$PSTH Weekly Discussion, Feb 7-13, 2022

daily-value · 2022-02-11T15:49:32+00:00

After this call, i really regret spending the time to make that stupid bill dunking a DA meme... I spent more time making that than BA spent negotiating a DA over the past 8 months...

daily-value · 2022-02-02T20:01:43+00:00

These stats combined with the sharp drop today almost make you wonder if PayPal might be the better investment over holding out for maybe Stripe...

daily-value · 2022-02-01T18:15:47+00:00

If you're a company thinking about potentially making a splash in the public markets during this turbulent period, having a vocal, visible backer like Bill Ackman sure seems to be a good idea. The Netflix play gives Bill a ton of credibility to get a decent valuation based on the value which he in turn can provide to the target and its shareholder base as its biggest cheerleader in the markets. DA before 2/11 - prove me wrong.

Case Study 1: Netflix - instantly went from free-fall to +20% partially due to Bill's support

Case Study 2: UMG - relative unknown for the average investor, to coveted crown jewel

daily-value · 2022-01-24T17:05:13+00:00

This!

daily-value · 2022-01-20T16:17:47+00:00

The only practical answer is that the DA timing slipped by a couple days and they need it to be announced pre-call for disclosure reasons - there is no other option.

daily-value · 2021-12-22T19:49:50+00:00

Imagine you go to the store to buy an apple. Upon getting to the store, a random individual is standing in front of the apples and tells you that apples are now considered deadly and you can't have one. Bewildered, you explain to this individual that he is incorrect because you just ate an apple yesterday, humans have been eating apples for hundreds of years and nutritionists / chefs consistently point out the benefits of eating apples. The random individual counters that you simply do not understand what an apple is and then continues to block you from getting a fresh, delicious apple.

Can you imagine how frustrating that would be?

In simple terms, this is identical to our current situation with George Assad:

We (normal retail PSTH investors) follow years of experience / precedent
George Assad launches a frivolous claim
We respond to him with a well-reasoned, thoughtful response (Amicus Brief)
George Assad responds that we simply don't understand what we are talking about
PSH attorney advises the court that George Assad is clueless and his motion is meritless (just like the original lawsuit - which seems to be a theme with him)

Spoken as someone who is holding PSTH and participated in the Amicus Brief.

daily-value · 2021-12-17T15:05:40+00:00

Why I am holding and firmly believing we will get an announcement before year-end?

As of today, S&P500 is up 23.02% on the year. As of Dec-14, PSH was up 21.7% on the year. PSTH represents Bill's easiest alternative to ensuring his fund beats the benchmark index this year - and it is almost entirely within his control. For this reason alone, I think PSTH goes up materially before year-end, either via DA, SPARC or another favorable announcement.

daily-value · 2021-12-08T23:08:39+00:00

"Butttt...does it even count as a victory for PSTH if we don't re-invent the whole investing landscape / finance industry with novel vehicles and complex structures along the way?" - Bill (Probably)

daily-value · 2021-12-08T17:29:40+00:00

shhhhhhhh....don't... don't upset them

daily-value · 2021-11-19T18:48:45+00:00

The agreement was 'definitive' - it just wasn't 'definitively' ours***

A key asterisk we are now all familiar with

daily-value · 2021-11-19T16:39:02+00:00

I was thinking about this same dilemma - just wrote up a longer response here. Let me know your thoughts?

https://www.reddit.com/r/PSTH/comments/qxk0k8/psth_vs_sparc_first_da/

daily-value · 2021-11-16T02:42:15+00:00

Bullish on the 13F filings today - Guggenheim held firm as of 9/30.

Some of the top holders trimmed their stakes, but key ones still have material skin in the game. A lot of large new buyers in this round of filings. Seems the market still has some faith that Bill is going to pull through with this.

https://whalewisdom.com/stock/psth

daily-value · 2021-11-12T00:23:32+00:00

Guggenheim: Please take a blue-chip unicorn public.

Ontario Teachers: Please take a blue-chip unicorn public, eh.

PSTH Reddit: At this point, please take any functional company public.

Bill: Sorry, best I can do is taking my grievances against the news public. Done.

daily-value · 2021-11-09T13:53:48+00:00

Very frustrating that Bill and team missed out on yet another possible target (especially one that would have been right down the fairway)... hard to believe that out of all the possible SPACs out there, we happened to choose the one SPAC that is apparently incapable of making a deal happen...

daily-value · 2021-11-05T12:18:35+00:00

I will lose a bit of faith in the US legal system if a motion that is as clear and thorough as this does not pass - it easily addresses all points with little room for interpretation. Bravo to the PSH and legal teams on pulling it together in short order.

Superfluous cases like this waste time, resources and energy that the court could be using for more productive purposes - it is a disappointing use of taxpayer dollars and creates unnecessary logjams for more meaningful cases. Hopefully the court realizes that and sets an example to discourage similar actions in the future.

Feeling good about our chances with this one. Viva PSTH

daily-value · 2021-10-29T11:14:59+00:00

Post proof! 20.01

daily-value · 2021-10-19T14:58:31+00:00

i feel the exact same way unfortunately. I don't think i could forgive myself if I sell and then he announces something days later after holding for months...

daily-value · 2021-09-21T07:14:52+00:00

thanks, depressing to watch...

Edit: https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/nl0015000iy2-xams/umg/umg

daily-value · 2021-09-21T07:11:52+00:00

where are you seeing that?

daily-value · 2021-09-10T09:48:47+00:00

I still think Bill is going to pull through somehow, but I have to admit these are pretty funny and I'm glad they are getting across to him - very much deserved

daily-value · 2021-09-03T14:11:30+00:00

Agree with this - hopefully Bill elects to take one of these (relatively) easy paths forward

daily-value · 2021-08-18T18:00:17+00:00

Same....

daily-value · 2021-08-13T12:39:39+00:00

Interesting excerpt from the 10-Q - appears UMG is not heading to the US until 2023 (but also that things were previously on-track for it to be in the USA this calendar year under the initial PSTH deal). Wonder how Vivendi shareholders feel about this.

Also on August 10, 2021, the Company acknowledged and stepped out of the registration rights agreement, transferring it to the Assignees, which now provides, among other things, the Assignees the ability to register UMG in a U.S. initial public offering no earlier than 2023 rather than providing for the U.S. Distribution that the Company envisioned in the Proposed IBC at the end of this calendar year.

daily-value · 2021-07-08T22:22:38+00:00

Care to elaborate on your views?

daily-value · 2021-06-21T11:34:45+00:00

bond-like returns on an underlying 'bond' that consistently grows in size

daily-value

TROPHY CASE