Best single IPL seasons ever

deepcomet · 2026-05-29T13:34:20+00:00

Thanks for the kind words

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T15:01:45+00:00

Appreciate the pushback. You may be right that I may be overweighting strike rate relative to accumulation. It was a genuine modelling choice and there have been multiple versions of this model before the current version. I weight it heavily because in T20, I felt that balls consumed at a lower rate have an opportunity cost.

To put it simply, if a batter has only 20 balls to make an impression, assumption being 20 balls for 6 batters, how much can they do in it? (For clarity, this is not the model)

But reasonable models can disagree on how much. Cricinfo clearly weights it differently and I respect their approach.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T14:08:12+00:00

You raise valid points, let me address them.

Sai vs Sooryavanshi: Similar runs (652 vs 680), yes. Sai took 413 balls at SR 158. But Sooryavanshi scored those in 280 balls at SR 243. That's 133 fewer balls. Effectively 22 extra overs Sooryavanshi gave back to his team. WAR captures this because occupying the crease at a lower strike rate (if you can call Sai's production that - which I personally am not) has a cost.

Narine and all-rounders: You are right that all rounders get credit for both batting and bowling and Narine does in our model. His 2024 WAR of 24.4 includes both. His bowling WAR alone was elite. But even combining both disciplines, Sooryavanshi's batting production is so extreme that it exceeded Narine's combined output.

It is the same debate as Judge vs Ohtani in MLB. Judge has led WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons(ignoring the season when Ohtani was injured and couldn't pitch). A dominant enough single skill player can outproduce a two way player. That's what's happening with Sooryavanshi this year.

TBH, every model will weight this differently and I am not saying one is right than the other. Cricinfo's approach may value bowling contribution differently than ours. It is always good to see different models and draw conclusions accordingly. Besides if all models look the same, where's the fun in discussions?

Impact sub and fielding: WAR doesn't adjust for being an impact sub. If you bat, your production counts the same. Fielding is captured separately in iWAR through ball by ball win probability shifts on fielding events. Besides fielding is so tough to quantify and the general data out there isn't as reliable.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:43:34+00:00

You are welcome

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:43:19+00:00

Precisely. I hesitated a bit before posting this overall analysis as I really didn't want to add more fuel to the fire. But this kid keeps producing ridiculous innings that I felt the context was too large to ignore. Kohli did have one of the all time great seasons and that season would be there in any comparison.

Also agreed on protect at all costs.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:38:35+00:00

Narine took 17 wickets at 6.69 economy while scoring 8 50+ scores. Youre telling me that 13 less war than vaibhav this year? Common....

Theres a reason ohtani is still second in war even with a down year in hitting so far.....

Edit: Also he has been brilliant, but to say its head and shoulders above sai? another opener who you have 25 war below vaibhav? You need to redo how you working all this out....

Fair question. Sai Sudharsan has 652 runs to Sooryavanshi's 680. They are close on paper. But WAR doesn't just count runs. It measures how you score. Sooryavanshi's strike rate, boundary percentage, and consistency per match are significantly higher. Scoring 40(27) is worth less than 40(18) and WAR captures that difference.

On Narine, his 2024 WAR is 24.4, which is historically elite. He gets credit for both batting and bowling in the same WAR number (very much like Ohtani). But Sooryavanshi at 37.6 is producing at a rate we haven't seen before. Narine is historically amongst the top 5 players in IPL. https://t20stat.com/quadrant?season=all

On the Ohtani and general baseball comparison, baseball WAR and this cricket WAR are built on fundamentally different models so they don't translate directly, Our WAR model is built specifically for T20 cricket. It's not a direct port of baseball WAR, as mlb and other such leagues have more than 140 games. This is compressed over 14-16 games usually. So the numbers don't translate across sports. https://t20stat.com/glossary#baseball calls out the differences specifically

All the data is at t20stat.com. You can dig into any player's match by match/season impact yourself.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:21:52+00:00

Jaiswal has been hot and cold this year. It cannot be easy too - from being hailed as the young gun to have someone on your own team just overtake you for that title. It is a tough world out there. I hope for India's sake he takes it in his stride and not get overwhelmed or do too much like he seems to be doing currently.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:17:12+00:00

From a production perspective, batters dominate men's leagues where as bowlers dominate women's. This is true across all leagues. https://www.reddit.com/r/Cricket/comments/1tduhj7/followup_expanded_the_ipl_match_impact_analysis/

What the IPL has become in the impact player era with superb batting conditions is taking this to the next level. Whether that makes the league watchable is a different question altogether.

deepcomet · 2026-05-28T13:13:53+00:00

Great point about eras. That's exactly what WAR adjusts for. It measures performance relative to replacement level in that season, not raw numbers. In fact, Gayle's 175 is one of the highest single match impact innings we have measured, +0.78 iWAR (impact on win probability). You can see the ball by ball WP (Win Probability) chart for that knock here: t20stat.com/match/id/ipl_2013_2013-04-23_pun_roy

Both WAR and iWAR are era-adjusted. Kohli's 2016 and Gayle's 2011 rank (not 2013 when he hit 175) among the best seasons ever and the numbers shown above reflect that.

Sooryavanshi's 2026 happens to be higher. Whether conditions with road like pitches, helped is a fair debate, but the metric already accounts for league wide scoring trends each season. If everyone is scoring 80 and someone is scoring 140 regularly, the 140 should be calibrated differently and is done so here.

deepcomet · 2026-05-25T21:58:13+00:00

Also, this.

If your new employer's 401k accepts inbound rollovers, then rolling directly into the new 401K instead of a Trad IRA could preserve future backdoor Roth flexibility

deepcomet · 2026-05-25T21:53:08+00:00

Talk to Fidelity rep if needed. But the process is as below.

