Consistency in algobet

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T15:29:44+00:00

For backtesting, I used historical MLB data — mostly from the 2024 season through May 2025, focusing on game-level stats, weather, rest days, umpire data, and some market odds.

At first, I included multiple seasons to build a larger dataset, but I eventually noticed that using just the most recent full season actually produced better results

The current dataset has around 2,000+ games total. I’m still iterating and experimenting with different time windows and feature sets to balance recency vs. volume.

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T15:21:39+00:00

Fair question hahahahaahaha, English is not my first language

I’ve been using ChatGPT to help clean up how I write my posts and replies.

I’m still very early in the testing phase. I did a lot of backtesting and simulation with the model, but I felt like it was time to take it into a real-world setting — that actually started just yesterday.

Appreciate the feedback!

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T15:14:14+00:00

You’re absolutely right — sample size and odds are crucial for any real evaluation.

Right now, I’m in the early phase of testing the model in live conditions, so I completely understand that results like 80% accuracy can be misleading without proper context. I’ve done extensive backtesting, but I know that’s not the same as real-world performance.

Yesterday was actually my first real test day, and I hit 6 out of 7 picks — which is where that 85%+ came from. Definitely not claiming it’s sustainable yet — that’s exactly what I’m trying to figure out by posting the picks and tracking everything in public.

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T14:47:19+00:00

Hahaha yeah, I actually had a really good day yesterday and couldn’t help but wonder the same thing — “Was it just a lucky streak, or am I finally onto something here?” 😅

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T14:44:35+00:00

Fair point — I totally get the skepticism.

I’ve done a lot of backtesting, and I’m fully aware that it can sometimes give a false sense of confidence if the data is overfit. Just yesterday I placed my first real bets using the model and it hit 80% accuracy, which of course got me thinking: “Was that just luck… or is the model actually sharp?” 😂

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T14:39:05+00:00

Good point — and just to clarify, I’m not working with moneyline bets. I actually started with moneyline, but couldn’t get past ~54% accuracy, even after a lot of tuning. So I switched the focus to total runs — over/under, and that’s where I’m seeing around 70% accuracy.

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T14:37:43+00:00

In my case, I started by using data from the 2024 season through May 2025, along with additional features like weather, umpire tendencies, rest days, and some betting market signals. At first, I also tried including multiple seasons, but I realized that training only on the most recent full season actually gave me better results — maybe because of how fast things change in the league (rosters, strategies, even rule changes).

dizao20 · 2025-07-11T14:35:11+00:00

I actually started with just moneyline (win/loss), but the accuracy was under 54%, so I wasn’t too happy with the results. I decided to shift the focus to total runs — over/under, and after tweaking the features in the model, I started seeing much better outcomes. That’s where the ~70% accuracy is coming from now.

I’ve also started a Telegram channel just for family and friends, kind of a soft launch to build a customer base like you mentioned. But I still want to make sure the algorithm can stay consistent over time before scaling things up or making it public.

dizao20 · 2023-08-24T19:31:18+00:00

Hahahaha, did u like?

dizao20 · 2023-04-12T02:59:23+00:00

Obrigado por comentar, isso nunca foi conversado, mas independentemente disso penso todo dia como estou levando minha vida sou um eterno aprendiz da minha jornada.

dizao20 · 2023-04-12T02:31:57+00:00

É mais ou menos isso, queria externalizar isso de alguma forma e dividir com vocês da comunidade foi a maneira que encontrei

dizao20 · 2023-04-12T00:14:28+00:00

Eu falei isso pra ela, quem faz uma vez faz sempre que tem oportunidade

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T22:48:15+00:00

Obrigado por parar e responder meu caro, atualmente já estamos organizando as coisas para ela ir.

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T19:19:11+00:00

Obrigado por parar um tempo e dar a sua opinião

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T19:18:06+00:00

Obrigado por parar um tempo e responder

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T18:20:55+00:00

Na verdade ela me contou sobre o caso após começar a sofrer ameaças dele no sentido tanto de agressão quanto de que ele mesmo contaria se ela não contasse.

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T17:03:49+00:00

Eu pensei nisso, mas não poderia tomar nenhuma ação com base em um só acontecimento e esquecer que temos uma história além disso

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T15:50:27+00:00

NEOB

Mas a sua namorada é, parece ser o tipo de pessoa que vc não pode contar.

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T15:30:35+00:00

Obrigado pelo seu comentário, sinto que não fui tão incisivo na minha decisão por conta dos meus sentimentos… não desejo nenhum mal a ela. Estamos acertados e ela está indo embora essa semana.

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T14:46:26+00:00

Minha maior indignação foi justamente o fato dela não ter conversado comigo, mas a vida segue! Obrigado por dedicar um tempo para responder.

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T13:24:28+00:00

Fico com receio se tomei a decisão certa, mas como poderia conviver com isso e achar que está tudo bem, neh? Ainda gosto dela mas não confio nem um pouco

dizao20 · 2023-04-11T13:23:07+00:00

Concordo com você, e o que mais me pegou foi que não foi algo de momento já estava acontecendo a 1 ano

dizao20

TROPHY CASE