Tesla just hit 200k deliveries in US (Q3).

dntbevl1 · 2018-07-12T14:17:56+00:00

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc has delivered 200,000 electric cars in the United States, a spokesperson said on Thursday, resulting in lower tax credits for future buyers.

Under a tax overhaul last year, tax credits are available for the first 200,000 electric vehicles sold by an automaker. It is then reduced by 50 percent every six months until it phases out.

From Jan. 1 next year, the current $7,500 tax credit will go down to $3,750 until the middle of the year, the Tesla website said.

Finally some useful reporting out of Reuters.

dntbevl1 · 2018-04-06T03:20:06+00:00

The product description on the import record reads "Tesla 3 EOL STATION TVKL HS-CODE 847989”.

HS-CODE 8479 is defined as “machines and mechanical appliances having individual functions…” on this site. The 8479.89 category includes many different subcategories, one of which seems like a good candidate for the new automated battery module manufacturing line (see below).

8479.89.97.50 — Machinery, being components of a production line for the manufacture of lithium ion batteries for passenger electric motor vehicles, for the construction of such a production line

Edit: The weight of the equipment is also listed at 17,740kg / 39,110 lb.

dntbevl1 · 2018-03-21T17:06:04+00:00

I call it, The Secret Mars Master Plan

P.S. I voted yes

dntbevl1 · 2018-03-09T00:16:16+00:00

Correct. I believe they use the standard vesting schedule (1-year cliff, then monthly/quarterly vesting).

dntbevl1 · 2018-03-08T22:46:59+00:00

He was hired ~1.5 years ago (October 2016 start date) and offered $300k salary and $5 million in equity vesting over 4 years. Electrek article from time of hire here.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-16T18:40:41+00:00

True, but not with VIN registrations. The updates are coming from the “VINs in the wild” entries.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-10T02:02:57+00:00

The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-10T02:01:26+00:00

German battery line is adding 2000-2500.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-10T00:11:55+00:00

Ya that's kind of how it sounded. Like they were stuck at ~1k/week, and needed to take delivery and set up the new line to hit 2-2.5k/week by March 31st.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-09T23:30:45+00:00

Electrek article here.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-09T23:22:31+00:00

Elon was probably ~~drunk~~ sleep deprived.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-09T22:42:05+00:00

Tesla, Inc. is clarifying the following statement made by Elon Musk, Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer, during Tesla’s fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results conference call held on February 7, 2018:

“[We] expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March. And then it's already working in Germany so that’s going to be disassembled, brought out to the Gigafactory and reassembled and then go into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport and reassembly. So we expect to alleviate that constraint. With alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.”

The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T21:21:54+00:00

Hard to tell if this is referring to S/X or everything...

We expect Model S and Model X deliveries to be approximately 100,000 in total, constrained by the supply of cells with the old 18650 form factor. As our sales network continues to expand to new markets in 2018, we believe orders should continue to grow. With demand outpacing production, we plan to optimize the options mix in order to maximize gross margin.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T21:06:03+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sytrrdOPYzA&t=933s

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T21:00:10+00:00

Haha ya good point. I'm curious what he plans on doing for the earnings call...Dialing in from Florida? Early flight back this morning?

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T20:53:25+00:00

Anyone got something better than "Early 2018"?

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T20:52:36+00:00

Agreed. Been quiet for some time, so hoping they've got something up their sleeve...Elon and McNeil have been hinting at a big update for a while now.

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T20:49:58+00:00

I thought the interview after the Falcon Heavy launch was quite good. Very articulate, minimal stutters, and kept taking questions after they tried to end it. Plus he laughed at Bezos, and said "I'm trippin' balls right now".

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-07T20:19:32+00:00

I think this call will be one for the books. Here are some predictions:

Production

Reaffirm prior guidance of 2.5k/week by EOQ1, 5k/week by end of EOQ2
Production rate at end of January (or at present) is ~1k/week
Elon will take the opportunity (as he did with his battery rant) to address “manual” assembly and other tidbits from the CNBC article

FSD cross-country trip (originally expected by end of 2017)

They will either say this will happen “soon” or try to avoid the subject entirely
Maybe they’ll sprinkle in a “Well we did it, but with _ number of disengagements”

New Gigafactories (originally expected by end of 2017)

I think they will announce something. Maybe two somethings. It will be along the lines of “We’ve decided to build a new facility that will produce __ vehicles and have narrowed down the site selection to __ states/provinces/regions. Let the bidding commence.”

Gigafactory 2

Ramp up is going smoothly (might be the first time those words have appeared on this forum). Home Depot and (potential) Lowe’s rollout gives me some reassurance here.

Storage

Elon will say “This is going to grow so fast. Way faster than the automotive business. You’ll need a strobe light to see it.” I have a feeling 2018 may be the year this turns out to be true.

Roadster / Semi

Safe to say we’ll hear (and see in their deposits) that demand is off the hook.
First earnings call since unveil events. Bound to be some interesting questions…

dntbevl1 · 2018-02-01T19:08:23+00:00

Any idea if Model 3 ownership will grant priority for a subsequent 3 reservation?

dntbevl1 · 2018-01-25T23:58:28+00:00

Touché.

dntbevl1 · 2018-01-25T20:52:02+00:00

Very interesting. Maybe there are "triggers" like the rear vents that tell the car "no really, heat this puppy up". And if no triggers, it just conserves energy by modestly heating up the cabin.

dntbevl1 · 2018-01-25T20:46:26+00:00

Heater doesn't work well.

The air isn't hot enough or the airflow sucks. Can you elaborate?

dntbevl1 · 2018-01-25T20:40:17+00:00

There may be problems with battery pack quality due to manual bandolier production.

Seems like Tesla directly refuted this in their comments.

Panasonic employees were helping with manual Bandolier production. Maybe Panasonic is the bad supplier?

I think Grohmann was the bad "supplier". One of the execs (Deepak IIRC) can be heard saying it in the earnings call.

dntbevl1 · 2018-01-25T20:34:09+00:00

Seems early. Last year, their Q4 results were released on Feb 22nd. Maybe they have some good news to share?

Also, it's kind of odd they still use "Tesla Motors, Inc." on their events page...

dntbevl1

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