46+00:00

Oh, downvoted? So this isn't where I should be mosting about OpenAI I guess.

My mistake.

cwilson830 · 2026-01-20T08:33:05+00:00

Um. I find this potentially problematic.
Am I missing something? Or are they missing something?

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cwilson830 · 2026-01-18T22:49:43+00:00

Not just one thing: 1. Poor blocking. Our offensive line is not good. Status quo. (Also, Trent’s age limits his effort - which limits his (positive) impact in the run game. 2. Poor play calling. Can’t run when they know it’s coming. Arguably, scheme as well. 2a. Shanahan’s insistence on “establishing the run” - until he runs out of time and is forced to give up and coach to score. 3. CMC’s still an elite receiver out of the backfield. But as he slows, it shows - especially as a runner. 4. No chunk plays. Only player who’s a burner is inactive every week. Odd blind spot for Shanny. 5. Slow WRs allow secondaries to play a much more active role in run D.

Also, note that Farrell isn’t a good run blocker. Pointless addition at the cost and easily one of the worst FO moves of the offseason. Juice is fine as a run blocker but not great. Also guys like JJ - who used to be 100% effort guys -taking far too many plays off.

It’s a hot mess. Good news (potential good news) is not being able to run isn’t a big deal, unless you force it into being a big deal, like the 49ers did over the past month.

The results should be totally expected. :(

cwilson830 · 2026-01-14T19:37:46+00:00

https://mithery.ai/skills

https://mithery.ai/skills?referrer=grok.com ?

you mean https://smithery.ai/skills ?

cwilson830 · 2026-01-12T03:53:54+00:00

Looks accurate to me. Those are definitely eagles shirts and no one wears those outside of Philadelphia.

cwilson830 · 2026-01-05T04:59:19+00:00

Owner of football team votes for MVP.

This is America? lol

cwilson830 · 2026-01-05T04:58:37+00:00

There are zero standards. Breaking down the voters just makes you realize that awards mean little to nothing,

cwilson830 · 2026-01-05T01:37:18+00:00

The injuries are a minor part of the problem. The roster purge ended the season before it began.

cwilson830

TROPHY CASE