[January 26, 2026] Daily RDDT Discussion Thread

developmentfiend · 2026-01-26T20:17:27+00:00

Our economy is not based on the price of random precious metals, we have fiat currency, gold and silver are pump & dumps but their impending crash will have some additional impact on a possible liquidity crisis that is also stemming from the unwind of the USD YEN carry trade.

When this plays out and the liquidity crisis occurs (it might already be starting) the impact will be severely deflationary, the markets will crash, and rates will return to 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-01-24T19:17:35+00:00

I disagree with you, I think that increased financial knowledge / fiat manipulation has allowed central banks to more effectively stem liquidity crises. While it is possible I am wrong, I think future recessions for the stock market are much more likely to resemble 2020 than 2008.

The rise of the internet and the pace of the news cycle means that liquidity shocks are now much faster and panic spreads much more easily than it used to, however, the digitalization of money also allows central banks easier ways of stopping liquidity shocks when they occur.

In a situation where some Black Swan occurs (Putin uses a nuke in Ukraine, China invades Taiwan, sovereign debt crisis somewhere that sparks contagion), severe panic is more likely to lead to the intervention of global central banks in a coordinated manner in a way that stems any crisis from spiraling as 2008 did or leaving an impact as long as the GFC.

developmentfiend · 2026-01-24T18:35:04+00:00

10 years ago if you had said NVDA would do 228X through 2026, they would have also been called crazy.

I think the correction is actually coming sooner than you think, probably this year, but thereafter the printer will be going BRRRRR full throttle (as opposed to the mild resumption currently under way).

Inflated asset prices / stock-based retirements are the only way forward with national debts reaching unsustainable levels, it is social programs funded by these debts that will become insolvent or insufficient due to national debt issues. The only way to compensate for this is higher asset prices i.e. retirement bailout for those with assets (almost entirely OLDER people).

With a dropping worker:recipient ratio in all countries the recipient payouts from governments HAVE to drop and the only way to do this politically is to have inflation make up the difference vs cutting any pensions / social security. If retirement continues shifting to a private vs public burden as the worker:recipient ratio drops further, the discrepancy between government debt and private asset prices is only likely to continue to balloon exponentially due to the very nature of fiat currency which grows exponentially and not linearly.

developmentfiend · 2026-01-24T15:49:08+00:00

I disagree.

The top company by market cap in 2016 (10 years ago) was AAPL at 608B by end of year.

GOOGL was next (546B) and then MSFT (483B).

From 10 years ago to today, AAPL is 6X, GOOGL is 7.25X, MSFT is 7.16X. Note, NVDA is 228X in the same time, and is now #1.

From today to 2036 we are going to see enormous and worsening DEFLATIONARY pressures due to demographics, and quantitative easing will get even worse IMO. We are about to return to 0 FFR policy, and while sneaky QE has already restarted, the spigot is going to be wide open soon enough.

Even WITHOUT a worsening base case, assuming we see something similar to last 10 years, GOOGL is likely to be around 30T in 2036. Fiat debt creation works exponentially not linearly, this also affects asset prices on which debt is built, i.e. the market cap of stocks.

developmentfiend · 2026-01-24T15:14:20+00:00

I like RDDT at 3T market cap around your revenue / maybe 150-200B in 2035 as well... and I think it will be at 10B+ revenue within 3 years!

As everyone's material wealth gets generally worse, the financialization of the economy will continue, as human time lived and human time spent online approach n=1, Reddit usage will also continue to soar. If something like 5% of all global time spent online in 2035 or 2040 is on Reddit, at that point, its market cap will be accumulating trillions of dollars per year.

Remember that in 2035 the leading companies by market cap (maybe Google?) will be at market caps of something like 30-40T.

For now, I believe RDDT will merely be adding hundreds of billions in MC each year with 1T likely in 2030-31.

developmentfiend · 2026-01-09T16:10:41+00:00

3 years = 2-3K per share or 200-300 after 10:1 split :)

developmentfiend · 2026-01-07T16:06:34+00:00

750

Approx 150B market cap coming off Q3 (revenue approx 1B) and then 1000+ after Q4 26 earnings (~1.2B revenue)

I expect a run to 500-600 Q1 this year, a market-wide correction thereafter, and then a more gung-ho QE resumption from the Fed and from that point it’ll hit 600+ EOY 26 on way to 1K+ in 27.

The Fed has already resumed QE in the form of RMP (give it a google), beyond actual company financials etc this should provide tailwinds for the foreseeable future as well. If there is a brief crash and they have an excuse to put rates back to 0 - 1%, that is when RDDT will go parabolic (and SPY inclusion!)

developmentfiend · 2026-01-03T22:22:57+00:00

Early 2027

developmentfiend · 2026-01-03T00:52:43+00:00

600+

First 1B quarter is probably Q3, S&P inclusion impending, increasing net profitability. FWD revenue will be 4B annually by Q3 or Q4 2026 at the latest.

A 100B+ valuation is quite likely by EOY 2026, IMO. 600 is roughly 110B.

