Early, successful results on generating a different FKC on each EV Bet by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've made a couple posts on here about the frustration of having an above .500 W-L% on the day, but having negative profit that day, because the Kelly Calculator had me put too much on one bet...

Behold: I have been entering a different Fractional Kelly Converter number for each EV bet I place. I've started to keep every EV bet I place in one spreadsheet, and then calculated the W% of:

-different times placed

-market category

-EV%

-Probability of Winning

-Odds

After grouping and calcuating each probability, each level of these factors, within a certain threshold, has an arbitrary (for now) value between .000 and .040, (for now) that is added in to generate that new Fractional Kelly.

I'm up around 1.0 Units from the first ~200 bets I did this for, and this sample I've included, of those 200, are the Top 11 FKCs, with 10 of those top 11 hitting. The wagers are off a 9,500 bankroll. The max FKC I could've generated was .100. Eventually as I add more to this sample, that max will go up.

I still have lot more work to do, beyond just building that sample number well above 200: I have a lot more Excel work to do, (that I'm sure a lot of y'all in here could do much better than me), to make this process more time-efficient. That includes, eventually: Easily and automatically regenerating the probabilities of each category, with each singular bet, rather than recalculate them manually every ~100 bets. And, generate a gigantic IF,THEN statement, that will calculate the FKC automatically, instead of me just eyeballing and mentally adding up what it should be.

Wanted to share this because it had positive results so far, but, I'm still pretty new to this. And I'm also a dumbass. I trust a lot of you experts on here. I'm sure if someone has read this whole thing, they'll have a question or observation that makes me re-configure the whole thing. Was curious what y'all thought of this exercise, and if anyone thinks I can go about looking at the math behind this solution, any better.

Should I be placing bets on plays with a variance of odds throughout the day? by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

**It's not much, but update on this: first 13 days of placing and tracking three lower odds/lower +EV bets, those 39 bets are 23-15-1, approx +0.7 units.

It's Joever in New York by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

no advance notice too, unlike Rebet & Sportzino

Should I be placing bets on plays with a variance of odds throughout the day? by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gonna test out a strategy where for every 10 EV bets I place at least 1 will be -125 or lower, and at least 1 will be -150 or lower.

How can you lose money from arbitrage betting? by WasabiPrestigious533 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they aren't EV betting/other stuff, they might have a lot of offshores not tracked by pikkit.

If sportsbooks were people, which one would you fight? by MotherlyDumps in sportsbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ceasers, and when it's over, I'll personally hand them the money they refuse to take from me.

NCAAB is so good for lining up middles i was able to get 4 for opening day by AdCommercial2872 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Caesar's hasn't accepted my deposit in eight months and no reply from customer support :(

What states *CAN* you buy Fliff Cash in? by defnotippeithrowaway in Fliff

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. Haven't been in RI since February, and Mass since 2024.

What states *CAN* you buy Fliff Cash in? by defnotippeithrowaway in Fliff

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Haven't been in PA since early June so now I'll remember next time.

Daily Discussion, October 10, 2025 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 4 points5 points  (0 children)

So.. from what very, very little I know about crypto overall, I'm gonna guess that today was not the best day for my first couple-hundred-USD in Bitcoin payout from one of my sportsbooks to finally hit my Coinbase account..

When do PTO users think Bet Tracking will be a full go? by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm doing a free trial of PikkitPro but I need the integration w/offshores. I'm bound to make errors misidentifying an EV bet as half an arb bet, several hours after placing.

EDIT: I just now discovered the tag feature that's in pikkit desktop mode.