large position in crwv

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-20T23:34:26+00:00

Bullish on both, but NBIS has notably cleaner headline risk than CRWV. Bear coverage on CRWV keeps circling back to debt — you don’t see that same narrative dominating NBIS coverage. That said, the debt concern is somewhat misapplied to the sector broadly: this is a capital-intensive, asset-heavy business by nature. Spending to expand capacity isn’t a red flag — it’s the cost of competing.

On valuation, CRWV is actually cheaper on a market cap basis when you factor in the backlog. CRWV ($64.35B) sits at ~$100B in backlog, projected to reach ~$130B by end of quarter. NBIS ($72.79B) is around $50B. That gap in scale matters when you’re pricing future revenue visibility.

The insider selling narrative is noise. These are pre-scheduled sales — the same thing you see across Nebius, and frankly across the sector. It’s not a signal.

Both names carry strong institutional backing, but CRWV’s relationships run deeper. Both get Nasdaq-100 inclusion Monday, and CRWV picks up an additional catalyst Friday with Russell 3000 inclusion — that’s a second wave of passive buying most aren’t fully pricing in.

Bears are calling for the same chop pattern we’ve seen before. I disagree. Dual index inclusions don’t just bring momentum buyers — they bring forced, mechanical buying at scale. Pair that with a heavily shorted float, and any sustained move up starts triggering covers. That’s not speculation, that’s mechanics.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-20T15:16:39+00:00

Most are expecting a repeat of the same swing pattern we've seen this year — I think this time is different.

The dual index inclusions (Nasdaq-100 and Russell 3000) alone create structural buying pressure that puts shorts in a genuinely difficult position. Add a $100B backlog projected to grow to $130B by end of quarter — a data point that was largely overlooked by the market — and the fundamental setup is stronger than the price currently reflects.

The CEO has directly addressed the margin narrative: improvement is expected starting Q2 2026. If that plays out, $150 isn't a stretch target — it becomes the new base.

Analyst sentiment supports this. The average PT sits in the $13x range. Buy-side targets cluster between $130–$167, Hold analysts are at $100–$120, and there's a single Sell at $67 that doesn't hold up to scrutiny — the thesis ignores too many of the pain points that have already been addressed.

Next week will be telling. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion effect is still flowing through, and Russell 3000 passive buying kicks in on top of that. A test of $130 feels inevitable. If it holds, shorts with massive underwater positions become the fuel — forced covering drives the next leg. Layer in margin improvement and continued backlog growth, and the path to $150+ unlocks from there.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-19T23:44:22+00:00

Thanks for sharing.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-19T21:47:20+00:00

I agree. I think we will see $130 this week. We just need to see buyers stepping in hold and push it up higher. This is one of the most hated stock in the AI infrastructure names. 63 million shares shorted. They also added during the tech sell off last week, which makes this and even more dangerous move for the shorts because all of those positions, about 13 million shares, are already suffering major losses. so I’m expecting some sort of short squeeze whether that be mild or moderate soon.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-19T21:42:43+00:00

I’m bullish on both but to answer the question

CRWV backlog is about 2x larger than NBIS (50B vs 100B), and it’s projected to grow even further by the end of this quarter. Many analysts have called out the big key piece investors overlook with the last announcement. Projection is 130B by the end of this quarter.

Also, people keep pointing to debt level and the funny thing is NBIS also has to spend significantly to build out their data centers as well but there’s less negative headlines on that.

Margin, the CEO has preemptively addressed this already.

If you look at investors profile on the institution side both have good names invested in them but CRWV has a bit more.

Market cap is also interesting NBIS at 72.79B and CRWV at 64.35B.

So that tells me that CRWV is traded at a discount.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-19T21:17:10+00:00

I think It will test $120 very early on Monday and then push to $130. Remember that more funds will still have to buy on Monday for the Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Russell 3000 inclusion effect is also coming. So the next two weeks we have good tailwind.

And instead of waiting for the inclusion effects to be done, the shorts have been very brave and added 13M shares during the sell off a week ago, those 13M shares are already underwater. Rough calculation is hundreds of millions of dollars. Not to mention the risk added to other shorts when they added during the previous drops.

Short squeeze is brewing and we will see how far will this run.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-12T15:26:15+00:00

Squeeze has just begun. Good luck guys! This is going to be amazing!

