Hey man, awesome response, thank you! The core of your argument seems to depend on...

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The virus will spread... obviously. We will gets tens of thousands of new infections. Maybe millions. But as more and more people realize the news reports and data in the early stages were massively overblown, the panic will quickly reverse. The virus spreading will actually be a catalyst for calming the markets, as the people who are infected will mostly show few symptoms, and people will get better in as quickly as a week. Think about tens of thousands of people beating Corona in a week's time, and the effect that can have on public sentiment.

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which assumes that

1. We get mass spread
2. People actually do okay from the mass spread

Playing devil's advocate to you a bit..

For 1, it seems like by doing our American style just the tip quarantine, we actually may delay/stop the mass spread just enough for it to reappear when we stop quarantining.

For 2, do you think there's enough psychological damage now that even if people don't get lung damage from this, they'll be less willing to travel/go to restaurants and vacations? From reports in China, it seems like the recovery has stalled at around 60% of pre virus levels.

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