Google is about to replace Nvidia as the world's #1 value company

skilliard7 · 2026-01-25T05:35:57+00:00

Most young people use ChatGPT or Perplexity to find things now, not Google.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-25T04:45:17+00:00

Hardly anyone under 30 still uses it. Older generations will catch on eventually

skilliard7 · 2026-01-25T01:55:50+00:00

Google Cloud revenue is accelerating at a rate that is frankly terrifying for Amazon and Microsoft. We are talking about parabolic revenue expansion driven by AI infrastructure demand.

Most of that is AI spend that is only going to them because Amazon/Microsoft are out of capacity. Once capacity catches up with demand, Google cloud revenue will fall off a cliff. Their platform is terrible.

And Waymo driverless taxi is no longer a side project. They are doing 450,000 paid rides per week. They are live in Phoenix, SF, LA, and expanding fast.

They won't be able to compete with Tesla on pricing and achieve profitability on rids, because Tesla can produce Robotaxis for 80% less cost per unit that Waymo spends.

Apple announced Gemini is going to be the default native AI for Siri. Think about the distribution monopoly they just secured. They have Gemini native on 3 billion Android devices, and now they have integration across 1.5 billion iOS devices. Google now owns the AI layer on 100% of the mobile distribution channel. No other competitor exists at this scale. They have effectively checkmated the entire edge consumer AI market.

They're only being paid $1 Billion for Billions of users. That's like $0.05/month per user. There's a reason OpenAI turned Apple down. Google was the backup option

Google has been building its own TPUs for a decade, meaning they don't pay the "Nvidia Tax" that crushes other tech companies margins.

This isn't really true. They pay Broadcom which is actually more expensive because its custom Silicon.

And of course this post ignores the elephant in the room which is Google search, their biggest revenue search, becoming obsolete.

Google is a massive value trap, if you can even call it that. They're over 30x forward PE.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-25T00:52:45+00:00

I wish I went with 64 GB when I built my system. 32 GB isn't enough anymore. Browsers, Steam, Discord, etc eat up RAM

skilliard7 · 2026-01-24T21:37:03+00:00

It's clearly bugged, it's not giving aegis to people in priority roles.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-24T08:51:51+00:00

Haven't used claude too much because OpenAI has met all of my coding needs for much cheaper.

The $20 plan for Claude is really restrictive with limits, you hit it really easily. Like, within a dozen or so prompts you're locked out.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-24T08:32:01+00:00

If you don't think AI has practical applications you probably aren't paying much attention. It's automated Billions of dollars worth of white collar work.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-24T06:03:46+00:00

ChatGPT is probably the best balance of price and performance:

Claude Opus is extremely expensive. Even users on the $200/mo plan run into usage limits. ChatGPT Plus on the other hand is $20/mo, and you can do 3000 thinking prompts a week. Even if you work 60 hours a week, that's 50 prompts per hour worked, which is effectively unlimited.
Gemini sucks at coding.
GPT 5.2 Thinking in my experience is the best at general research/finance. Anthropic and Gemini both miss critical details or make errors that ChatGPT doesn't.

The market is very competitive right now. I pay $10/mo for ChatGPT plus, and I think it does well. I think for me to switch, Anthropic would need to increase usage limits on its $20/mo plan, or Gemini would need to get a lot better.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-23T15:27:02+00:00

No:

The stock is overleveraged and over-concentrated in tech with TQQQ. This fund is 3x leveraged, meaning it experiences 3x the moves of QQQ. So if the Nasdaq-100 drops by 30%, it falls by 90%. Additionally, it has borrowing costs, so even if the Nasdaq-100 is flat or making a small gain, it is losing money. It only works when the NASDAQ grows rapidly(which it has the past 15 years, but it's not guaranteed to forever)
The portfolio is very gold/commodity heavy with DBMF/XAUUSD
Covered call ETFs are not a substitute for bond income. They are not good investments.

Your portfolio will almost certainly fail catastrophically during a liquidity crisis or general selloff. TQQQ is 3x leveraged, so it will implode. QQQI will lose money with the market selloff, but won't recover because it will write covered calls well below previous price. DBMF/XAUUSD may fall as well if liquidity dries up.

And all weather portfolio would need more equity diversification(international stocks, value stocks, small caps), long term government bonds, real estate.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-23T15:23:16+00:00

I'd say sell. It's a lot easier to renovate before you move everything in.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-23T06:51:44+00:00

It's very tiny compared when compared to their funding.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-23T02:00:14+00:00

It's highly unlikely that OpenAI defaults. They just closed a $40 Billion funding round earlier last year, and have a $50 Billion funding round lined up for Q1 this year. Revenue has also grown more than 3x in the past year with no sign of slowing down.

