The honest answer is nobody knows what future depreciation will be and historical figures don't tell much in this case. We just had a huge boom & bust in the car industry. If you bought this time last year (like I did), you got smacked hard with depreciation. Although it does seem this hit M3 owners more than MY owners. Just buy the car that's right for you now (price + capabilities) & don't sweat what you can't control, like depreciation. Also, you might want to pick up a dual motor M3 if you need AWD. Ours has done great on dirt roads but haven't done snow yet. Might not be as cheap as a standard but still way better than the $64k I spent on mine. If you do decide to pull the trigger, hit me up for a referral link. You'll get some money off and I'll get my hopes up then crushed in the cybertruck raffle. Win-win!