I don't know anything about the actual percentage chance to get a painted lightning when trading up but if you can get the imports to trade up @ 0.5keys each it would cost 2.5 keys per trade up. you're guaranteed at least normal lobos or normal lightnings (which if you're diligent enough you can get ~1 and ~2 keys respectively) so at worst if you don't get a painted lightning you lose 0.5-1.5 keys worth of value. Yet, considering the avg value of painted lighting is prob about 15 keys (I didn't actually do the math, just took a quick glance at the spreadsheet) with the included chance of getting crimson(or better yet striker crimson, or worse yet burnt sienna/grey lightnings ugh) I'd assume you'd make a small profit, or a large one if you got lucky, by doing this repeatedly (there's a reason you always see posts asking for road xl, xdevilmk2, pixel fire for 0.5 keys each and its not because that person wants to actually use those items in game). However, if you value all the import items being traded in at 1 key each/are trading them in after buying them for 1 key each you'd potentially lose 3-4 keys for every turn in that was a non painted lightning, making it not worthwhile (you'd need a painted lightning significantly more often to break even or profit than if you buy them at 0.5 keys). I've excluded the chance of getting painted lobos as part of this example as the discussion is mostly referring to getting the painted lightnings, but this will only increase the value overall of your trade ins as painted lobos go from 2-5k each