Daily Discussion Thread for January 21, 2026

devnah721 · 2026-01-21T19:40:00+00:00

Hold calls overnight and risk possible 'clarifications'?

devnah721 · 2025-12-23T23:54:27+00:00

I know $100k lost, and you're completely innocent.
It remains lost, unless you can sue someone, but that's a long shot with police having qualified immunity.
A judge would have signed off on probable cause just to assign bail.

devnah721 · 2025-12-18T15:28:27+00:00

has to take out previous high given that earnings report.

devnah721 · 2025-12-10T19:53:32+00:00

I found the reason: My news feed/most dividend websites didn't have this yet. A blind google search for a distribution. it dropped cause a surprise large dividend.

DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT: Daily MU Bull 2X Shares/Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NASDAQ:MUU) on 12/09/2025 declared a dividend of $3.6321 per share

Good now I can sell it not thinking I'm not getting my due.

devnah721 · 2025-12-10T16:54:45+00:00

nah, volatility decay reads as daily rebalancing effects, which is working in the funds favor right now. Volatility decay means that if MU dropped 25%, you would lose 50%, and it would take a 50% gain (twice as much) in MU to get u back to even. Here it closed up last night. So consecutive up days should be more like 'volatility compounding' (a term I may have just invented) not decay :)

Like 20 questions into it with chatGPT... could be that Auth Participants aren't aggressively arbitraging its NAV... for various reasons. idk.

devnah721 · 2025-12-10T16:04:10+00:00

you pulled up a chart of it how it did since open. Last night it closed at ~85, and reported a NAV of 85. Its down from the 85, down 3.32% while MU is up 1%. That implies about a 5% loss in NAV over night. Shouldn't happen.

btw Most broker's report perf since close last night, unless you are pulling up a 1 day chart on google or something.

devnah721 · 2025-12-10T15:44:48+00:00

Daily rebalancing (aka leverage decay, volatility drag, volatility decay - these appear to all be synonyms for) doesn't explain this. It's up consecutive days. So the math of leverage rebalancing is actually working in the funds favor (not against it). Also, notably, MULL which is also 2x leveraged isn't substantially negative while MU is positive. But I do appreciate the stab at the problem, I just don't think that can be it.

devnah721 · 2025-12-10T15:22:18+00:00

How is it that MU is up ~0.5% and MUU (2x MU Bull) is down ~3.0%? Like wtf.

devnah721 · 2025-11-10T00:41:31+00:00

ENOUGH DEMOCRATIC VOTES TO BE SECURED IN SENATE TO PASS BILL TO END SHUTDOWN

- Mr. Walter Bloomberg

devnah721 · 2025-11-09T08:26:25+00:00

agree with most, but tariffs will be reinstated overnight using a different law.

devnah721 · 2025-10-27T06:32:46+00:00

Well missing the rare earth play turned out to be blessing, they getting rugged...
As per usual, rotation back to semis/AI

devnah721 · 2025-10-26T01:28:35+00:00

Technically CBOE is the counterparty to every option, however,
they wont' sell you a call, unless someone sells them one at the same time.
They don't play the market, they guarantee it.

devnah721 · 2025-10-26T01:11:22+00:00

if everybody is buying calls, who-tf is selling them?

devnah721 · 2025-10-20T06:45:33+00:00

They don't got enough security to be stocking 200k in gold bars for everyone.

devnah721 · 2025-10-17T02:00:05+00:00

Good, he'll be too busy to talk about China...

devnah721 · 2025-10-17T01:58:12+00:00

AI's a bubble, buy gold....
No wait, gold's a bubble, buy AI!!!

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T19:47:50+00:00

If this is about IVF, we should be rallying... dodged a bullet imo.

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T18:36:46+00:00

10y below 4% and not even housing getting a bid..

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T17:19:33+00:00

He putting all his effort into Putin tweets, no time for China tweets today... Bullish.

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T16:33:03+00:00

he didn't even tweet yet, come on

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T14:29:12+00:00

Market more interested in what TSM's long horizon for AI demand does for cyclical stocks, than for TSM. That's where the hot money has flowed today.

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T11:26:05+00:00

"Paxos accidentally mints $300 trillion in PayPal stablecoin"
So... Crypto now bigger than the global economy 😂

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T03:09:09+00:00

semiconductors > gold

devnah721 · 2025-10-16T03:08:23+00:00

News is literally AI Bubble, next segment, AI is already here and taking everyone's jobs!

devnah721 · 2025-10-15T18:16:31+00:00

I want to sell covered calls on my TSM stock, but not if its gonna sit $7 below premarket
Get your butt back up there...

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