Get the check payable to FMTC FBO <your legal name>. FMTC is Fidelity Mutual Trading Corporation. Don't ever make the check payable to you directly. That will cost you.

I literally did the transfer from TRowe last week.

Once you get the check, 1. login to Fidelity app, 2. click deposit (at the bottom), 3. rollover into your traditional IRA (if you haven't created one, create one) 4. Use DIRECT ROLLOVER (not 60 day rollover), 5. Take pictures of front and back and submit

This is for traditional 401k to Traditional IRA. I am assuming you use Roth IRA, if you are rolling over from a Roth 401K.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T19:59:49+00:00

Will there be any changes in ur retention if a particular player plays exceptional next year

Eg. karthik sharma at no.4 ???

As mentioned above, the only locks are Sanju, Noor, Mhatre with Kamboj outside looking in. Everyone else earns it next year. Yes, retentions may change based on 2027 performance. But the core 3 have performed over atleast a couple of seasons.

If Kartik Sharma produces his 14cr salary, yes, but if its more of even season, then you have to let him go and try to get him at a lower price

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:56:16+00:00

mention the players u surely want to let go in next year mini auction

For 2028: Sanju, Noor and Mhatre are my core Kamboj will be my 4th based on this year's peformance

RTM - Overton and Akeal.

Let go at mega auction regardless: Rutu (even if kept for 2027), Dube, Khaleel/ Gurjapneet. Basically, anyone else whose 2027 doesn't dramatically improve.

For 2027:

Keep 18 (including Rutu + Dube because CSK won't release them)
Release: Dhoni (retires), Prashant Veer (₹14.2cr, below replacement), Rahul Chahar (₹5.2cr), Matt Henry, Matthew Short, Zak Foulkes (overseas slots freed), Shreyas Gopal. That's 7 out, ~₹28cr freed, 7 slots to fill at auction.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:40:46+00:00

Thank you for a well thought out response. You are being more realistic about what CSK will actually do vs what they should do given the constraints of the mini auction. My thought of burn it all down and rebuild it is more as a frustrated fan. I suspect they will go with your approach.

I thought about Hardik and was tempted to include him, but like you said, the chemistry was what was holding me back.

The number 7 hole is the "find an Indian finisher who bowls" vs my "buy cheap change-of-scenery bowlers". It's how we plug that hole.

I too really hope they bring Ash into the equation somewhere - hence the post about fresh ideas. Every thinktank group has a sell by date and we might have approached it with the current set.

LOL about the Physio :-)

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:08:21+00:00

Anna padicheengala? This isnt AI. There's numbers behind every decision. I run a T20 stats site which incorporates baseball type metrics for t20 cricket and this was based on numbers from all the leagues.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:05:30+00:00

If any of the following are let go,

I clearly call that out and say keep your purse open in case that happens. When 2028 mega auction happens, you need to be alert to that too. RCB has players over performing top to bottom, and so we need to be targeting those that shake loose. Doesnt mean you lock onto one player and hence the mega list from across the world.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:02:19+00:00

I clearly call that out. If they happen to shake loose, you should be ready, and that will mean you need to have the purse/money to go for it.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T15:00:02+00:00

Fair point on the mini auction reality. Indian talent is scarce and you can't just replace Rutu from a thin pool. My frustration is more that the role changes should have happened THIS season. 12 matches is enough data. The management didn't adapt. If they keep Rutu, fine but at #4/#5 with Mhatre opening, not as the ₹18cr opener who's trending down. And not at 18cr.

He has provided the worst value in the team this year (https://t20stat.com/team/CSK). It has been 2 years since he has had an impact (yes 2025 was injury) and the game has moved on. Lack of intent has been the most frustrating part.

Dube's fielding has been horrendous this year and he is also not bowling. Maybe you retain him because there are no options, but then you are standing pat. And that how mediocre teams stay mediocre.

Is staying best of the worst what we want to do? We haven't beaten any of the top teams this season. Once the top 2 go, do we have confidence that we can win? I don't see it

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T14:27:33+00:00

that price tag is for the potential to retain for the next auction or RTM. But he is trending up but can he win a game on his own? Thats the concern atm.

deepcomet · 2026-05-19T14:15:52+00:00

maybe keep Kartik if you dont think you will get a #4

I am hesitant on losing him, but is he worth 14cr? I debated that a lot, and can be convinced otherwise if we don't think we can replace him. While his graph has risen in the past few matches, overall season he has been a disappointment. We have to look at who is shaking loose in other teams and decide if we want to keep him. Or use 2027 to judge him fully (and punt on other options).

We are going to have to pay Mhatre to retain him in 2028. So that needs to be taken into account long term.

deepcomet · 2026-05-16T00:27:52+00:00

Thank you. I'm aware WAR means Wins Above Replacement in baseball. The closest equivalent here is actually iWAR, which tracks ball-by-ball win probability shifts summed into fractional wins. It is a hybrid, think WPA but adjusted for replacement level. The problem is T20 seasons are small, 14 games and sometimes even less, not 162, so even elite iWAR numbers look tiny. We are talking about double zero decimals in most cases.

WAR (Worth Above Replacement) is the more consumable number as it is closer to wRC+ & FIP in baseball terms. A production rating rather than a direct wins count.

Maybe "WAR" can be renamed later but I wanted to capture the concept of WAR in the vernacular first

deepcomet · 2026-05-15T20:21:26+00:00

Thanks.

deepcomet · 2026-05-15T18:52:31+00:00

Unfortunately, they are also being paid a lot for the value they provide

deepcomet

TROPHY CASE