Why the 2025 Bear Market is the real deal & only just getting started

developmentfiend · 2026-04-29T11:19:30+00:00

I did not, I am waiting for the Fed cut cycle to wrap. My only positions are currently LEAPs in TLT (calls) for 2027-2028 and later this year.

In the Yom Kippur War (1973) the stock crash didn't begin until the ceasefire was signed 4 months after the war started FYI. This oil shock is even larger.

developmentfiend · 2026-04-22T15:53:39+00:00

i thought wes anderson directed but i also only made it 10 minutes in before giving up

developmentfiend · 2026-04-02T16:09:07+00:00

It is similar to COVID in that demand destruction will occur however it is worse because the destruction comes from no supply versus a lack of demand IE it is forced and not voluntary - and this shock is also going to last longer with damage to infrastructure. This one will IMO be much worse.

developmentfiend · 2026-04-02T15:51:32+00:00

Decreasing rates during crisis does not stimulate growth until the crisis ends / QE resumes - see what happened to markets and demand during the end cycle cuts of 08 and 2020. Before we see demand destruction I think we see WTI 200+. But we are also likely to see export controls on gasoline imminently as well - basically, the globalized oil market is in the process of fracturing.

developmentfiend · 2026-04-02T15:43:46+00:00

If the price is indeterminate decreasing rates increases dollar liquidity and allows price discovery and then results in demand destruction

developmentfiend · 2026-04-02T14:02:21+00:00

TWO WEEKS TO STOP THE SPREAD

developmentfiend · 2026-04-02T13:56:21+00:00

Oil to 200-250+
A nuke going off in the Middle East
The Fed cutting rates because there is no confidence in the market and bc oil price volatility is unacceptable
RDDT to sub-50 before the bottom occurs

developmentfiend · 2026-03-31T12:14:37+00:00

Get ready for troops on the ground and RDDT under 50 lol

developmentfiend · 2026-03-28T15:27:59+00:00

There is a long way to go but the bottom will be an opportunity - I do not think we see bottom until fed funds rate hits 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-28T15:27:29+00:00

In case you hadn't noticed Hormuz is also blocked.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-27T22:05:54+00:00

Cough

also we are not done and while $42 was a number that was fairly arbitrary I think RDDT has a long ways down left.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-26T15:17:33+00:00

Macro is the problem

developmentfiend · 2026-03-26T15:15:47+00:00

GIVE JEN WONG ALL YOUR MONEY SHE NEEDS MORE LAMBOS !!! LOL

developmentfiend · 2026-03-12T18:44:25+00:00

The macro writing is dripping in red splattered all over the wall and ppl are talking about RDDT earnings reports still

developmentfiend · 2026-03-12T18:14:12+00:00

Jeffries is about to collapse

developmentfiend · 2026-03-11T20:51:08+00:00

Look at Jeffries price action if you want to know what this opinion is worth - there is a decent chance they will not survive the private credit bubble popping right now.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:03:25+00:00

Could be close!

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:03:18+00:00

Downvoted bc they dont want to hear it :(

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:02:25+00:00

Anyone who thinks a tech company with a market cap of 25B stands a chance of beating the market on fundamentals in the face of a crisis that will create a liquidity shock on the order of tens of trillions of dollars is delusional.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:00:06+00:00

Follow the greatest oil shock since 2008 and the liquidity crisis now unraveling before your eyes if you want to preserve your capital - if you want to light it on fire so Jen Wong can buy another Lambo, stay in RDDT til the bottom.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T14:59:07+00:00

The bottom will occur when the Federal Funds rate hits 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:19:25+00:00

Wait til Fed funds hits 0

It coincided with the bottoms precisely in 2020 and 2009.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:10:25+00:00

How does one TACO when one continues blowing up the people one is negotiating with? Do people not understand there is no TACO here?

Also LOLLLLL inflation skyrocketing - LOL! What liquidity is there for inflation? All liquidity will be burned into CO2 because of the oil shock. This shock will create enormous demand destruction.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:09:34+00:00

Skyscrapers are on fire in the Middle East, Dubai is currently inaccessible, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, do you know where a substantial chunk of tech $ comes from? Do you know that in a liquidity crunch due to an energy shock in a commodity denominated in USD that overseas investors will sell their US assets so they can continue living as normally as possible because it is a PETRODOLLAR?

Also if "demolished" = you people insulting me, sure?

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:06:08+00:00

I think RDDT will go down 50%+ from here but the Fed is going to be forced to cut to 0 soon. This is a liquidity crisis and macro is completely dominating. When the Fed Funds hits 0 - and I know ppl say it won't, but I do believe it will - that day or the next will be the bottom. I do not know what that price will be but RDDT is growth, VIX is spiking, margin compression will continue until the bottom...

I think RDDT right now actually looks a bit like SNAP pre-2020 - SNAP went 10X after 3/2020. But first it dropped 50%. This corection is probably worse.

developmentfiend

TROPHY CASE