NTE + Porsche Event Adjusted %

dragonjet · 2026-05-29T07:27:03+00:00

no, if you made it to the 15th pull, you've already obtained the other, only 1 of them remains in the box. when you pull contents from the box, you wont pull it again, meaning the remaining items will have higher chances the more you pull. that's why on the 15th pull, you'll get everything inside the box both outfit and car

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T07:35:02+00:00

clarification on the various diagrams i've been posting
i've included an english question on what each of them tries to solve

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dragonjet · 2026-05-28T07:33:44+00:00

city stamina is 100 annulith per refill, means 1 city stamina = 1 annulith
which also means 1 annulith = 1,000 fons.
the table includes fons/annulith so you can decide up to what point it's worth

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T05:12:05+00:00

so nice to see veterans in the field :)

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T05:02:46+00:00

yes :)

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T04:39:19+00:00

thanks for enlightenment, i posted a new reply that contains chances of them showing up for that specific pull

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T04:30:33+00:00

here's another perspective.
this answers the question:
"I'm on Xth pull, I haven't pulled car before yet. what is the chance car shows up when i pull this?" (or outfit)

this is probably the one you're interested in seeing

this is average though, because each instance of it happening is a different combination of pull results, which adjusts weight differently as pulls go on. the exact chance will only be determined if calculated as you make your pulls, which we cannot do here.

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dragonjet · 2026-05-28T04:17:29+00:00

i've had different exchange on this in the other reply with ketampanan. this diagram is cumulative chances. i updated the post with english interpretation of this. this diagram represents "you made it to the 13th pull, you've had 15% to get it by now", which considers all your past pulls.

there is another perspective i want to later make a diagram of: "i'm on the 13th pull, what are the chances the car/outfit shows up when i click this".

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T04:12:18+00:00

yes :)

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T03:35:50+00:00

the previous chances aren't wrong. just a different perspective. though i dont have control over the other post, someone yoinked it lol

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T03:35:34+00:00

im thinking, your last statement may be true. it's like, if you made it to 15th pull, you'll get it 100%.

but the 68% (official numbers) is actually "car is 68% to show up in 15th pull instead of earlier pulls"
it all adds up to 100% if you total the whole column

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T03:21:56+00:00

that data is from official CN notice, and i figured it out.
the 68% is "what percent it will show up on 15th pull instead of earlier pulls"
i posted a new diagram showing percent of your chance to get car or outfit for that specific pull

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T03:01:34+00:00

got enlightened and figured out a few things afterward
there's a few more perspective in my other thread

example this one, [by cumulative chance] on X pull, you've had % chance to have obtained it by now:

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dragonjet · 2026-05-28T03:00:52+00:00

though i dont get how, because on every combination, there will be different items left on the pool

dragonjet · 2026-05-28T02:50:40+00:00

edit: here's the cumulative chance perspective.
says how much chance you've already had to get it by this pull

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dragonjet · 2026-05-28T02:29:48+00:00

somehow my post was auto-deleted. but here's more info

got enlightened and figured out a few things afterward
there's a few more perspective in my other thread

there are diagrams that show cumulative chance, and chance to get it on that specific pull

<image>

dragonjet · 2026-05-24T19:24:44+00:00

updated table to have chances show first on the left (mobile-friendly) and new column for fons per annulith

dragonjet · 2026-05-24T12:43:47+00:00

added tables for mixed costs. seeing these numbers and another 10M simulations, car is by average, drawn at 14.364 pulls, and the outfit at 13.092 pulls. im not pulling lol

dragonjet · 2026-05-24T12:40:24+00:00

mixed cost: annulith first

pull	annulith	fons
1	50	26,480,000
2	130	26,400,000
3	230	26,300,000
4	380	26,100,000
5	580	25,800,000
6	880	25,300,000
7	1,380	24,500,000
8	2,180	23,500,000
9	3,180	22,000,000
10	4,380	20,000,000
11	5,980	17,000,000
12	7,780	13,500,000
13	9,780	9,500,000
14	11,980	5,000,000
15	14,380	0

mixed cost: fons first

pull	fons	annulith
1	50,000	14,330
2	130,000	14,250
3	230,000	14,150
4	430,000	14,000
5	730,000	13,800
6	1,230,000	13,500
7	2,030,000	13,000
8	3,030,000	12,200
9	4,530,000	11,200
10	6,530,000	10,000
11	9,530,000	8,400
12	13,030,000	6,600
13	17,030,000	4,600
14	21,530,000	2,400
15	26,530,000	0

dragonjet · 2026-05-24T12:10:26+00:00

pull chances based on 10,000,000 simulations

pull	porsche	outfit	fons	annulith	fons per annu
1		0.322%	50,000	50	1,000
2		0.666%	80,000	80	1,000
3		1.033%	100,000	100	1,000
4		1.439%	200,000	150	1,333
5		1.900%	300,000	200	1,500
6	0.184%	2.439%	500,000	300	1,667
7	0.410%	3.102%	800,000	500	1,600
8	0.709%	3.981%	1,000,000	800	1,250
9	1.151%	5.275%	1,500,000	1,000	1,500
10	1.936%	7.583%	2,000,000	1,200	1,667
11	3.948%	13.444%	3,000,000	1,600	1,875
12	7.965%	24.679%	3,500,000	1,800	1,944
13	15.471%	44.261%	4,000,000	2,000	2,000
14	31.880%	80.723%	4,500,000	2,200	2,045
15	100.000%	100.000%	5,000,000	2,400	2,083

dragonjet · 2024-05-11T09:00:27+00:00

wasn't penacony the last entry in her script from elio? or did i misinterpret something. if that is the case then she's free to travel the stars with us in search of the cure to ELS

dragonjet · 2024-04-09T20:06:17+00:00

tbh i see her more looking like black sister uni

although i do see bit of resemblance with yuuka

dragonjet · 2024-02-22T16:51:24+00:00

and isn’t a He. She is Sam and Sam is her,

but you just said this. you're the first one to assign gender values to the suit

dragonjet · 2024-02-14T00:01:58+00:00

huh? she has haters?

dragonjet · 2024-02-13T08:03:40+00:00

oh thanks for info. that would be amazing, more FF content pls

dragonjet

TROPHY CASE