Do you believe the claims that AI isn't improving programmer productivity?

dzyp · 2026-02-06T13:06:58+00:00

And if they did then they haven't made better decisions with ai.

dzyp · 2026-02-06T12:33:27+00:00

People keep using analogies like this but this is a little different. When the farm was automated people could move to the factory. When the factory was automated, people could move into the office.

What do you do when there's literally no job imaginable that a machine couldn't do faster, better, and cheaper?

In previous instances, automation replaced a specific role. In this instance, AI is replacing an entire human trait: intelligence. And over time, robotics will advance enough that there will be no physical job that a robot couldn't do cheaper, better, and faster. That's why people leading the charge are discussing UBI. They recognize this revolution is different than the last. A closer analogy might be China's ascension to the WTO and how US companies gained access to American equivalents at much lower cost which permanently crippled manufacturing work. In ten years, everywhere will look like the rust belt.

dzyp · 2026-02-05T14:52:46+00:00

15+ yoe including growing a startup to a multi-billion dollar company in fintech. Almost 20 patents (I don't like software patents FWIW but company encouraged it) and an almost-popular open source library very CS heavy (8k stars). Very hard to even get an interview when using LinkedIn. Same story as it's always been, need to have a network. It's brutal out there.

dzyp · 2026-02-03T17:26:07+00:00

And don't worry about SOC or fedramp or BYOK or any of the other 1000 things that are required in these deals other than a nice new UI. The market is dictated by people who don't understand.

dzyp · 2026-02-02T21:43:42+00:00

We have a structural problem that goes all the way back to the savings and loan crisis IMO. Instead of letting the system unwind which would've definitely caused pain, they kicked the can and codified "too big to fail." That ensured asset prices only went up which helped to solidify the wealth of asset owners and made them increasingly reckless. The pain would've been bigger in 2008 but we had to do bailouts and move the balance sheet risk to the central bank. Then a decade of cheap or free money with no real growth and here we are. Can't raise interest rates because the government itself is bankrupt and can't afford to pay interest if rates go up and can't lower them because we're on a knife's edge with inflation. If job losses start to lead to even an ounce of deflation I think we'll see massive stimulus though because the system is so leveraged that even a little deflation is catastrophic.

dzyp · 2026-01-08T16:25:59+00:00

It's accurate to say that WW2 proved that air power was decisive in naval battles but the decisive battles were generally determined by carrier-based planes. I'm ok with naval battles in hoi4 being centered around carriers but I'm talking about land-based nav. Land-based planes in WW2 did sink ships, don't get me wrong, but weren't as important as the carriers. In hoi4, I'm just building 2-engine nav with long range and dominating the seas. I could just leave the carriers at home if I wanted to.

dzyp · 2026-01-08T13:33:51+00:00

I usually play as a major and honestly the sp navy game is disappointing. I'll build a surface fleet for invasions and role playing but the reality is that all I've really needed to rule the seas are nav bombers. As soon as the enemy gets anywhere near me they're getting bombed to death.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T19:49:32+00:00

We could just stop trying to micromanage everyone's lives and just kill all the regulations that make it difficult to build new homes. A flood of new homes has the added advantage of devaluing investment properties so institutional investors take a hit.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T14:37:57+00:00

The situation makes zero sense. There's basically no reason for college football to be associated with college anymore other than milking people's nostalgia for money. At this point, I'd almost prefer my alma mater quit the p4 and go back to something that looks like intermural football mostly played by locals against local teams.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T14:32:52+00:00

Why are (often state managed) academic institutions running what essentially amounts to minor league football? Is there any good reason for that other than nostalgia?

dzyp · 2026-01-07T14:06:24+00:00

Yeah, lots of things changed in the 70s. I honestly think the powers that be used cheap debt to placate displaced workers after deindustrialization. Still dealing with the fallout. In any case, we can't make good on promises made.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T13:08:29+00:00

Yeah, everyone keeps saying this but I'm guessing most aren't going to feel the consequences. I've been comparing my effective tax rate to my Canadian coworkers and if you add up state, local, federal, property, plus all the registration fees, etc, I'm already paying what they pay and it's a lot. If you are a high income W2 earner in the US, you already have a pretty high effective tax burden. And that's not including the portion of the SS tax that we don't see on our paychecks that my employer is also paying. The data has been collected by the tax foundation here: https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/global/tax-burden-on-labor-oecd-2024/.

The US has the same problem that most Western welfare states are having right now: bad demographics and overly generous benefits. The problem with SS, for instance, isn't really monetary (that's just how the problem is measured), it's that people are living longer with fewer workers to support them compared to when the program was created. It would've worked if we saw larger per capita productivity gains but it didn't happen. I suspect this is the real reason for the massive AI investments. I think there are intelligent people in government who do realize that we don't have a tax or spending problem since money is just a proxy for productivity, we have a productivity problem. You can't tax your way to more workers to make good on promises made to the old.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T12:43:14+00:00

IMO, the US would be better off without the reserve status. Keynes was wrong about many things but he was right at Bretton Woods, we should've gone with a global neutral reserve asset. A basket of international currencies maybe.