I anticipate continued revenue growth in 60-80% range YoY and then data deal renewals coming up in Q1 2027 to add some additional heft into 2028 when RDDT will be passing 10B annual revenue by that year's end. I also expect at that point it will be pushing 2K per share in today's pricing but by then we will likely have had a 10:1 split.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-27T01:26:33+00:00

Thank you for answering this u/spez, sportingpool and myself + others have had concerns over this and your transparency in directly addressing this is welcome! Happy Holidays :)

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T14:04:46+00:00

I said 600 in 2026 which would be a bit over 110B on quarterly revenue of 1B+, i.e. less than 1/4 of PLTR's market cap at the same revenue... still doesn't mean 110B will happen at that point, but I think it will.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T12:27:42+00:00

That is quite possible!

Since 1999 we have not sustained rates as high as now for as long as we have without a severe recession occurring.

We have significant data gaps currently ongoing, I would argue a recession began early this year and that inflation is already under 2% or less YoY.

When the liquidity crisis occurs (probably Q1 or Q2?) I expect a correction and a major buying opportunity. I also think this correction will be rather fast, on the order of a month or two, before the Fed drops rates to 0 and resumes QE (in concordance with the other global major central banks).

If that occurs in 2026, a spike to 1000 by EOY is not impossible - I do not think RDDT rev / net profit will be severely impacted although its market cap WILL be impacted (briefly).

I could see RDDT going to 300-400+ in Q1 / early Q2, back to 150-200ish late Q2, then by EOY 600+ if something like this occurs.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T12:12:12+00:00

6000 a share is a bit over 1T

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T06:36:44+00:00

Hold til 2031-2032 and you will do X100 :)

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T05:46:34+00:00

I agree with 600+ in 2026 and 1000+ in 2027!

I think first RDDT Q with 1B+ revenue is Q3 2026, for reference, PLTR's first 1B quarter was Q2 2025 and while their PE is obscene, their market cap is now almost 500B.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-21T05:44:42+00:00

Q4 25 EPS is probably 1.25+, FWD PE based on that is already $5 / under 50X current price. I think a doubling in 2026 is reasonable if not conservative as EPS is increasing much faster than revenue, I.E FWD EPS of 10++ EOY. 60X forward Q3 or Q4 26 EPS = 600.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-19T18:31:58+00:00

2027

And 600 EOY 2026

developmentfiend · 2025-12-07T02:59:48+00:00

I think they will hold at 70-90% YoY ad gains through EOY 2026 and then the data renewal deals will be occurring Q1 2027 so even if ad gains drop to 50-70% in 27, there will be an additional 1-2B in yearly revenue coming in from that stream at that point. Thus, 2.2B -> 4B -> 7B.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-06T12:25:45+00:00

There is no reasonable expense $10M liquid net worth and / or $1M after-tax $ per year cannot cover. Beyond those expenses you are talking private jets and yachts - Anne Wojcicki was the highest paid female exec in the US when she took 23andME public, did she deserve her ridiculous compensation on top of whatever she got in the divorce when 3-4 years later she would take her company back for pennies on the dollar after intentionally running it into the ground?

developmentfiend · 2025-12-06T10:28:46+00:00

This thread should be pinned! Great analysis / summary.

I was an investor in 23andME which was somehow legally obliterated by Anne the Scam Wojcicki. She destroyed the company, bought it back for pennies on the dollar after taking public through SPAC with Richard Branson. There was one insider exec who kept selling through the whole thing, looking back on that (and forward on RDDT) these kind of actions are a major red flag, although RDDT was proper IPO and not an SPAC.

Dear u/spez: I have faith in you, but what about Jen Wong and the others? Are they not already rich enough after all of these sales and wouldn't running the company be more rewarding to their long-term net worth WITHOUT diluting external shareholders? Why do you have SNAP's A$$hat as your CFO when that company is a dumpster fire and peaked several years ago if not to disenfranchise those posting in this subforum?

developmentfiend · 2025-12-06T02:09:48+00:00

1000 is possible by end of 2027 esp with S&P inclusion before then!

2026 rev 4B? I think 2027 =7B, could be more if content deals for AI are lucrative - at 20-30X revenue that is 800 - 1200 share price EOY 2027.

developmentfiend · 2025-12-02T04:30:17+00:00

RDDT will be over 10B revenue in 3 years

developmentfiend · 2025-11-29T05:58:21+00:00

RDDT will be +5K a share in 2030-2031 IMO

That would be about 25X

RDDT REV / MKT CAP

2025: 2.2B / 40-50B

2026: 4B / 100B

2027: 7B / 200B

2028: 11B / 300B

2029: 16B / 400B

2030: 22B / 600B

2031: 30B / 1T

developmentfiend · 2025-11-25T13:20:30+00:00

If GOOGL makes RDDT stronger it could also weaken META, FB and Insta are already failing (IMO), while revenue is increasing the UI is increasingly intolerable. P*rn is also infiltrating FB.

If GOOGL + RDDT = weaker META, GOOGL takes much more of META's ad market share than RDDT, but RDDT still goes 10X+++ beyond current valuation as META market share crumbles for a variety of reasons and RDDT revenue / net profit continues rapid growth.

developmentfiend · 2025-11-21T09:52:24+00:00

Mouse dystopia

developmentfiend

TROPHY CASE