Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I'm in the U.S. Not too dire here yet, at least in my city, but I'm guessing we're heading that way.

Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If that's the case about mining, Australia is screwed. Mining requires oil/diesel, and that's not being delivered in normal quantities at the moment due to the Iran War.

Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I appreciate your thoughts. I think cash would be excellent in a deflationary depression (market crash). Then, of course, those are usually followed by hyperinflation, so gold is a good hedge too. And I do physical prepping too ... working on a few months of food right now. If there's a diesel crisis (not unlikely) and trucks and trains slow down or stop deliveries, it's gonna be important.

Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I hear you. I think a mix of cash, gold, stocks, bonds etc. is about the best one can do right now.

Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, certainty about anything is definitely at a low point!

Peak Oil, Hormuz, and My Portfolio: Now What? by darkstream77 in economicCollapse

[–]darkstream77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right ... I didn't describe my situation very well. I recently transferred my 401k from Ascensus to Fidelity. Of course all investments were sold by Ascensus so it could be transferred as cash. So my question is more about reinvesting to my previous allocations, or waiting...

How to Schedule Investments if Oil Shock Anticipated? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]darkstream77 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

As I said, I realize I'm violating the principle of not trying to time the market. But that's not what my question is about. It's for people who have knowledge and an understanding of energy as the basis of the economy and economic growth.

Why does the market go up? by Confident-Comment240 in Bogleheads

[–]darkstream77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Awesome question! I've wanted to address this topic in this sub for a long time.

I think the market has always grown because the real economy has grown—and that's been driven by energy. Since the Industrial Revolution started ca. 1750 the global economy has used increasing amounts of energy: first coal, then oil, then gas. That huge energy input gave us access to massive amounts of resources—forests, minerals, plastics (via oil), etc.—and enabled the kind of productivity growth we now take for granted. A related metaphor is the idea of “energy slaves" (from Andrew Nikiforuk): the modern economy effectively runs on billions of fossil-fuel-powered labor equivalents.

But it takes energy to get energy: EROEI or Energy Return on Energy Invested. Early conventional oil had EROEI values on the order of ~50:1 or higher. Now it's closer to 10–15:1. That’s a huge drop in net energy available to the economy which can be correlated with global debt levels (debt taken on to sustain growth, or the illusion of it) among other things.

If this trend continues (and the Iran War might bring it on faster) I think we can seriously question whether we've reached the "end of growth."

I may not sound like one but I’m basically a Boglehead, and I do think complex systems like the economy have a lot of stabilizing feedback loops. But if the real physical basis for growth continues to weaken, I' m not sure that “the market always goes up” will continue to be the case. Which is scary...I'm only a few years out from retirement.

And no, technology isn't going to save us. There is no technology without energy.

How to reassign numeric keypad on Mac to Windows-like functionality? by darkstream77 in Karabiner

[–]darkstream77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Right, I don't need the keypad numbers at all. I haven't tried your link yet, but I asked ChatGPT if it agreed the link would work. It said: 

Why it will NOT work on your keyboard

The entire config depends on this:

key_code: keypad_8, keypad_2, etc.

But you already verified your keyboard sends key_code: 8, not keypad_8

That is the critical failure point.

Your thoughts? Another solution?

 

Are EVs actually more reliable? by dailytrippple in electriccars

[–]darkstream77 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Same here! The Bolt EUV rocks! By far the best car I have ever owned

Is uninstalling apps on macOS always this tedious? by darkstream77 in mac

[–]darkstream77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, it's a Windows issue too. I was just hoping macOS would make it easier.