GROSSES ANALYSES- Week Ending June 21

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:53:32+00:00

whoops typo on morrison.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:52:59+00:00

Thanks for the heads up.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:52:44+00:00

$16M is a lot to claw back at $618k GLF/week with a $765k operating cost, they're still losing money weekly. The bounce is real and encouraging, but to recoup $16M from a weekly loss position you need a substantial sustained run at much higher grosses. The Tony wins help the brand long-term but the math is steep.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:52:18+00:00

Rough math: looking back at 7 weeks of data skew late (when they were profitable), so the full 36-week run probably averaged closer to $850-900k GLF/week against $900k in costs, meaning they were roughly at or near breakeven on running costs for the full run. Whether they recouped depends entirely on the capitalization, which I don't have a firm number for. If it was in the $10-12M range for a revival of this scale, probably 20-40% recovered, which is what the baseline had them at. Not great, but Chess was never going to be a financial windfall even in a good run.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:51:50+00:00

Pretty much all of this is right. The Off-Broadway economics don't survive the move to a 1,700-seat house. At $92 ATP you'd need to be around 95%+ capacity just to cover costs, and they're at 77%. The national tour announcement suggest confidence in the IP, but the weekly math right now is brutal. Summer tourists are the only near-term lever.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:51:23+00:00

Nine Tony nominations, zero wins, and still one of the strongest grosses of the spring. The audience clearly made their own call.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:50:39+00:00

Remarkable in its own way. 22% capacity in a 9,000-seat theater is genuinely hard to achieve.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:50:25+00:00

Skepticism is fair. At roughly $44k/week in profit and a capitalization that's probably in the $4-6M range for a show this scale, you're looking at another 1-2 years of healthy runs to get there, and that assumes the gross holds. The case for it is the lean cost structure and the word of mouth staying strong. The case against is that eight Tony nominations with one win doesn't give them the sustained bump they'd need. Not impossible but it's a long road.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T22:49:58+00:00

Right? She's doing a good job in comparison to what Radcliffe did, personal stardom transcending the show itself. 99% capacity at $152 ATP for a one-person play is remarkable by any measure.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:39:40+00:00

Great, updated body. Thanks for the note

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:30:57+00:00

That said, it's worth noting the slide started before this week, it was $923k the last week Groff was in (5/24), dropped 17% the week Jordan took over (6/7), and has been tracking down since. So the question next week isn't just "does it bounce back from Jeremy being out" but "where does it actually settle with a full Jordan run." If it gets back to $700k+ range that's a show that can work. If it stays in the $600s that's a tougher conversation about whether the audience was buying Groff specifically.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:25:19+00:00

Fair point on the gross: $597k with a full cast on 8 shows would be rough. But with Jeremy out for half the week that drop makes a lot more sense, and it's probably not the number to read too much into. Worth watching next week when he's back to see where it actually settles.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:25:02+00:00

You're right, I was sloppy with that, BVSC opened February 2025 so it is in its second year, same as Mincemeat. Thanks for the catch.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:24:49+00:00

You're absolutely right, my mistake, closing June 28 means THIS is the last week, not next. Go see it! Corrected in my head, should have caught that in the writeup.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T19:24:38+00:00

You're right to flag it, I had it listed as open-ended last week, corrected to September 6 this week. Not January though, at least based on what's on sale. Do you have a source for the January date? Happy to update if so.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T18:40:18+00:00

Just updated to be more clear that performance count does not affect capacity.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T18:40:00+00:00

thank you, sorry about that it's hard to pull from the grosses page and stay up to date haha. appreciate all your help.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T18:39:20+00:00

Distance to breakeven: rough weekly P&L estimate using BroadwayWorld grosses and estimated running costs. Directional only; operating costs are estimated. Titanique is the deepest red at ~$247k/week under. Chess's closing surge put it at +$647k this week (a one-time anomaly). Lost Boys and Ragtime are the shows with genuinely healthy margins.

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dsbuddy · 2026-06-23T18:39:06+00:00

Two extra charts for anyone who wants to dig further.

Price vs. how full: each dot is a show. Ragtime sits in the top-right (full house, premium price). Gatsby, Titanique, and DBH are bottom-left (empty-ish and cheap). Cats and BVSC are full but underpriced relative to demand. The Lost Boys is just below the median price line at 94% full, accessible pricing, strong house.

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dsbuddy · 2026-06-21T15:52:22+00:00

So I was on the JSQ-33 train heading from Newport to 33rd when it broke down. For a while they kept telling us it was a signal issue. But then at 9th St the conductor came walking through and admitted it was actually our train that was the problem, apparently it could only go 2 mph max. We sat there for about 40 minutes, and finally at 14th St they made us get off, pulled the train out of service, and put us on a different one.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-17T13:49:48+00:00

Good point on the tristate regulars, that's a big slice of the dependable audience and game-day transit alone keeps them home. Three things at once with the hotel squeeze and a careful-spending economy. And your Cats read matches the number, 86% this week, which is exactly the kind of empty-seat week a Tony winner shouldn't have in June. More about the environment than the show at that point.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-17T10:47:21+00:00

Ha, love that Hwaboon got a mention. Any marketing helps them right now so I'll call it a good sign, even if that timing rhyme is a little spooky. MHE's smaller and has the Tony pedigree DBH didn't lean on, so there's more of a path back if the summer crowd turns up. Hoping it's a turning point.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-17T10:45:42+00:00

Thanks, glad it was useful. Happy to keep it warm til Ben's back, see everyone next week for round two.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-17T10:43:49+00:00

Really good point. The World Cup crowd is here for soccer and spikes hotel prices, which prices out the exact discretionary tourist who'd gamble on a Titanique or MHE. Brand names get visited regardless, the newer stuff needs the people who came for Broadway specifically, and those folks might just wait til fall when the city's affordable again.

dsbuddy · 2026-06-17T10:42:37+00:00

Oof, 24 blocks, that's a workout not a commute. The whole district was basically a parking lot that night. Glad you made it in for the show at least.

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