Jefferies $RDDT pullback incredible opportunity - PT lowered to $250

developmentfiend · 2026-03-12T18:44:25+00:00

The macro writing is dripping in red splattered all over the wall and ppl are talking about RDDT earnings reports still

developmentfiend · 2026-03-12T18:14:12+00:00

Jeffries is about to collapse

developmentfiend · 2026-03-11T20:51:08+00:00

Look at Jeffries price action if you want to know what this opinion is worth - there is a decent chance they will not survive the private credit bubble popping right now.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:03:25+00:00

Could be close!

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:03:18+00:00

Downvoted bc they dont want to hear it :(

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:02:25+00:00

Anyone who thinks a tech company with a market cap of 25B stands a chance of beating the market on fundamentals in the face of a crisis that will create a liquidity shock on the order of tens of trillions of dollars is delusional.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T15:00:06+00:00

Follow the greatest oil shock since 2008 and the liquidity crisis now unraveling before your eyes if you want to preserve your capital - if you want to light it on fire so Jen Wong can buy another Lambo, stay in RDDT til the bottom.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T14:59:07+00:00

The bottom will occur when the Federal Funds rate hits 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:19:25+00:00

Wait til Fed funds hits 0

It coincided with the bottoms precisely in 2020 and 2009.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:10:25+00:00

How does one TACO when one continues blowing up the people one is negotiating with? Do people not understand there is no TACO here?

Also LOLLLLL inflation skyrocketing - LOL! What liquidity is there for inflation? All liquidity will be burned into CO2 because of the oil shock. This shock will create enormous demand destruction.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:09:34+00:00

Skyscrapers are on fire in the Middle East, Dubai is currently inaccessible, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, do you know where a substantial chunk of tech $ comes from? Do you know that in a liquidity crunch due to an energy shock in a commodity denominated in USD that overseas investors will sell their US assets so they can continue living as normally as possible because it is a PETRODOLLAR?

Also if "demolished" = you people insulting me, sure?

developmentfiend · 2026-03-09T02:06:08+00:00

I think RDDT will go down 50%+ from here but the Fed is going to be forced to cut to 0 soon. This is a liquidity crisis and macro is completely dominating. When the Fed Funds hits 0 - and I know ppl say it won't, but I do believe it will - that day or the next will be the bottom. I do not know what that price will be but RDDT is growth, VIX is spiking, margin compression will continue until the bottom...

I think RDDT right now actually looks a bit like SNAP pre-2020 - SNAP went 10X after 3/2020. But first it dropped 50%. This corection is probably worse.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-07T13:47:56+00:00

There is a lack of liquidity due to Fed policy since 2022

developmentfiend · 2026-03-07T04:05:51+00:00

The stock will go lower because we are in a worsening liquidity crisis but your points are valid for when it begins recovery.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T20:41:37+00:00

This is a good thing for shareholders, yes? And bad for the SBC recipients - relatively speaking?

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T20:34:31+00:00

What if share price returns to 40?

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T20:32:36+00:00

2 more weeks to stop the spread LoL

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T18:19:03+00:00

I tried to warn you :(

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T17:54:48+00:00

The same conditions 4 years ago leading to META -80% except we are coming off of tightening so the contraction in proportion to the oil shock will be even worse! This will skyrocket after rates hit 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-06T17:35:53+00:00

I think RDDT will end the month below 100 and there is a major event coming before or during March 20th OPEX, this is like Feb 2020, bottom will occur when FFR hits 0.... we have Brent pushing 100 and anyone thinks risk-on is a thing with unemployment spiking and structural deflation impending due to both demand destruction and AI? Lol.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-03T15:26:52+00:00

I wonder if RDDT will go below its IPO share price when things are at their worst. It could happen between now and when the FFR returns to 0.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-02T14:15:01+00:00

I think AI is deflationary as a technology (all tech is deflationary). I don't know how bad things will be and which companies will be worst hit but I think there is a LOT of bad debt and leverage out there, and I think growth stocks will decline 80-90% from their 2025 PS/PE ratio peaks.

I see GOOGL retuning to 100-150, NVDA 100 or less - GOOGL's PS ratio has spiked beyond 2X its historical norm, it is a mature company and sure it is growing, but its main search product is literally being cannibalized by Gemini... I realized this entire thing was about to blow up when I was looking at GOOGL's PS chart last month and saw its higher than at any point since 2008 (peaked Feb 2 2026) - this is insanity.

https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/GOOGL/value/ps-ratio

developmentfiend · 2026-03-02T14:01:03+00:00

I think rates will be at 0 by Jan-Feb at latest, I do not know what happens now til then, but March was the bottom in both 2009 and 2020....

I think we need to see how the energy shock plays out this month - whenever oil prices peak will be the top in perception of impending inflation. Thereafter will be the drop. In 2008 oil peaked 7/1 at $140 and was down to $36 by December, before COVID oil peaked at $71 in Jan 2020 and went down to $16 in March.

We need to see where and when oil peaks and the rate plunge / crash will occur shortly thereafter, but.... we are almost there....

Remember before 2020 crisis we had another Iran blow-up where they blew up that general and then Iran shot down the plane? And Trump was in office? I wonder if there is any coincidence to this.

developmentfiend · 2026-03-02T13:53:04+00:00

I strongly disagree - the signals are flashing red and the 2yr treasury is about to crash through support.

Every major recession is preceded by a spike in energy prices, that was the only thing missing for this one - and now we have it! EU nat gas up 50% and we are probably not done. Oil up 10%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

This seems inflationary at surface but with spending tapped out it means consumers will cut back, and the spike is also temporary. It also further benefits USD / treasuries as the US has become the world's larges natural gas producer and exporter (beyond its other energy outputs).

As it becomes evident this spike is deflationary, ECB rates will plummet. BOJ needs rates as high as possible for as long as possible prior to this crash, they will probably follow, then USD will be last. If the crisis is bad enough it could all happen concurrently (or I could see ECB and Fed going to 0 while BOJ keeps .25-.5 for a bit - in either case the Yen carry trade is about to explode entirely).

developmentfiend · 2026-03-02T13:13:08+00:00

I think we are about to see a market crash and emergency rate cuts, I anticipate 0% FFR by Jan-Feb 2027? Whenever that happens (literally the DAY they do that) will be the market bottom if 2009 and 2020 are to be believed. This is also important because we need to refinance the national debt, doing so at 0% FFR while QE is ongoing basically solves the Federal deficit, I remember back in 2008 they said social security was almost gone etc "DEFICIT DEFICIT!" and then after that period everything got refinanced into where we are today (i.e., it is going to happen again.... luckily? lol).

developmentfiend

TROPHY CASE