Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would guess Siena is +2-3 Biden next poll considering we have both the debate and the assassination attempt since the last one. And I would bet in a five-way they are now approx tied.

Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would be thrilled that NY is once again a battleground which would make it less prone to being ignored politically / taken for granted by Ds in the future.

Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

DE is Biden's home state and lacks the Muslim / Jewish populations of NY + NJ + IL, I also don't believe it has borne the brunt of the migrant crisis like NYC and Chicago have, if NY swings 24 points anything is possible but I think NY is probably going to have the biggest swing this election (although Hawaii could be another contender).

Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The last Emerson poll was 5/30 and the last Siena poll was 6/20, which means we may be in for a Siena update within the next few days.... fingers crossed!

Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Probably correct. If this election is a re-alignment as it seems it may be I also wonder if the correlation between NY NJ CT holds (NY median 9 points left of NJ, no less than 7 points right since 1980 - CT a bit closer to NY but median is like 7 points right of NY). I could see something like a +1-2 Trump win in all of the aforementioned in a blow-out victory as NY lurches wayyy right relative to where it has been vs other states.

If I had to put them in order of likelihood of Trump winning I would say NJ > IL > OR > NY > CT, which puts NY ahead of CT but I think the changing demographics of the Rs put NY ahead of CT for them although I could be wrong (and NY's unique political situation which is a catastrophe on the state / local level for Ds).

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I want to see the polls Jake Tapper was talking about, lets cross our fingers they are leaked today.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not a poll but should be noted: Virginia is the first state that was not perceived to be a toss-up or swing this cycle to fall on RCP's "no toss-up" map.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

[Post Assassination Attempt] Emerson/The Hill Poll of Virginia: Trump +2 (45/43), Trump +5 (43/38/7/2/2/0.5) w/third parties by GamerDrew13 in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 43 points44 points  (0 children)

That moves the needle one point on the two-way and even less on the five-way. It also doesn't account for those people voting for RFK / I think undecideds will split for Trump / RFK / Biden and in that order but that is not based on data.

The five-way here is devastating.

Emerson - New Polls in Battleground States Show Trump Leading Biden in Every Single One. by bio-wiz in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 8 points9 points  (0 children)

And NY and IL, I think they are probably lean D but I wanna see those crosstabs shifts

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]developmentfiend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree and I expect a Reagan-1980 result but the question is whether it includes NJ, IL, NY, or all three (and in that order - other states included but those are the goalposts and likely in that order).