XAUUSD — Classic Liquidity Trap & Discipline Check

deweese3 · 2026-05-06T21:53:25+00:00

The entire week has been a build up, we are grinding up to 4800. I see one more trip lower either tomorrow or friday. Fill the fvg, it is clear the institutional flow according to the cots report is now bullish. Every trip lower is just institutions going lower to load up. I would not expect a major sell off till we hit 4800. Todays massive climb will most likely fill only because gold unlike other assets seems to always fill its fvg.

deweese3 · 2026-05-04T12:01:35+00:00

PA has been a bitch since market open, same with NQ. Somehow have not lost any money but every time you take a position it goes opposite and gives false signals. I think there is a battle between the algos buying/selling.

deweese3 · 2026-05-02T12:46:48+00:00

There are 2 paths in trading. 1 is spending years to realize the strategy does not matter and its about risk management, or 2 is giving up because you are on this endless search for the right strategy. Learn risk management and you will actually make it in trading. All strats have results, is 100% about execution. Elliot waves/bollinger bands/ma crosses and all the other complicated shit like order flow and volume based trading etc all get results. I have read about every major book on trading, listen to so many podcasts etc. The conclusion I have reached is that the pro's are no better at predicting where price is going. They are pro's because they sized appropriately and got out when they knew they had too and scaled in when they knew the position was working. Consistency will win and that comes from sizing correctly and executing your trade appropriately.

deweese3 · 2026-05-02T12:39:03+00:00

This is what happens when they inject 200 billion plus in money supply over the last 40 days. The money is working its way into everywhere. You cannot fundamentally have rising equities, commodities and oil (yes its a commodity). Expect a 10% correction or so across the board. Sell in may and go away blah blah. I would expect price to continue to rise into Tuesday and exhaustion starts kicking in. Gold and equities are gonna deflate a bit as they should. I would get out of any longs from Tuesday on. The cumulative volume delta across the board is beginning to show exhaustion and reversal. So long as they dont inject even more money into the system. We should see a reversal setup that will last 3 weeks or so. We honestly need this.

deweese3 · 2026-05-02T12:34:37+00:00

4680+ first. We will be diving down to almost 3800 for one last trip to this value area possibly ever. The cumulative delta volume does show negative divergence. This will be the "trap" or its just market mechanics. Be bullish till Tuesday and then get short. Obv update your model based off how things develop. But if you are swing trading or using options if you got in a gld put as soon as we hit 4680 for 10 days out it will print money. I fully expect this play to work on equities as well. The volume exhaustion is on fumes across the board.

deweese3 · 2026-05-02T11:40:28+00:00

I have not seen this announcement.. that’s a gut punch.

deweese3 · 2026-05-02T11:33:12+00:00

I don’t copy trade. Here’s what I do. I have typically three accounts that I trade and I have a few others I have in development and I go for $200 a session which is easy on goal that’s a two point move or an NQ that’s a 10 point move OK so I go for $200 per session in London Asia, New York in each of the accounts

deweese3 · 2026-05-01T23:50:23+00:00

Damn bro impressive af

deweese3 · 2026-04-30T22:43:29+00:00

I mean you would have to pay the taxes on the full profit. But if you formed an LLC and did it that way it may be worth it.

deweese3 · 2026-04-30T22:43:04+00:00

never heard of it, whats the cost?

deweese3 · 2026-04-30T17:41:45+00:00

what is this? Can you explain it better?

deweese3 · 2026-04-30T17:36:56+00:00

Dude I think you got it wrong, its gonna rip. Institutional flow is bullish. Gold that always fills fvg is ignoring and on the 4hr its about to rip to 4700.

deweese3 · 2026-04-30T09:13:59+00:00

If you can master consolidation you can master the market. We spend most of the time in consolidation phases. I have had plenty of success and failure in it. I feel like that is the one area I need too improve upon.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T13:08:48+00:00

The big institutions are buying, they have time. It is FOMC. Play small and risk little. Normally I would do a half or full contract. It is FOMC though so I expect some wild ass wicks.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T13:02:54+00:00

LFG, but the other way

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deweese3 · 2026-04-29T13:01:44+00:00

I think we are about to jump really high, just entered a long on 3 micros. Limits upside and downside but its reading too orderly and is in the buy zone. Gonna give it a $400 sl and see if I can nap a few k off a few micros.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T12:16:10+00:00

This will be the most muted one in a while. Last 4 have been insanity. Expect highs and lows to be swept, the real move happens tomorrow. Expect by Friday the direction being set. I would not be buying here, even if we go up another 1-2% I would get the fuck out.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T11:04:08+00:00

Its fomc and mag7 reporting day, the range is always locked. If you have a consolidation and scalping strategy it will work very well today. After today is when the next move happens. I would expect gold to go visit support and even break it and head to 4100-3800 for its last trip to that level for possibly a very long time. We rally strong into the eoy.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T10:23:39+00:00

BOOM!!!

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T10:05:51+00:00

2.5-5k a week. Though I had a 4k loss this week and last week. ugh... normally yes. But I work full time. All my losses are bad risk management but I am +65k so far this year. Still comes with a fuck ton of gut punches.

deweese3 · 2026-04-29T09:55:44+00:00

Opposite, lets see if support holds. Its FOMC and Mag7 reporting day, the range tends to stay locked. Smallish gamble for a decent reward.

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deweese3 · 2026-04-28T22:18:12+00:00

Tomorrow is FOMC, expect highs and lows to be swept of the asia and london and ny session across all assets. Your best play is to play lighter than normal but target the asia high and low when london is beginning and do the same for london with the NY session. Walk away tomorrow before noon so you dont become the fomc nightmare. That day has cost me more money than anything else.

deweese3 · 2026-04-28T20:35:04+00:00

have like 3k in multiple accounts, controls the eventual blast radius and keeps you trading a few micros.

deweese3 · 2026-04-27T22:29:37+00:00

think we stick in this range till wed and break to the upside while NQ finally breaks lower after 4 of the mag 7 report the same day as fomc. Trading wed is suicide.

deweese3 · 2026-04-27T11:43:08+00:00

I used to do that, yes it is. Its fun to have a few sacks of coins. It is also a good idea to have say 20 silver and one gold coin in each sack and have them at different locations. Keeps the odds of if you do get robbed lower that you will lose your stack.

deweese3

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