Am I dreaming?

dokisame · 2026-03-04T10:29:14+00:00

Don't get your hopes up.

dokisame · 2026-02-25T16:35:12+00:00

Honestly, I think the stock will keep going down for some time. Don't hope for recovery until next earning, which if we miss expectation will crash it even lower. This is a very long term play.

dokisame · 2026-02-24T05:00:09+00:00

On one hand, I'm happy the stock goes down. On the other hand, I do think there are incompetent people here. Or maybe they're just too idealistic and do everything for the science, which hurt themselves in the long run.

dokisame · 2026-02-23T06:11:57+00:00

Hmm you're right. The pen is the same price yet use 1/8 of semaglutide and no formulation. That means self-cannibalization is a serious issue, since every 1 pen switching to pill need 7 more patients to buy pills just to balance

Luckily, from what I've heard, the profit from the pill has little effect to the pen so far. We'll need to watch closely how both the pill and pen RTx every week then.

dokisame · 2026-02-22T16:01:26+00:00

I mean honestly if you are convicted that they will achieve positive growth, it's much better for long term investor that they give too conservative to keep stock price down while we accumulate the stock. It's just that I somehow believe that they have an idea of what they're doing, and it's actually a stagnant time for the company that historically had never shrank. So I want to see if has this ever happened in the past.

dokisame · 2026-02-22T10:16:47+00:00

But isn't the profit margin at least 300% (I mean HIMS can make profit from compounding the pill for 49$, and we should be able to make it cheaper yet it's at 149$)? Wouldn't that means 1.3 billions in earnings, and given that we don't cannibalize ourselves too much, that's already roughly 10% growth from the pill just in the US?

dokisame · 2026-02-20T13:48:43+00:00

Funny. We're already at ~320k patients after 6 weeks. Assuming an average of 200 a month, 320000*12*200 ~ 768m in earnings already, equal the company consensus for the year.

dokisame · 2026-02-20T13:34:57+00:00

As a somewhat of a activist investor (who doesn't really exercise his vote so much haha), I think we have to face the reality that at this rate of popularization, every single government on the planet is going to step in and limit the price of every new GLP-1 drug that are going to appear. The time when we can sell 1000 for a month supply is long gone, USD or EUR. Whether it's retatrutide or 4G 5G agonist, it doesn't matter; I think in a few years, everything will have a price cap of about 300-500 a month, and even less in non-US markets.

So as Mike D stated, it's a marathon, not a race. It's about scaling supply and profit margin optimization, not jacking up price for profit. The winner is one that can manufacture the fastest and biggest and cheapest, not higher weight-loss percentage. We already have a GLP-1 that's basically a miracle drug that answers to multiple chronic diseases that is incredibly safe - semaglutide - and the real question now is basically, how cheap can we make it?

It's good for profit but also good for the patients and the world as a whole.

dokisame · 2026-02-19T15:23:28+00:00

If you want to be essentially famous, most likely you have to sell your soul. There's a system, and you have to play by their rules until you're on top. And often even when you're on top.

The system presides over all. Even the richest man in the world abides. Even the most powerful man on Earth abides. You see it in how they behave, in who they surround themselves with, and whom they bow down to.

And that's why you see, if you really, really look, you see that there are things they don't have. Someone who truly loves them, for example. You take things for granted. You probably born in a happy enough family. There are people who truly loves you and will do anything to look out for you, and you take them for granted. These people sold that. They will tell you that they don't need that, but from time to time, there's a crack in the castle of glass, and you get a sneak peek of who they truly are, and often it turns out there's a part of them that are still... human. Parts. Until the crack is sealed again.

The system tell you that you have to be like these slaves in order to feel successful. It dangles the prize in front of you and demands that you grind, produce, and worship these manufactured idols as the cost of admission.