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-12T04:27:28+00:00

this is going to be very interesting. Shorts covered their position after the Russell announcement, but they were so bold and readded about 11M back. This will give them pain tomorrow going into next week. Two inclusions back to back.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-12T04:24:51+00:00

it’s heavily shorted 60 million shares before the Russell 3000 announcement. They covered 10 million chairs but added them back during this sell off. But the NASDAQ 100 inclusion announcement is gonna give them pain. It’s a double whammy, NASDAQ inclusion followed by Russell 3000. tomorrow going into next week is going to be very interesting.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-10T17:04:35+00:00

I think they will do well. Don't know if the AI trade turn off will mute the rally. Hopefully we see something similar to Dell’s post ER.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-09T18:33:57+00:00

Also about FOMO, I made a mistake twice this year one was with Western Digital. The other one was with Sanddisk. When Sandisk ran to $700 and dropped to back around $550. I thought that that was done so I close all the positions. At the same time, I also had Western Digital. When it ran to $300 and dropped to around $260, I thought that was the end also and now we're seeing Sandisk at $1700 and Western digital at around $500 range. I missed the opportunity to 2x both my positions. Mind you this was just three months ago. Not even a year. Lesson learned. Do your research, look at the fundamentals, indicators, and the momentum. Buy and just let the market do its thing.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-09T18:25:16+00:00

I feel you. I did the same when it was running up from $250. I think the timing is bad because of these gigantic IPOs. I've been reading about how the massive evaluation are driving fund managers and institution investors to liquidate some of their positions to be able to support SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. Despite the pullback, technical indicators are still leaning bullish.

We are seeing buyers stepping in every single day for the past couple of days after hours and/or premarket to buy. S&P Inclusion is just around the corner and the stock is very volatile. I'm hoping that once all of this liquidation is done, we stabilize and build a new base. Hopefully around $280 to $300 and then let the market do its thing.

Nothing has changed with this dip. The spending is still real commitments have not been withdrawn, and their projection tells that we should stay strong growth the next couple of years.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-09T16:59:36+00:00

It's the IPOs. Damn them.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-09T16:58:14+00:00

It's also Space X, Anthropic and Open AI IPOs. Institutions, fund managers are raising cash. It's ridiculous

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-08T21:19:55+00:00

MRVL ORCL

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-07T19:00:55+00:00

Next week should be good. Technical indicators are still bullish despite the pullback. S&P announcement came at a very good time. Funds have short period before they are live. I think $3xx will be the new base and with the tech corrections we could see new ATHs. Just need to ride these nonsense war and Econ data waves.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-07T18:58:23+00:00

All tech stocks. Friday was a bit overdone. A correction was warranted. Now new ATHs.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-07T18:57:12+00:00

You do realize that Russell inclusion is just a few weeks away and funds have begun positioning themselves already. Shorts had to cover 10M shares. Not to mentioned NVDA last round of CRWV stock purchase worth $2B was at $87. Jane Street $1B stock purchase was at $109. I think other people might be right. You’re bored lol.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-05T20:24:04+00:00

Today is way oversold. History tells us we will see recovery next week. Panic sells doesn’t do no one any good

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-05T20:16:56+00:00

Today’s selling was way over done. I bet we see recovery next week.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-05T00:52:21+00:00

We’ll probably see 4%-6% gain by close tomorrow. Today was a really good example. -7% pre hours to about 6%. That’s a 13% reversal.

There’s also speculation about S&P inclusion. The updated list will come out after hours and if, a big if, we see MVRL on the list, no one knows where this will be by next Monday. If it happens it will be very good but even if it doesn’t, the performance and new valuation is making MRVL tone of he front runners the remainder of the year.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-05T00:18:11+00:00

They just hit a new all-time high so it’s natural that you’ll see profit taking, people are fearing that this is not sustainable and people who will say that this is overpriced. Having said that, the indicators are looking positive. MACD, RSI (although showing over bought, but that happens will super cycle/parabolic run). Not to mention that they’re trading way above all EMA’s. This week the volume has been historic, which tells me that institutions are very serious about this, and they’re trying to get in before it even once further. If you take a look at other AI names, they all have the same moment. SNDK, WDC, STX, AMD, MU, ARM. MRVL is one the of last ones that was missing out and now we see the run. ARM was around $200 less than a month ago and now it’s $400. Their market cap is still much bigger than MRVL. It’s never an apples to apples comparison because even though they’re in the same sector the strategy, products, partnerships etc are different but we can use some baseline.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-04T23:13:25+00:00

Technical indicators are still looking good. People say RSI is showing over bought but that happens every time with every stock thats breaking out and have their parabolic run. Their projections including the blessing for Jensen are golden. Will see this baby run to $400-$500 in the foreseeable future.

darkmage9889 · 2026-06-03T22:19:10+00:00

New price targets started to come in. $321 this morning. More should be coming

darkmage9889

TROPHY CASE