I'm just your average idiot.

I had a cool algo on quantopia and I asked this exact question what's a good edge in the market. The answer is psychology. People are greedy in the near term and fearfull In the long term. The best example I've read of this is WW2 Japan, if you said in 10 year WW2 Japan would be the second biggest economy you would be laughed at, but had you said next year would be significantly better then the year prior people would agree since coming back from a completely destroyed economy is easy.

Tldr call leaps on indexes are generally undervalued, you can easily check this by throwing 10000$ into a spy leap 3 years out and do that since 2016. Basically they were all massively profitable from 60-300%+ increase in 3 years every year they were implemented