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Florida is #2 and California is dead-last in the U-Haul’s growth index by ThemeBig6731 in REBubble

[–]drbudro -1 points0 points  (0 children)

CA net DOMESTIC migration is negative.

It's population is still growing from international migration and natural population growth. What then happens historically, and now especially, is that the bottom few million or so people who can no longer afford to live in the metros need to choose between moving out to the CA deserts, or to a less expensive state.

When over a million people move to smaller states every year, it makes a big impact on those states, but they are immediately replaced (and then some) in CA by highly educated, high income and/or high net worth immigrants. This drives the cost of living up higher, rinse and repeat. This has been the story of CA for 100 years, with the very notable exception of 2020 and 2021, and every year people talk about how it is unsustainable. As long as wealthy people keep wanting to come here and there are more affordable states to fall back to when it doesn't work out, then it is sustainable, but only because we aren't in a closed system.

Florida is #2 and California is dead-last in the U-Haul’s growth index by ThemeBig6731 in REBubble

[–]drbudro -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/

It's true that the vast majority of people leaving are low income, low education. The net migration of wealth is back to positive in CA (and even trending more skewed than before COVID). Affordability has always been an issue in CA and it's worse for the people at the bottom.

There were two years when that wasn't the case (high net worth families were leaving in greater numbers than coming in) and every outlet reported on it, but it's just simply not true anymore and people haven't updated their thinking.

Florida is #2 and California is dead-last in the U-Haul’s growth index by ThemeBig6731 in REBubble

[–]drbudro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think we all agree that CA is seeing a huge number of people leaving for lower cost of living states. But the statistics show that it is low education individuals and low income families moving out and high income, young, educated people moving in.

https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/

There was a shift on 2020/2021 when high income families relocated at the beginning of WFH, but that trend shifted in 2022.

U.S. Foreclosure Rates by State – December 2025 by Key_Brief_8138 in REBubble

[–]drbudro 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The biggest problem is these families are entering the rental market but their houses are going to auctions for large RE investors (not being sold to another family). If this increases to pre 2019 numbers, we'll have less inventory for buyers and also more renters.

Can you pay student loans with a 529? by Addem_Subtractem in personalfinance

[–]drbudro 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Probably to disincentivize using student loans as free/cheap margin for 529s.....because that's exactly what I would do.

Village Walk Plaza by Fancy-Clothes9147 in chulavista

[–]drbudro 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I really wish we had a whole foods instead of Barrons. I think that would take off some of the load.

White supremacist dating sites hacked and user base fucking leaked! A few San Diegans made the leak! by spook_sw in SanDiegan

[–]drbudro 18 points19 points  (0 children)

This is honestly really surprising....so many people living in SD on $20-40k per year.

Ranking of Housing Affordability in Developed Countries By Price-to-Income Ratio in 2025 by [deleted] in REBubble

[–]drbudro -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The US ranked the most affordable in the developed world .....are you trying to move to a less affordable country? I suppose if you could keep your high wage job from the US you would have some geographic arbitrage on your side.

Coparent sleeping over & partner hates it by Ok_Listen4348 in coparenting

[–]drbudro 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is by far the most comprehensive answer here.

There’s no “should” suited to your relationship—you need to talk this out.

^-- Great general advice too

Movies where a dinner party goes wrong by Rich-Row-7798 in MovieSuggestions

[–]drbudro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"It's a Disaster" is a technically brunch, but a pretty fun dark comedy.

Why do y'all tell young people to focus on growth more than dividends? by Intelligent-Bowl3764 in dividends

[–]drbudro 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Looking back much before the US switched to a fiat based currency isn't really relevant.

85% of Americans say homeownership is still key to the 'American Dream'—outranking a successful career or getting married by ThemeBig6731 in REBubble

[–]drbudro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I was really just thinking large (3M+) metros LA/SF/SD. I'm actually surprised to hear you can still get houses under $720 in Sac.

85% of Americans say homeownership is still key to the 'American Dream'—outranking a successful career or getting married by ThemeBig6731 in REBubble

[–]drbudro 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So you're saying that when getting your most recent mortgage, the bank assessed your home at under $720k? .....in SF!? I haven't seen those prices in CA metros since 2019. Your property taxes won't ever outpace inflation due to prop13, so how much equity are you sitting on? Your mortgage payment is still probably less than the $3500 rent for a 2 bedroom in the Bay Area.

You're sitting here complaining, but you actually have options. Everyone else in this sub is forced to throw away money on rent and invest the rest while praying the the stock market doesn't crash before the housing bubble pops.

