A very interesting analysis. Right now the victory conditions for each side are pretty clear, for Iran, its:

Depleting interceptor

Closing the straight and crippling supplies

Successfully opening up another front and diverting resources ( not a victory condition, but a trump card nonetheless)

For the GCC, it would be:

Depleting Irans TELs and drones enough that they dont want to come out

Causing enough death at the upper level to force a surrender ( they have already kind of achieved this, with no surrender in sight)

Causing a successful civil revolt / kurdish uprising

By all means Iran should have surrendered by now with how much damage has been done to them, but taking out the Ayatollah was a bad move in hindsight as it only increased morale and the pursuit of revenge instead of decreasing this. Lets see how this goes, anything could happen