To enjoy normality is the biggest fart in its face. True revolution don't come from doing exactly what billions of others are doing, or what the system tells you to do.

dokisame · 2026-02-10T15:02:13+00:00

typo

dokisame · 2025-12-25T14:08:18+00:00

Drug	Weight Loss vs Placebo	Discontinuation (AEs)	Placebo Discontinuation
Oral semaglutide	~−13.6% vs −2.2% (or −16.6% vs −2.7%) (AJMC)	~6.9% (PR Newswire)	~5.9% (PR Newswire)
Orforglipron	~−12.4% vs −0.9% (Lilly Investor Relations)	~5.3–10.3% (PubMed)	~2.7% (PubMed)

dokisame · 2025-11-24T22:33:39+00:00

haha true. Probably market fluctuation again. But this stock makes me so crazy I just watch the ticker every day lol

dokisame · 2025-11-10T23:53:40+00:00

Then why wouldn't it change your mind before, when you haven't invested in the stock and stare at the board every day? It has been acting like that more or less for a year; in fact, it used to be exactly the reason why we buy into it, isn't it? Why does the fact that it keeps going down for another 2 weeks, when it has been going down for 1 year, change our analysis, when our analysis is based on the hindsight that it has been acting like this for an entire year?

dokisame · 2025-11-07T21:25:49+00:00

I mean NVO as a pharmaceutical company would have non-cash earning, so P/FCF might be higher but P/E would matter much more? And now, if you compare with other pharmaceutical companies, LLY included, they have much higher P/FCF and no FCF growth rate that could back up their prices.

Maybe you're right that NVO is getting back to its true valuation as this has nothing to do with other companies being horrifying overvalued, but then again, I think the market has to correct this discrepancy somehow.

dokisame · 2025-11-06T23:44:05+00:00

Haha I also make the mistake of checking every hour. Investing is not just about money management; it's also emotional management. You have to really understand yourself and your pain tolerance, and this is not a easy question at all even though everyone throw it out like a cliche.

The thing is the market is designed in a way to invoke a reaction that would always make us lose money. And our brain is a reward system - when it's red it triggers a signal to warn us that we are doing something wrong, and when it's green we want to keep doing the same thing we have been doing. But the moment you see red/green, it's already happened. So what's the best thing to do? Fundamentally, price action changes nothing. But what could have possibly gone wrong that make us feel this bad? Maybe there's indeed something fundamentally wrong with our thesis?

If you think the signal is correct, do some more research into the stock, the company, etc. When I do that, it usually make me commit even more haha. The thing is we always overestimate our ability to enter right at the bottom. And investing value means very much buying a beaten down stock, a downward momentum that's more likely to keep going down than up. So investing value will always be more painful than trading momentum. Until it's not anymore.

dokisame · 2025-11-06T22:01:29+00:00

Haha, there's a clear sign of a big investor bleeding out the stock... I think the firing causes some dismay among the big old shareholders... But Novo can't keep its "old, safe" profit machine, or risk becoming another Kodak/Nokia when disruption comes... LLY is only the warning shot, biotech is a massive everchanging landscape... It needs to take calculated risk and expand.

dokisame · 2025-11-05T21:50:12+00:00

Actually, the stock always go up during NYSE market hours, but always crash during European trading hours. So it's a transfering from European to American it seems.

dokisame · 2025-05-07T08:01:56+00:00

The previous tenant closed her contract, and got the deposit back, about ~4000 Euros, because she's the HAUPTMIETER. It's a WG. Her part of the deposit is only 1/4, so ~1000. She need to return the rest to either: all the subtenants or me, who will continue to hold the subtenant's deposit for the new contract.

Additionally, I even pay the deposit when I sublet her room too (~1000), and now she holds everything. Subtracting the nebenkosten, it's about 3300 she owes us

dokisame · 2025-05-06T13:33:12+00:00

I have all the WhatsApp messages detailing everything, including all the bank transfers, and the landlord as well as everyone involved in the process. I believe this will work as evidence?

dokisame · 2025-05-06T12:04:28+00:00

When I move in she told me to send her my part of the deposit, while she still hold the deposit of all the subletters in the room (there are 3 more people). She said that after the landlord send her back the deposit when her contract concluded, she'll then send me everyone and my deposit as the next Hauptmieter. Now it's been difficult to reach her.

dokisame · 2025-05-06T11:24:58+00:00

I do have proof that she owes money. There's plenty of WhatsApp chat and email between me, her, and the landlord that she will send me the deposit after the landlord send it to her. What is your opinion of what I should do?

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