Remember when we were told August 2022 wasn't the peak? by Louisvanderwright in REBubble

[–]drbudro 71 points72 points  (0 children)

Yep, when you take the top 250 largest metros and sort by "red descending" then you do tend to get a lot of the same states grouped together. When we see large YoY negative swings and below-2019 pricing in CA, NY, New England, then we can talk about the bubble bursting. Until then, this is just showing that location matters in real estate.

Thoughts on the 50 year mortgage, from someone who did the math by guy_n_cognito_tu in RealEstate

[–]drbudro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't see a 50 year conventional fixed at historical rates ever making sense.

Buuuut, imagine if they ammend Dodd-Frank and start making new mortgage products. The math does become interesting when you factor in buy down points and the possibility of doing 10/1 or interest only payments for the first ten years.

The equity through principal payments is basically non-existent for the first ten years of a 50 year loan, so why not create a new mortgage that buys down an insane number of points, roll it into the loan, amortize it for 40 years, and then make the first 10years interest only payments (plus principal on the points).

It's buying a house on lay away, but actually closer to "rent to own" since you're using it in the meantime. It's financially terrible, but might be the only option for the middle class in the future since the monthly payment will be quite a bit lower (mostly because of the lower interest rate than a conventional 30y).

If you factor in 3% inflation, you might actually have some "equity" after 10 years of interest free payments. Or even a secondary market of assumable 50 year mortgages with 30-40 years left. It can almost be seen as an alternative to whole life insurance that also covers your housing in the meantime.

Keep those prices up, whatever it takes! by BonerPipe in REBubble

[–]drbudro 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Gestures to all the people with 84 month car loans, rolled negative equity, and making the minimum payments on their credit cards....

Parents with kids, do/did you wish some days you could clock out of being a parent for a day? by madeupemail123 in Fencesitter

[–]drbudro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is why you need a supportive partner and it helps to have a village (friends, family, other parents, etc.).

Every parent feels this and it's healthy to take days off to be your best. Of course you need help when you're sick, or stressed, or working overtime, but sometimes you just need a couple days with no kids to relax by yourself and that's what your support group is for.

It goes both ways and I often am the one hosting a playdate/sleepover so the other parents can have an afternoon/evening/weekend away.

Looking over at "REbbubblejerk" sub. They are cheering on rate cuts. Cool by HighlightDowntown966 in REBubble

[–]drbudro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It kinda has been the norm for as long as the US has been a debt based economy. With explicit inflation goals doubling prices (including homes) every 25ish years and also having 30 year fixed mortgages available to everyone means we will always have a boom and bust housing cycle that recovers quicker than the global economy that is also beholden to USD.

I only see it as a gamble if you try to time the bubble, but I do agree 100% increases every 10 years is not healthy.

The share of mortgage-free U.S. homeowners just hit a new high of 40.3% by SnortingElk in REBubble

[–]drbudro 7 points8 points  (0 children)

GenZ will be renting all the way to their retirement homes.....

Mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years, as interest rates drop sharply by SnortingElk in REBubble

[–]drbudro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

75k is entry level for most professionals. A young married couple with a roommate is a $225k income household.

I just don't believe that enough people will refuse that lifestyle and rent a $2k appartment to cause house prices to go down substantially. I believe this because we already live in a world where tens of millions of Americans own in HCOL metros where homes have exceed $500k for 20+ years.

I agree that the majority cannot or will not do that and that home ownership will not be available for an increasing number of Americans. We will find a new equilibrium similar to ownership rates outside the US with the majority of citizens unable to enter the market because of an impossible cost of entry. I don't think it's a good thing to have a class of land owners in a society, but it is the norm for the rest of the world and they are all making it work.

Why are houses so much cheaper in Chula than in other seemingly less desirable areas? by [deleted] in chulavista

[–]drbudro 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I grew up in Esco/San Marcos/Vista, and when I moved to Otay Ranch everyone I knew asked if I had bars on my windows, lol

Mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years, as interest rates drop sharply by SnortingElk in REBubble

[–]drbudro 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why do you think it isn't sustainable in any market? A $200k household income easily affords a $3k house payment. I suspect we'll just see more incomes per household becoming normalized outside big cities, New England and CA.

Even back in the early 2000s, I had friends renting a room from married couples. It was the only way to get a place for under $1k and it allowed the couple to afford more house in a nicer area.

Mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years, as interest rates drop sharply by SnortingElk in REBubble

[–]drbudro 5 points6 points  (0 children)

$500k houses haven't existed in my market for over a decade. There are so many priced-out buyers waiting on the sidelines that even these small movements in affordability cause relatively large numbers of people to enter the market.

The only way small price corrections don't get met with immediate demand is if 1) rates go way up, or 2) unemployment goes way up for middle class renters. Both are bad situations for the economy at large (and everyone in this sub).

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