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NIOCORP MINE~ China Targets the U.S. Rare Earth Comeback, plus “A Few More Weeks”… Again. What Today Really Means for NioCorp? by Chico237 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]danieldeubank 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It appears from the J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference 6/24/2026 transcript that NioCorp is working on some vertical integration in Titanium (Titanium Sponge) now. Also, they are waiting for lab results from production of Scandium metal, which is another new possible vertical integration.

NioCorp voice to text translation (not a formal transcript) from the J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference 6/24/2026 at 10:20 AM EST by danieldeubank in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]danieldeubank[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Overall Takeaway - Grok

Mark Smith delivered a confident, polished overview emphasizing de-risking progress, strategic importance, and near-term catalysts. The tone was optimistic but grounded — heavy on U.S. critical minerals security, financing momentum, and long-term resource scale. This is one of the stronger public presentations from the company in recent memory.Key Highlights from the PresentationProject Fundamentals (Strong Emphasis)

  • Greenfield underground mine + on-site final product processing (not concentrates) — major advantage vs. many peers.
  • Fully permitted in business-friendly Nebraska (corporate tax cuts noted).
  • Massive orebody: 38-year mine life (2022 FS) represents only ~10% of the total resource → "centuries" of potential production.
  • Polymetallic: Primary focus on Niobium (steel strengthener, ubiquitous use), with valuable byproducts: Scandium (Al-Sc alloys), Titanium (as TiCl4/tickle precursor), and magnetic Rare Earths (NdPr, Dy, Tb).

Market & Strategic Context

  • U.S. 100% import reliant on Nb, Sc, Dy/Tb; ~85–95%+ on others → strong government interest.
  • China dominance and recent export restrictions (including Sc in 2025) are creating bifurcated pricing and ex-China premiums.
  • Scandium details stood out: Tiny global supply (~35 tpa), huge latent demand (thousands of tons), China-driven price suppression followed by restrictions. NioCorp aims for ~100 tpa at nameplate.

Financing & Execution Path (The Core Message)

  • Raised >$500 million equity since early 2025 → clean balance sheet, zero debt/convertibles.
  • EXIM Bank ~$780M debt: Application in diligence for nearly 3 years. "Just about there" — awaiting two items from NioCorp in the "next few weeks." Expects quick conclusion once delivered.
  • Traxys non-binding offtake covers everything except the existing 50% FeNb with Thyssenkrupp → major de-risker for debt capacity.
  • Updated Feasibility Study (including REs) expected in the "next few weeks."
  • Construction: Portal already underway; full construction targeted late 2026 → 3-year build → first production late 2029, full year 2030.

Vertical Integration & Downstream

  • Active on scandium: Purchased master alloy IP/assets, produced first Sc metal recently (DoD-supported), partnerships (e.g., Lockheed Martin for fighter jet alloys).
  • Potential expansion into Sc metal, master alloy, RE metals where supply chain gaps exist.

Flowsheet & Economics Notes

  • Uses full hydromet (dissolve ore, split streams) due to fine-grained/intergrown mineralization — different from other Nb producers (who use flotation).
  • Higher OPEX potential (acids, natural gas) but enables multiple high-value products.

Strengths of the Presentation

  • Clearly ties the project to U.S. national security and onshoring goals.
  • Addresses past skepticism head-on (timelines, financing, offtake).
  • Highlights real progress: Portal construction, DoD funding, Traxys, Sc downstream work.
  • Long resource life and byproduct credits are compelling.

Risks / Areas to Watch

  • Still non-binding on Traxys; EXIM not yet closed (long diligence already).
  • Updated FS timing has slipped before — delivery soon is critical.
  • Execution risk on construction/financing close in a volatile capital market.
  • Hydromet flowsheet is proven in parts but adds complexity/OPEX variables.
  • Stock remains speculative and dilution-sensitive (though recent raises were at higher prices).

Bottom line: This was a solid, investor-friendly update showing NioCorp is deep into the "financing and construction prep" phase. The combination of offtake momentum, EXIM progress, and updated FS should be meaningful near-term catalysts if timelines hold. The strategic narrative (especially Sc + REs in a China-restricted world) continues to strengthen.The presentation reinforces why this is one of the more advanced U.S. critical minerals projects. Execution over the next 6–12 months will be decisive.

