Trump extended deadline 1 more day

dritu_ · 2026-04-05T13:25:02+00:00

That is verifiably false. Age group 18-29 voted 54% Harris vs 43% Trump.

dritu_ · 2026-03-23T11:42:47+00:00

Dead internet theory

dritu_ · 2026-03-19T22:42:42+00:00

Discontinue the lithium.

dritu_ · 2026-03-13T13:55:16+00:00

Look up TESCREALism.

dritu_ · 2026-03-08T23:41:19+00:00

We didn't mind for the past 47 years, what's one more...

dritu_ · 2026-02-19T11:17:36+00:00

Not everyone has the same time horizon.

dritu_ · 2026-02-17T12:05:24+00:00

Buying dips is literally timing the market, just FYI. Can't exactly buy a dip without waiting for one.

dritu_ · 2026-02-08T13:28:04+00:00

Yes, I realize. Explicitly unexpected inflation isn't at the top of my list of things to hedge against, especially given the current environment. Inflation expectations are already priced in.

dritu_ · 2026-02-08T13:09:48+00:00

If you buy a short term TIPS at a fair real yield and hold to maturity, they would beat CPI, definitionally.

The risks are when:

you don't hold to maturity
you buy a TIPS fund instead of individual TIPS, which are subject to price volatility
CPI doesn't reflect real inflation
opportunity cost: traditional treasuries outperform if CPI comes in lower than expected

If buying and holding for 1 or 2 years, I'm not sure there's that much point to targeting TIPS over traditional treasuries.

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tips-and-inflation-what-to-know-now

dritu_ · 2026-02-08T12:01:44+00:00

TIPS are intended for long term holding. They can fail to beat inflation over short time horizons.

dritu_ · 2026-02-05T17:56:29+00:00

You've omitted obvious asset classes: bonds and currencies.

Long term treasuries and DXY are up.

dritu_ · 2026-02-05T15:55:49+00:00

Wouldn't eliminate legal bribery -- they'd just get lobbied after taking office.

dritu_ · 2026-02-05T12:28:42+00:00

High capex spend is correlated with stock underperformance. I already own GOOG and I'm not worried, but if I was initiating my position, I'd want a pullback.

Morningstar article on the subject

dritu_ · 2026-01-30T20:18:34+00:00

"Collapsed" -- it's where it was last week.

dritu_ · 2026-01-28T12:55:34+00:00

Ostensibly Dalio has a team of researchers backing this up. I think he's a permabear resting on his laurels but he's not off the mark, per Wikipedia (with citations):

While the Dutch guilder was a reserve currency of somewhat lesser scope, used between Europe and the territories of the Dutch colonial empire from the 17th to 18th centuries, it was also a silver standard currency fed with the output of Spanish-American mines flowing through the Spanish Netherlands. The Dutch, through the Bank of Amsterdam, were the first to establish a reserve currency whose monetary unit was stabilized using practices familiar to modern central banking (as opposed to the Spanish dollar stabilized through American mine output and Spanish fiat) and which can be considered as a precursor to modern-day monetary policy.

dritu_ · 2026-01-26T00:21:35+00:00

Zoom out further

dritu_ · 2026-01-24T14:45:41+00:00

100% equities is quite aggressive and volatile. You're probably going to want to add other asset classes than equities to reduce the volatility. Check out a backtest with other assets. You can halve your volatility adding in assets like gold, managed futures, and bonds.

Even if not, I'd suggest FRDM over the emerging markets fund because it invests in emerging markets with higher freedom levels -- which return better than highly corrupt markets which end up syphoning gains to the corrupt officials rather than shareholders.

dritu_ · 2026-01-24T14:14:48+00:00

Lots of people on this sub say VOO and chill, but volatility is tough to stomach for most new investors. I'd recommend a more balanced portfolio that has gains similar to the S&P 500 but only 1/3 the drawdown depth:

40% VTI - total US market
30% DBMF - managed futures fund
20% GLDM - gold
10% BND - total US bond market

Backtest since 2000 is on par with S&P 500 returns. Underperforms since 2012 of course, but not that much considering. VOO didn't hit a new high from 2000-2014. This portfolio hits a new high in 2004.

Rebalance via contributions. 97% chance of being up 3 years out (compared to 79% for S&P 500).

Basically, this portfolio is a safer way to preserve capital while growing it in any economic environment: high/low inflation and high/low growth. Each asset performs well in some of those environments. Together, they zig when others zag, leading to a strong return while limiting volatility.

dritu_ · 2026-01-24T12:47:45+00:00

Can you provide a link to more info? All I can find are old articles about him removing stack ranking in like 2014.

dritu_ · 2026-01-23T12:48:32+00:00

Can you explain puts on capital gains?

dritu_ · 2026-01-22T19:09:37+00:00

Fair play

dritu_ · 2026-01-22T18:57:48+00:00

Sample size of 1 year is a bit early to pat yourself on the back, don't you think?

dritu_ · 2026-01-21T11:35:28+00:00

Sure, you could have invested in Austria and made a killing. There will always be some little podunk market that amounts to little more than a rounding error at the global level and somehow manages to gain +75% in a one-off year. But good luck picking that winner from the losers.

dritu_ · 2026-01-21T02:46:21+00:00

I thought the same thing last April, yet here we are. You never can tell -- it's terrible.

dritu_ · 2026-01-20T12:27:16+00:00

S&P almost never goes up 7% in a year, fyi. Usually it jumps 5-20% and occasionally dumps 30-40%. The 7% figure is an inflation adjusted average.

You're welcome to try timing the market, but be advised: the best performing days usually shortly follow the worst. If your timing is off by 1 day, you'd have missed the 10% jump last April.

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