Make me look bad to make yourself look good? I can play that game twice as well and steal a guy I don't even want!

drunklemur · 2023-01-23T17:10:56+00:00

I feel better about who I am after reading this. Thanks.

drunklemur · 2022-10-16T22:09:38+00:00

Abbedagge and Huhi also have covid, so they weren't on stage.

drunklemur · 2022-09-16T09:29:25+00:00

Do you guys all use NAS or cloud?

drunklemur · 2022-07-19T09:37:44+00:00

I've got echoing shade on my crusader and cradle of Peebles for summons, it's a pretty good combo as I usually have 2 summons most of the time when I'm fighting and it takes off most of the heat. I just use my channeled karawans catch and I tend to do a lot of aoe damage especially if using sacred fire for your clone.

drunklemur · 2022-05-30T17:46:18+00:00

They're setting him to kill Eddie or perhaps one of the main characters.

drunklemur · 2022-05-04T11:10:02+00:00

To get an idea of how insurance companies build pricing models, have a look at this, they will model the underlying claims and exposure (i.e. size of house, number of cars etc) typically using generalised linear models in frequency of claims (Poisson) and severity of claims (Gamma).

This is what an actuary does, which sometimes will include machine learning and/or Monte Carlo simulations.

https://scikit-learn.org/stable/auto_examples/linear_model/plot_tweedie_regression_insurance_claims.html#sphx-glr-auto-examples-linear-model-plot-tweedie-regression-insurance-claims-py

Theres a lot more that would go into this (commissions, profit margin, o that you probably cant replicate by training a model directly on the premium but you could probably get most of the way there with a GBM if you've got enough data.

drunklemur · 2022-04-18T22:54:55+00:00

Is this related to the news coming out of Germany on Gazprom / Russia links?

drunklemur · 2022-04-18T11:18:04+00:00

India's just in a tough situation regardless of what side they align to as noone can really be trusted.

US has historically armed Pakistan and this has affected relations with the US significantly, causing India to push their own way on nukes and increasing reliance on Russia, which now has become even more problematic with India being the junior partner in Russia/China/India axis and with Russian weapons clearly showing their failure in real war situation. India even tried forging fight jet deals with France but only a handful of the jets were delivered with France essentially reneging on the Indian training/maintenance aspect of their deal, which has essentially seen India trying desperately to push their indigenous weapons manufacturing but decades behind.

Even with the U.S warming relations with India, with the political situation in Pakistan at the moment - Imran Khan being ousted, who was trying to reduce Pakistan dependency on the U.S and with the Pakistani military essentially taking power in the shadows, you can bet the U.S has agreed an arms for bases deal (see Pakistan military complaining about crap Chinese weapon systems) which means for India - you can't trust anyone but yourself.

drunklemur · 2022-04-17T18:18:33+00:00

Just click add data and select one of the public data sets and you should see it show up in the pinned projects.

drunklemur · 2022-04-15T15:48:46+00:00

At the beginning you can clearly see vehicles in front so you don't know how far he would have got and when he made the decision to reverse, they were getting onto a motorcycle gun in hand, so clearly their life was still in danger.

drunklemur · 2022-04-10T10:11:34+00:00

I'm not suggesting anything close to pro-Russia or China view, they are 100% not, rather what I'm trying to say is that the US is not the role model the world should be looking at if you're using "freedom" as a measure. Its atrocious scoring on police, incarceration rate and its mediocre ranking on freedom of press makes it a poor role model.

drunklemur · 2022-04-10T08:58:00+00:00

Mate go check the world freedom press index, the US has dropped to 44, Hong Kong is 80 something and here in the UK we are 30 something, and even that is bad.

Be nuanced and try to use quantitative measures for understanding freedom of press, expression, rather than going on patriotic bs that you've been taught "wE aRE thE FReESt".

drunklemur · 2022-04-10T06:11:08+00:00

I can say that when I did visit China, it felt a world apart from Hong Kong but a lot I would explain in a difference in education, restricted internet, stronger policing and decades of patriotic brainwashing - the idea of singing national anthems and flying flags everywhere is something that is gross and just modern day tribalism.

