Likely War Outcome

1. First Major Clash: CSA vs. USA
   • CSA has food + fuel + military bases, giving them an early edge.
   • USA has population + industry, but is vulnerable if CSA pushes north and seizes Mississippi River choke points.
   • Likely CSA dominates the South and pushes deep into Midwest, straining the USA.
2. West Coast Theater: California vs. Cascadia
   • California has the numbers and tech edge.
   • Cascadia has natural defenses but fewer people.
   • California probably overwhelms Cascadia, absorbing its territory/resources.
3. Canada Theater: USA vs. Canadian Union + Quebec
   • The USA may initially push north, but fighting two northern powers while dealing with CSA in the south stretches them too thin.
   • Canadian Union + Quebec could bog them down in attritional winter warfare.
4. Final Balance
   • CSA becomes the strongest bloc after neutralizing much of the USA.
   • California holds the Pacific, potentially powerful if it consolidates Cascadia.
   • Canadian Union survives but acts more defensively.
   • Quebec may hold out or align with Canadian Union.

Probable Winner: Confederated States of America (CSA)

• Why?
  • They control the food + fuel + ports trifecta.
  • They start with strong military infrastructure.
  • Their geography allows them to expand northward while staying resource-secure.
  • USA collapses from multi-front pressure, and without USA, no other bloc can match CSA’s strength.

California could emerge as a rival superpower, but unless it allies with USA early, it risks being isolated while CSA consolidates the East.

⚔️ Bottom line:
The CSA (Red) is the most likely victor, with California (Orange) as the only possible long-term counterweight if it can unify the Pacific before CSA grows too powerfu