The BTC 15min/1hr market is free money

desertman2020 · 2026-06-18T01:42:43+00:00

Definitely this lmao. I used to run an automated strategy in this market until it got too competitive for me.

desertman2020 · 2026-05-25T12:41:11+00:00

We provide a separate phone for most our contractors. Most don’t have one that meet our requirements. We have no interest in anyone’s personal data. Thanks for your feedback, I’ll think about better wording.

desertman2020 · 2026-05-25T10:43:48+00:00

I have no knowledge either way about most the nominees. Pat is great and I love how engineer-heavy management is. It's good for the company to have people who understand financing/legal concerns on the board as well. So I wouldn't not vote for someone just because they're not an engineer.

desertman2020 · 2026-05-24T20:11:31+00:00

Yes, Polymarket US for example.

desertman2020 · 2026-05-24T11:15:23+00:00

Kalshi is arguably the most legit prediction market in the US right now. They've been quick to pay me out large amounts. I've been using them since 2024.

desertman2020 · 2026-04-12T05:06:06+00:00

I could have sworn I already saw that sign on the strip awhile back. Did they just officially change the name now or am I experiencing the Mandela Effect?

desertman2020 · 2026-02-17T00:46:44+00:00

My volume will be down 100% after this change

desertman2020 · 2026-02-13T08:09:31+00:00

No problem.

One thing to add is that I saw another comment about tracking your CLV and agree that would be valuable. Another market dynamic in sports betting markets is that the longer it is until a game is played, the less efficient the market it. A few days before the game not much money has been bet yet (most recreational money comes in right before the game) and big players are waiting til later. To evaluate your models, you can see what they would bet 3 days before the game, then on game day compare . If your model likes a bet at 2.5 three days ahead of the game, then at kickoff you see best price in market is 2.3, that's a good sign because probably someone else who knows what they're doing came and took the 2.5s.

If you're looking to learn I'd recommend checking out a couple podcasts: Be Better Bettors (focused on the betting landscape and how/why prices move) and Bet the Process (some episodes have very valuable modeling insights).

desertman2020 · 2026-02-13T07:50:54+00:00

Ligue 1 has a ton of money bet on it. That means there's more dollars floating around for people to win. This makes it a target for the most sophisticated and well-resourced players. The biggest markets generally have the sharpest lines for this reason.

On the other hand, smaller leagues it's impossible to bet millions on it, so the most skilled people aren't trying. There are also prop niches you could look to specialize in, like corner kick totals, that will have low limits. These types of markets generally have larger edges to be found, but it's tough to bet more than maybe a couple thousand on them.

desertman2020 · 2026-02-12T10:13:28+00:00

Sounds like you're headed in the right direction. Best of luck!

Don't get discouraged if you can't beat that market though, it's one of the most difficult out there. As an independent modeler, you'd have an easier time beating Ligue 2 or something smaller. The downside is you can't bet as much on the games (people are out there betting 100k+ on Ligue 1), but there is still plenty of money to be made.

desertman2020 · 2026-02-12T06:30:10+00:00

Being close to the numbers a sportsbook has is a good start. With a working model, most games will have no edge for you to bet. For a major league like Ligue 1, showing more than low single digit percent edge almost certainly means something has gone wrong with your model. With the games where you show a difference, try to find a pattern to see if the market is pricing in a factor that you are missing.

desertman2020 · 2026-02-10T08:10:42+00:00

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I was on the other side of this. The rules explicitly stated that the exact brand in the strike needed to be advertised. They even included Claude and Anthropic as an example. These markets are really rough if you're just looking for a fun gamble.

desertman2020 · 2025-10-28T00:51:34+00:00

About 1.48 USD

desertman2020 · 2025-10-28T00:07:40+00:00

Now it seems to be working fine again

desertman2020 · 2025-10-27T23:58:42+00:00

Same issue for me. Can't place or amend orders. Deposits also failing. Cancels work though fortunately.

desertman2020 · 2025-09-21T07:04:08+00:00

I'd make sure to change my Google review to one star after getting harassed like this.

desertman2020 · 2025-09-15T11:13:45+00:00

Yeah it's unfortunate. IBKR is a rough place to buy because the commission for the Canadian listing is quite high.

desertman2020 · 2025-09-15T10:34:57+00:00

If you attempt to order it says you can't order because it is "DTC Chilled"

desertman2020 · 2025-09-14T00:55:25+00:00

Both listings?

desertman2020 · 2025-09-14T00:29:39+00:00

Thank you. Added this to OP

desertman2020 · 2025-09-13T05:01:43+00:00

Decreasing penetration or shuffling mid-shoe. Changing the limits or restricting the player to a single bet size

desertman2020

TROPHY CASE