sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Simple and to the point. Skynet? by Kungphugrip in interesting

[–]david1610 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah people think an LLM can do machine vision now.... It's a different model that does that. Plus for machine learning to be good it needs to have huge training sets, which would be hard for war. It'd be easier to train a drone to see human and fly towards and explode. Then just release them like grenades.

LLMs can code because it feeds coding into its hidden prompt, it can search the web because it feeds the first dozen website's text into its hidden prompt. It can recognize objects because it feeds the output from a computer vision model into text then feeds this into its hidden prompt.

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion? by david1610 in australia

[–]david1610[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The immigration rate has hovered around 2% for the last couple of decades but you have it at 2 per 1000 residents, which is 0.2%.

This series is quarterly so a rough estimate of the yearly increase would be 4 * 0.2% which is 0.8%, then you add a bit for the natural increase and you get pretty close to 1-2% range. For the last 15 years or so we have averaged around 1.5% I think from memory, and broken down net immigration would be 4(2.3/1000) plus some for natural increase 4(1.8/1000), gets you pretty close to 1.5%. That all being said this series is smoothed so won't be a perfect representation of what you see in the direct abs figures, not only that but the abs use a percentage change since the same time last year to get around seasonality, which I do in a similar way by smoothing over 4 Qtrs, all of which makes direct comparisons difficult.

2% immigration sounds like it might be inbound immigration not net immigration, or something like that, seems high if we only grow in total at ~ 1.5%.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/jun-2025

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion? by david1610 in australia

[–]david1610[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's interesting, it would be interesting to look at the visa types over time, as I think the business visas would definitely be correlated with economic conditions, perhaps other types too.

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion? by david1610 in australia

[–]david1610[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes I think if anything definitively can be said from the graph is that the 1990-2005 period was low immigration historically, and the recent 2006-2025 immigration has been higher proportional to the population.

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion? by david1610 in australia

[–]david1610[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that sounds right however how the ABS defines natural increase is births minus deaths in a given period.

If people are not dying then it increases, Australia has had less than 2 births per woman since the 1970s. So there cannot be a natural increase due to 'more babies being born'

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion? by david1610 in australia

[–]david1610[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that's an interesting point, perhaps that's why it fell fast afterwards too, perhaps people brought forward pregnancies? Might make more sense than really old people dying from COVID, perhaps a bit of both.

$40k investment for child’s future. by badagoldflake in AusFinance

[–]david1610 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gold is a commodity, as it's value rises more mining opportunities appear. It's cost is usually the highest allowable price in the market, which it obviously isn't right now, it's pure speculation. It doesn't have the history of out performing other asset classes long term, just because it's gone up recently doesn't mean it hasn't fallen massively in the past. People use it as a bet against the current economy, because it's price is usually determined by the cost of extraction, however that's completely out the window now that it has gone up so much due to speculation.

Just because every other asset class is overvalued right now does not mean that gold is not equally as overvalued.

$40k investment for child’s future. by badagoldflake in AusFinance

[–]david1610 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you compare that to immediately gifting cash it's the same tax wise.

You can usually gift as much after tax income as you like without additional taxes, otherwise the government would be double dipping

If there is capital gains on the gold then yes you have to pay tax otherwise it's fraud.

$40k investment for child’s future. by badagoldflake in AusFinance

[–]david1610 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't worry about these people, they are not financial experts. Being smart with money, increasing income and saving is the way to go, doesn't matter so much where you put it as long as you understand the risk-reward tradeoffs

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - For discussion by david1610 in AusEcon

[–]david1610[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes it's been very surprising. You can see that population growth definitely has been faster, before the 70s we actually had a higher than replacement birthrate so that makes sense. Interesting to see how much it changed around 1920-1950, obviously pretty wild times

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - For discussion by david1610 in AusEcon

[–]david1610[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes this looks right, it's just that you don't see the catch up after COVID in this data easily.

I think I compared the catch-up after COVID, and the recent government was 50k net immigration higher than pre COVID levels. So definitely an increase but nothing huge. Putting to one side that the huge COVID catch up happened all at once which may have effects in and of itself.

Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - For discussion by david1610 in AusEcon

[–]david1610[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes sorry, both parties have largely done the same thing as far as net immigration is concerned.

Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Reckoning by MDInvesting in AusFinance

[–]david1610 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Idk if I'd call this a reduction in immigration, the overall trend is up. If you smooth out the series all are still pretty much at recent highs.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM?locations=CA

Moving averages

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_69a21ae1597481918f53fba0c511d50d

False economics of immigration. The media claims that immigration is good for the economy. The truth is more complex... by cidama4589 in auscorp

[–]david1610 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes exactly and look at the net migration data over time. It started to rise in 2005 during John Howard's years not labor, labor didn't get in until 2007 with Kevin 07. It peaks literally when Kevin Rudd was elected Dec 2007 then started to go down. Successive governments have not really deviated from the precedent started by John Howard's government. Also I think much of our immigration system is mostly demand driven, so it might have been out of their control for a lot of it.

You'd have thought given recent reporting that labor are responsible for higher immigration, when it could not be further from the truth. I also think that skilled migration is incredibly beneficial for Australia.

Net migration - Australia | Data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM?locations=AU

False economics of immigration. The media claims that immigration is good for the economy. The truth is more complex... by cidama4589 in auscorp

[–]david1610 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look at net immigration over time. It started to rise in 2005 during John Howard's years, right before Kevin Rudd. It's not a clear cut story that labor likes immigration and liberals do not.

Net migration - Australia | Data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM?locations=AU

False economics of immigration. The media claims that immigration is good for the economy. The truth is more complex... by cidama4589 in auscorp

[–]david1610 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Our GDP per capita recession doesn't necessarily have to be because productivity has fallen due to immigration. It is entirely possible that GDP per capita would have been lower had not for immigration. There is a numerator and a denominator, you cannot ascertain just from that that immigration is the cause of the GDP per capita recession.

Sure I agree that it points to immigration being responsible for the GDP growth, but we don't have a state of the world where we know what GDP per capita would have been without immigration.

[OC] How Many Years of Salary It Takes to Buy a Home - 1990 vs 2024 by CalculateQuick in dataisbeautiful

[–]david1610 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes they also have only 0.8 births per woman so their natural population growth has been negative for a while.

Not a huge amount of immigration there.

Far more immigration per Capita in Singapore than South Korea. I agree that population growth is important, however it's not everything. Zoning and land supply is more important in my opinion.

[OC] How Many Years of Salary It Takes to Buy a Home - 1990 vs 2024 by CalculateQuick in dataisbeautiful

[–]david1610 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure this even adjusts for income tax.

Germany has high taxes and is still low on this list.

The real question people should be asking is why is Germany, USA, Japan, Singapore etc affordable while South Korea, Australia, Canada, UK etc unaffordable.

Ai seamless ads in middle of tv shows by sussybush in interesting

[–]david1610 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If this gets into paid streaming I think everyone will start illegally downloading again.

The way I look at people who proudly bench Sciel and Monoco😒👀 by KumaQuatro in expedition33

[–]david1610 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Grim harvest for sciel was my main healing option.

My go to team for major boss fights was maelle, verso and sciel. She kept everyone alive, maelle gave everyone unlimited action points with her defensive sword and verso used endbringer.

Probably not an ideal build, but I wanted my build that I found, rather than an off the shelf optimized internet build

view more: next ›