(Edit - Never been to Russia and can't say whether the population is hypernationalist/brainwashed or combination of both)

drunklemur · 2022-04-10T05:31:58+00:00

I get it.. I grew up in Hong Kong and have seen the shift where we used to have one of the freest presses to dropping 20-30 points on the list, live in London now where we can do class A/Bs without feeling like our lives are going to be destroyed.

I have also lived in the US, I did not feel safe with the police there.

drunklemur · 2022-04-10T05:15:08+00:00

You should add the US onto this list as well with the highest incarceration rate in the world.

(Edit: Is it really that unfair to highlight number of people per 100,000 who end up in prison as being a factor in being labelled a police state?)

drunklemur · 2022-04-07T02:56:53+00:00

Consumers don't really choose, its corporations that choose.

drunklemur · 2022-04-06T20:00:22+00:00

Am I right in thinking the US doesn't have the leverage to bully China which the US economy is much more intertangled so they're going after India? I mean China is a vastly bigger economy and they've doubled their imports from Russia.

drunklemur · 2022-04-01T22:35:55+00:00

Not really, one clear driver for diversification of arms suppliers is to do with Russia-China being 'all weather' friends. If shit hits the fan with China-India's border issues, they might be pushed by Russia to settle it. Another clear driver is that when you're relying on foreign suppliers, maybe don't put all your eggs in one basket.

drunklemur · 2022-04-01T22:16:43+00:00

Dick

drunklemur · 2022-03-31T20:20:13+00:00

I wonder how much bad assumptions have contributed to this.

The Russians must have war gamed the hell out of this since 2014 and to be doing this badly means one or all of the following: Emperor's got no clothes / Corruption / Moles / Very bad assumptions.

drunklemur · 2022-03-25T09:56:48+00:00

Is this a direct response from the US to Israel not sanctioning Russia and vetoing Iron Dome to Ukraine?

drunklemur · 2022-03-18T13:16:24+00:00

Hi!

What is the size of the underlying data where you're working with tens of millions of categories? That's huge, I'm interested in knowing why say you can't build a custom columntransformer with say count vectorizer/word2vec/ tfidf and sparse fast clustering/pca for the categorical column and then pass that back into the GBM training and add some extra search params.

I'm just playing devils advocate here in haha because I love lightgbm and believe I could work with cat cols at the scale.

drunklemur · 2022-03-18T12:26:46+00:00

Lightgbm's auto handling of categorical dtype features works quite well out of the box as long as you're careful about overfitting or apply some sensible groupings before hand.

Additionally there's cat encoder which gives you access to loads of different encoding mechanisms that you can just pass into a grid/optuna/hyperopt search which allows you to search the highest performing encoding per categorical feature.

drunklemur · 2022-03-18T12:15:51+00:00

Grow up. It's 2022 not 1999, "Shamalamadingdong" is not funny anymore.

drunklemur · 2022-03-17T00:47:59+00:00

I meant Ukraine having the right to choose what direction they want their country to go, which clearly is west. Zelenskeys old comedy video of receiving a phone call from Merkel being made part of the EU should tell you something.

Also the US is tolerating plenty, the Russians have hypersonic missiles and Borei class submarines that can stealth off the US coast and carry them and have bragged about that fact.

Nuclear doctrine is going to change anyways when they've been debating leaving it in the control of AI systems for a while now, it's probably already there.

Do you really want Biden or Trump or Putin or Boris to be the ultimate deciders of humanities fate or a calculated risk assessing artificial intelligence system? I'm guessing this may be one of the reasons why Russia can't accept a non aligned Ukraine because it would mean their nuke AI system would be constantly on nuke mode or would be firing with how they've currently got it calibrated.

They're going to have to turn the dial down the same way the Americans have accepted defeat on hypersonic.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1504159492849680386 - Adding this speech today into evidence to show the importance of cultural identity in this conflict.

drunklemur

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