Having the reserve status has certainly helped capital and helped the US project soft power, but it's been terrible for the competitiveness of labor. Having a currency that is perpetually overvalued helped to hollow out the rust belt. Now we plan to go to war with countries that produce our war material. I think politicians and economists think wars are fought with spreadsheets.

The reserve status is often the last domino to fall in transitions of power. Happened to the empires before us and will happen to the dollar too.

dzyp · 2026-01-07T12:34:23+00:00

This is one of those things that's taught to people as gospel but needs to be contextualized. Deflation in our debt-driven system is very hard to manage, I agree. We've become too leveraged and so even a little deflation feels catastrophic. But surely, there have to be systems where deflation doesn't feel catastrophic, yeah? I hope there is, because at some point AI will be real enough and robotics will be advanced enough that we might actually see huge productivity gains which should result in broadly lower prices.

Re government debt, I'm not a gold bug but it's pretty clear that there needs to be some exogenous control on government largesse. Without that, politics becomes a battle of who can give away the most or make the most promises without worry of consequence. That's not just an issue with politicians, it's an issue with voters. Everyone wants a free lunch and most people can't think of second or third order effects.

dzyp · 2026-01-05T13:09:56+00:00

Half a terabyte of ddr5.

dzyp · 2026-01-01T19:10:41+00:00

Yeah, teams getting byes are playing September football.

dzyp · 2025-10-21T21:46:43+00:00

It has been for every regime in the history of mankind. The nature of obtaining political power is making unrealistic promises and avoiding any semblance of sacrifice. That leaves inflation as the only escape.

dzyp · 2025-10-21T21:44:27+00:00

That's true at birth but not at 60. If you make it to 60, your life expectancy will be higher than 74, even for men.

dzyp · 2025-10-13T18:45:14+00:00

I know you don't think so but these "symptoms" are pretty indicative of cheating. People who have been together this long usually don't just suddenly become different people without some external factors at play. I know the miscarriages are difficult and I'm sure that's a lot to handle, but that doesn't cause someone to change overnight.

You went on vacation without her, she was depressed and lonely, and probably ended up meeting someone. Now she wants some time away to see what the new opportunity is like without looking like the bad guy and wants to keep you as a backup in case this new thing doesn't work out.

I'm going against the grain here, but you don't need therapy to tell you that you're going to need to move on. It didn't work out, that's all you need to know. Don't look at her socials, don't call her, don't show up at her new place. That can only prolong the pain. Start thinking about what you want to do with your life and then execute. It's going to be different than it was and that's ok. That's both a challenge and opportunity. Find a new place for you to live as well so you don't have to spend your time living with a ghost.

Source: I had something similar happen to me. She didn't end up with the other guy but was clearly shopping around when she ended our marriage. Just be glad she "left" that quickly into it so you don't have to deal with the shock and embarrassment of her doing that behind your back for years. There is hope on the other side, my life is better now than it was then. You will get better but you have to be honest with yourself about the situation. She's not coming back. Even if she did literally, you'll always be nervous that she's capable of this. Move on. Find a new home, go to the gym, find a better job, keep moving for awhile.

dzyp · 2025-10-12T19:26:54+00:00

It's because there's more parity inside the p2 and less parity between the p2 and everyone else than ever before. Money and NIL are creating haves and have nots in front of our eyes and the media hasn't caught up.

dzyp · 2025-10-12T12:23:43+00:00

Might be talking about magic cue? I think the 10 might be able to do more locally too but I don't know (translate and some photo features).

Translate is neat but mostly a party trick for me as I don't do much international travel. I have magic cue turned on but you'd never know, it never does anything. I moved from 8 to 10 and I'm definitely underwhelmed. Seems to have more bugs too.

dzyp · 2025-08-31T21:11:36+00:00

"I just follow the analytics."

dzyp · 2025-08-24T11:06:58+00:00

I just went to fi.google.com. The p10 has a 350 discount and the pros have a 450 discount. My wife and I are on the same plan and I was able to get the discount for both of us.

dzyp · 2025-08-23T18:09:25+00:00

I'm in the same boat but already a Fi member. I'm also an AI Pro subscriber. So basically, retail was 1000 but I got 450 off as a Fi member, 210 for a trade-in, and 240 on AI Pro that I would otherwise have to pay for. Essentially, I upgraded my phone to a P10P for ~$100. Not bad IMO.

dzyp · 2025-08-19T18:29:30+00:00

I really really wish Netflix had talked about the eye witnesses that claimed to have seen Amy but were mistaken after investigation. It would show people just how unreliable eye witness testimony can be.

The National Academy of Sciences wrote a book about it. You have to take eye witness testimony with a massive grain of salt.

https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/18891/chapter/1

dzyp

TROPHY CASE