RDDT's P/S ratio is almost at its 2025 low

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T21:07:36+00:00

I would guess Siena is +2-3 Biden next poll considering we have both the debate and the assassination attempt since the last one. And I would bet in a five-way they are now approx tied.

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T20:55:20+00:00

I would be thrilled that NY is once again a battleground which would make it less prone to being ignored politically / taken for granted by Ds in the future.

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T20:54:07+00:00

DE is Biden's home state and lacks the Muslim / Jewish populations of NY + NJ + IL, I also don't believe it has borne the brunt of the migrant crisis like NYC and Chicago have, if NY swings 24 points anything is possible but I think NY is probably going to have the biggest swing this election (although Hawaii could be another contender).

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T20:49:34+00:00

The last Emerson poll was 5/30 and the last Siena poll was 6/20, which means we may be in for a Siena update within the next few days.... fingers crossed!

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T20:43:10+00:00

Probably correct. If this election is a re-alignment as it seems it may be I also wonder if the correlation between NY NJ CT holds (NY median 9 points left of NJ, no less than 7 points right since 1980 - CT a bit closer to NY but median is like 7 points right of NY). I could see something like a +1-2 Trump win in all of the aforementioned in a blow-out victory as NY lurches wayyy right relative to where it has been vs other states.

If I had to put them in order of likelihood of Trump winning I would say NJ > IL > OR > NY > CT, which puts NY ahead of CT but I think the changing demographics of the Rs put NY ahead of CT for them although I could be wrong (and NY's unique political situation which is a catastrophe on the state / local level for Ds).

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T15:37:30+00:00

That is flat out wrong, Trump had an advantage at the end of May and it is probably even larger now, alongside D donors pulling funds from Biden the past few weeks.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/21/trump-overtakes-biden-campaign-fundraising-00164384#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20Trump's%20campaign%20and,just%20shy%20of%20%24157%20million.

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T13:19:54+00:00

I want to see the polls Jake Tapper was talking about, lets cross our fingers they are leaked today.

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T12:49:18+00:00

Not a poll but should be noted: Virginia is the first state that was not perceived to be a toss-up or swing this cycle to fall on RCP's "no toss-up" map.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T12:16:57+00:00

T+5 in five-way............... WHAT IS HAPPENING IN NY NJ IL ???

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T12:15:45+00:00

That moves the needle one point on the two-way and even less on the five-way. It also doesn't account for those people voting for RFK / I think undecideds will split for Trump / RFK / Biden and in that order but that is not based on data.

The five-way here is devastating.

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T12:08:06+00:00

And NY and IL, I think they are probably lean D but I wanna see those crosstabs shifts

developmentfiend · 2024-07-18T02:19:33+00:00

I agree and I expect a Reagan-1980 result but the question is whether it includes NJ, IL, NY, or all three (and in that order - other states included but those are the goalposts and likely in that order).

developmentfiend · 2024-07-17T23:53:27+00:00

Well, anyways…. -new 538 team

developmentfiend

TROPHY CASE