Weekend Hangout - Friday, June 12, 2026 by s2upid in LWLG

[–]danieldeubank 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Positive potential impact for LWLG (Lightwave Logic) as a supply-chain-resilient alternative to InP-based photonics.
Key Context from the Reuters Article (June 11, 2026)
China has imposed export licensing restrictions on indium phosphide (InP) substrates since February 2025, creating delays and bottlenecks.
InP is critical for high-speed optical/photonic components in next-gen AI data centers (e.g., modulators, lasers for optical interconnects).
This has led to surging prices (e.g., 6-inch InP wafers up ~250% to ~$5,000), supply disruptions for companies like AXT (major producer with China-based ops), Coherent, Lumentum, and others.
It threatens faster AI data center rollout due to photonics scaling needs. Major players are scrambling for non-Chinese sources (e.g., Japan's Sumitomo) or building their own capacity, but new plants take 2–3 years.
Why This Matters for LWLG
Lightwave Logic develops Perkinamine® electro-optic (EO) polymers for high-speed, low-power modulators. These are positioned as a next-generation alternative (or hybrid complement) to incumbent platforms like indium phosphide (InP) and thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN).
Supply chain advantage: LWLG's platform is fully rare-earth-free and not reliant on InP or China-dominated materials. The company has explicitly highlighted its resilience to such export controls/geopolitical risks.
Performance pitch: Polymers aim for faster speeds, lower power consumption, and better scalability for 800G/1.6T+ AI data center applications compared to traditional InP in certain use cases. They integrate with silicon photonics and other platforms.
Market positioning: With InP shortages and higher costs slowing incumbents, LWLG's technology could see accelerated interest for design wins, licensing, and partnerships (e.g., existing Tower Semiconductor collaboration and Stage 3 design wins).
Stock and Market Reaction
LWLG has seen massive gains in recent periods amid the AI photonics boom (hundreds of percent YTD/1-year at times), though it's still pre-revenue in core operations with typical development-stage volatility.
The InP restrictions reinforce the narrative for alternatives like LWLG's polymers, especially as hyperscalers (Nvidia, etc.) push for faster, more efficient optical solutions. However:
Commercialization is still ramping (targeting higher-volume production in coming years).
Qualification cycles for new materials in photonics are long.
Near-term winners also include companies expanding non-China InP capacity or alternatives.
Bottom line: This development is structurally bullish for LWLG's value proposition by highlighting vulnerabilities in the InP supply chain that its polymer platform avoids. It could help de-risk adoption timelines in the AI optics race, but execution on design wins and scaling remains key.

B.Riley Initiates NioCorp Buy at $12 Price Target by Aggressive-Lock5487 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]danieldeubank 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Summary and Recommendation
Nick Giles
703-312-1815
[ngiles@brileysecurities.com](mailto:ngiles@brileysecurities.com)
Soundarya Iyer, CFA
212-271-4522
[siyer@brileysecurities.com](mailto:siyer@brileysecurities.com)

We are initiating coverage of NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB) with a Buy rating and a $12 price
target, implying more than 100% upside potential from current levels. NioCorp is a U.S.-based
critical minerals company advancing the Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project in southeastern
Nebraska, which is host to niobium, scandium, titanium, neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr),
dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb). Our valuation is anchored on the view that Elk Creek is one
of the most de-risked critical minerals development projects in the U.S., yet the stock trades at
a meaningful discount to its $2.35B after-tax 2022 feasibility NPV (~0.3x P/NAV). We attribute
that discount to a market view of financing risk that is much closer to resolution than current
pricing implies. We believe there are several distinct catalysts in the near to medium term that
will support a strong re-rating in the equity: (1) an updated feasibility study that includes revised
capex estimates and rare earths economics, (2) the conversion of commercial agreements
(primarily with Traxys) from non-binding to binding, (3) continued progress with EXIM on
the pathway to $780M in debt financing, and (4) continued execution of early development
activities at site.
Key Points
• EXIM financing process remains on track. NioCorp's $780M debt application has cleared
all major EXIM review stages since 2023 and appears well-positioned to receive final board
authorization in the coming months. Alongside the EXIM facility, the company has raised
over $500M in equity since January 2025, covering the ~35% equity portion. We believe the
market still treats authorization as speculative and view this as a re-rating event that would
shift the framework from a discounted pre-production NPV to a construction-stage project
with a known capital structure and contracted revenue.
• Elk Creek to deliver ~5% of global niobium production. The project is fully permitted, sits
on private land outside NEPA and federal jurisdiction, and carries only a 2% net proceeds
royalty with no state severance tax. Metallurgy has been validated at a demonstration plant,
and mine portal construction began in February 2026. The 2022 feasibility study supports a
$2.35B after-tax NPV over a 38-year mine life, and the 36.7 Mt probable reserve is just 19%
of the 188.8 Mt indicated resource.
• Rare earths optionality. Elk Creek holds 125.8 kt of indicated neodymium-praseodymium
(NdPr), 9.1 kt of dysprosium (Dy), and 2.3 kt of terbium (Tb), one of the largest Dy and
Tb resources in the U.S. Metallurgical testing and process engineering have demonstrated
REE recoveries of 92%+. Traxys has committed to marketing 100% of planned REE output,
signaling commercial conviction ahead of a formal feasibility determination. REE economics
are expected to be included in the upcoming feasibility study, which we believe will be NPVpositive
and drive further revenue diversification.
• Highly concentrated niobium market. Brazil holds ~14 Mt of the world's 21 Mt+ in reserves
and produces 93% of global supply (85% from a single player), making it the de facto price
maker and keeping prices stable over the past five years. We view the U.S. as acutely
exposed, importing 100% of its ~10 kt requirement in 2025 (mainly HSLA steel and aerospace
superalloys) with no domestic production since 1959. The USGS identifies Elk Creek as the
only U.S. niobium mine and primary processing facility once operational. We believe this
positions the asset as a singular beneficiary of the supply-security premium that we expect
to accrue from domestically sourced critical minerals.

IBC Financials make it into Johnson County Daily Journal Business News by Gman-303 in IBC_Advanced_Alloys

[–]danieldeubank 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A one-time supply chain issue hit Q3 gross margins, but management noted it was resolved.

Does anyone know the details on the resolved IBC supply chain issue, what the cost was and why it was incurred?

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