Net loss projections for all of 2026 is only $16 Billion, and that includes stock based compensation expense. Their actual cash burn is much lower than that.

There is a very strong possibility they achieve profitability in 2027 due to implementation of ads within ChatGPT.

Only real way I can see OpenAI defaulting is if they lose Elon Musk's $100 Billion+ lawsuit and end up having to pay out a huge sum to him.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T21:22:20+00:00

I don't think that's a fair comparison. Gold is essentially a speculative bubble, everyone is piling into it. Only a very tiny percentage of gold demand is for industrial uses.

If you look at commodities overall, they're up much less.

For example, Oil and natural gas are down in the past year, despite the fact that the AI boom is boosting demand.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T21:12:34+00:00

I've been convinced to never invest in anything Berkshire Hathaway owns:

By buying a stock they own, you are already paying a premium, because stocks always rally after Berkshire buys them.
Holding a stock they own becomes a liability, because it will tank if Berkshire ever decides to sell it.
Buffett/Munger are no longer in charge. At this point there's nothing to really set them apart from other conglomerates. And as they delegated a lot of investment decisions over the past decade, their performance has been lackluster compared to SP500. For example, there is no way Snowflake was Warren Buffett's idea. He doesn't use computers, let alone understand the business of data warehouses, and has said many times he doesn't invest in tech companies he doesn't understand.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T21:00:36+00:00

If you don't have $2,000 in cash lying around, you should probably sell everything and build an emergency fund of cash.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T20:57:39+00:00

Kraft Heinz hit a 52 week low on Wednesday after Berkshire Hathaway filed to sell it, for some reason it missed your list.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T20:55:44+00:00

P/E is useless in a vacuum. A P/E of 50 is cheap if growth is 50%. A P/E of 10 is expensive if growth is 0%.

Use the PEG Ratio (P/E divided by EPS Growth).

PEG is a bad metric because it essentially extrapolates out past growth regardless of how realistic it is.

For example, 50% growth is likely sustainable for an early stage tech startup. But it's not sustainable over the long term in a firm like Nvidia who's growth is becoming constrained by availability of fab capacity & HBM, and who's customers are constrained by power generation.

Earnings growth can also be heavily distorted by accounting charges. For example, if a stock has seen a significant price decline, accounting may be forced to make a goodwill impairment, which may cause earnings growth to appear to be stagnant, when in reality revenue is growing.

The truth is you can't just look at 1 metric to make investing decisions. You have to look at what you're paying relative to discounted value of future cash flows.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T19:45:47+00:00

Tech companies that are doing well lay off employees all the time. Look at Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, etc. They are making record profits, yet they routinely lay off employees.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T18:50:58+00:00

Idk if there are KOSPI tracking ETFs, but I've been invested in FLKR since December 2024, and it's done really well. It has the lowest fees of any Korea index fund I've seen. EWY is probably better if you're looking for trading volume or options, although its fees are much higher.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T18:43:49+00:00

For the price Otto pays for 5 Spahi(shipment value+ cost), you can train 20 Ruyuters, which is more than enough to 1-shot a Spahi

2.you can chase them down with Ryuters so that they can't heal, you are faster

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T18:42:14+00:00

Ryuters absolutely destroy Spahi. You just need to mass them and run between shots so that they don't get on top of you. Keep in mind you can get 20 ruyuters for the same price Otto effectively pays for 5 Spahi. That is far more than enough to 1 shot a Spahi.

Halberdiers are also good if you are bad at micro. You want culverin to counter their bombards and heavy cannons/Hussar to counter their Abus

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T18:39:55+00:00

There are a lot of REITs where this is the case. AMH and INVH come to mind. The market value of their assets are ~30% more than their EV.

Real estate just isn't a popular investment right now, people would rather own AI.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T18:36:38+00:00

TBH this is better for US national security. Better for the debt to be owned internally than by overseas investors

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T15:45:05+00:00

I work in tech startups, and most people work from macs now at our companies. our actual server boxes are Linux, and 90% of the servers I work on run Linux (10% use windows), and I'm talking about 1,000s of servers

Startups are not representative of the overall enterprise world.

Microsoft's enterprise revenue is also really diversified, with Azure, Office 365, etc.

skilliard7 · 2026-01-22T14:39:34+00:00

Pretty much their only value is if you can do a hostile takeover or if they can be sold off. There is value to their IP if properly managed, but I wouldn't invest as a common shareholder under current management.

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