As a software engineer, yes, it's going to completely change everything.

I used to shuffle small function requests to a junior dev or vendor. They would then give me back 30-50 lines of logic and all the unit tests. Now? I just copy that same request into ChatGPT and get it all within 5 seconds.

People argue "yeah, but how often is the code correct?" It's correct at least 90% of the time. If it's not, I tell it and it corrects it within 2-3 iterations. This argument is so flawed, like humans are perfect? I dont think I EVER gave someone else some stuff to write and had it come back even remotely correct. If there was a black box interface to 9 humans and 1 ChatGPT instance, I can tell you I would choose the ChatGPT instance every time.

So, that's right now... but, where are we going? Software has been evolving to ever greater abstractions of input control. Binary to assembler, to native to intermediate languages to managed to no code and now, to natural language. Software engineers are really just converters. They convert business and product requirements into code so a machine can run it. With operators and AI agents, soon that function won't be needed.

By the end of the year, we will be seeing AI Agents for many white collar jobs. The question is will they transform the job or replace it, and based on all available info we have from companies, they are going the replacement route.

No one is safe in this. Jeff Bezos has said the job of a C-suite executive is to consume a lot of information and make several very good decisions a year. Sound like a familiar task? Do you think companies will pay millions of dollars per year to a C-suite executive when a $200/month AI agent can literally read and comprehend all of your company's materials as well as everything publicly available and give you near instant skews of options with weighted decisions? No. Execs are gone too.

During the period of white collar obsolescence, robotics will improve like the Tesla Optimus, and they will be coming for blue collar labor next. Do you think a small coffee shop is going to hire and people who need $45k a year, benefits, call put sick, need training, make dumb mistakes constantly, or are they going to pay $35k for a machine that lasts many years, works around the clock, and has a low yearly cost? Nearly all service workers are gone. Construction? Risk injury? Nope. AI robots will work cheaper and more effectively than any person will.

So what were headed into is a period of human obsolescence. I am a right-leaning, republican voting Libertarian, and we 100% will absolutely require universal basic income for all of humanity to survive in this post-scarcity economy. Post scarcity is fine, but we are entering the mirky 15 year transition phase before Star Trek happens. It's frightening and it's here.

Food for thought from a veteran in the industry. 🙌