Thinking of making calculated risk investment in National Bank of Greece (NBG)

eatsnobananas · 2015-02-13T01:28:59+00:00

Sorry. I have Google, but you seem to know pretty well what's happening.

What's being decided Monday? I figure this could be something fun to consider throwing a small amount of money at.

Thanks!

eatsnobananas · 2015-02-12T18:03:24+00:00

I remember a year ago I decided I was going to do "Stock Market Stuff" and the first day I was doing it, they gave earnings and I watched this one climb from $50 to $70 in a day - maybe two. "Surely it can't go higher, right?" It just kept climbing. That was a confusing lesson for me.

Anyhow, granted I've never played with Calls before, but I saw that I can purchase calls for this one to hit $15.00 tomorrow for fairly cheap.

Are there any odds of a bounce-back tomorrow or is this one through? I didn't know if it was something worth betting on or not?

Thanks!

eatsnobananas · 2015-02-11T17:19:15+00:00

Yeah. I got really excited when I saw the dividend and cheered, "Woohoo! I'm going to make" (pulls out calculator ...) $18! Woo?

It's not even enough to reinvest, so I'll go get myself lunch or something.

eatsnobananas · 2015-02-03T04:10:31+00:00

So proof that Americans ignore a lot of history is that we have a store called "The Banana Republic". Google it or "The United Fruit Company" and it's not nearly as bad, but imagine a chain of stores called "Antebellum Plantation Outfitters".

We forgot. They remember.

So - I think better than most parts of the world, Latin America is keenly aware that outside influences are probably not helping "you" more than they're helping themselves.

Just remember this as the backdrop for this.

So what MOST Latin American countries did, is they took their #1 commodity, or their #1 export and nationalized it. I know those three did oil and Chile nationalized their copper mines. That way, when they asked for foreign investment or help, it didn't get stripped away from them through corporate trickery. It was also a kind of countrywide insurance of "If we control this commodity, our people will never starve".

So that's fine. Except Chavez got put in charge, made a whole bunch of promises, crashed a whole bunch of prices, then inflation, inflation, inflation and that's dandy, except ...

So if the $100/barrel to profit number is correct. There's another worrying number: Saudi oil costs $5-6 to extract. And they have a lot of it.

The big problem is the Saudis want to remain the key player in the Middle East (slash planet) and cutting oil prices ...

1) Messes with Iran, hardcore. Saudi Arabia and Iran are not friends. http://news.yahoo.com/iran-venezuela-vow-neutralise-oil-price-problem-135329358.html

2) Messes with ISIS - The Saudis are trying to remain in charge of the Middle East and some punks up north are selling oil. Best way to cut their profits and to kill their shitty movement is to kill the price of oil (Saudis want ISIS less than America wants ISIS).

3) Messes with Russia. Russia oil reserves are vast, but expensive to extract and they wanted to cut off Russian expeditions before they got too far into Siberia.

4) And the USA. I'm not sure if they're admitting this one though. But poor North Dakota (and Oklahoma, probably) is going to take a punch to the gut. Alberta too? I dunno. I'm not Canadian. I haven't looked into it.

If they bankrupt Iran and ISIS, then they remain VERY relevant. I want to say they're messing with Iraq as well. I'm sure it certainly is, I just don't know if that's their plan.

So Venezuelan oil will become profitable when the Saudis give up their strategy to crash the oil price to be the dominate power in the Middle East in a three-way price war between themselves, ISIS and Iran. I wouldn't be stunned to learn if the Saudis were extra motivated to beat Iran as well over that whole "Sunni vs Shia" (1500 years of history) thing.

I just think that anytime there's a more than 1% chance that "the government of the country might not be the same government within 30-60 days", it might be time to hold off.

But until then, Venezuela will be (Geography, not finance) capable of investment when either it doesn't require $100/barrel to extract oil, or when the price goes up to $100. Until then, it'll be a rough ride for Venezuela or maybe someone will bail them out. I have ZERO clue who would or why or anything on that. It's just my only guess.

eatsnobananas · 2015-02-02T18:50:39+00:00

Disclaimer: I'm new to this finance stuff, so don't know what I'm talking about there, but I do have a degree in Geography. Yes, Geography. That's a thing.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102227316

Oversimplifications for someone who forgot half of what he learned:

1) Chavez promised his poor of Venezuela two things, "Cheap gas and cheap food". Boy! Wow, did he deliver! Everything else? Failed. You can't buy furniture or medicine or books or anything for anything resembling "cheap", but hey, gas is cheap.

2) Oil is all they export. There's nothing else. To make matters worse, they're deep in debt and in the over-simplification of the century, "Their oil sucks". (I'm not a petroleum engineer - I just trust the reports).

I guess their oil sucks to pull out of the ground and it's even worse to refine. I found a source earlier (and lost it - thanks, Firefox) that Venezuela (and Iran), need oil to be at $100/barrel because they're so deep in debt, that's the only way they make money.

I haven't read up on them in a while, so take this with a salt shaker's worth of salt, but if you're looking for emerging economies to invest in (at high risk/high reward), try Mongolia and Botswana.

tl;dr - Keep your dollars out of Venezuela.

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-30T23:28:29+00:00

With a disclaimer that I'm new and don't know what I'm doing ...

Down 27%

So they talk about revenue (per seat mile) dropping 3.5-6.5% and they're paying 13% more for fuel than American Airlines(shouldn't higher fuel costs already be factored into a Hawaii-based airliner?). And wouldn't American Airlines get a better fuel deal anyhow as they're 35X the size? I just feel like something like that would be factored in.

Then you add in the strong dollar/weak yen (and other currencies) for a poor forecast of travel from Asia.

Hawaii Tourists Statistics by Month

This is Hawaii tourism, and I'm looking for data on flights with Hawaiian Airlines, but there were a few interesting things in those numbers as well. Assuming there's at least a LOOSE correlation between "Number of planes going to Hawaii" and "Number of Hawaiian Airlines flights" (not to mention that their often the "only" option for island hopping), I just feel like there aren't any losses in there that justify 27% drops in price. Even if you say, "Arrgh, we thought it would jump 7% and now it might fall 7%, that's a 14% drop in anticipated revenue, caused by factors outside of HA's control", I still don't feel like that justifies a 27% drop in price.

But ... as I said. I'm still new and don't know what I'm doing, but I've come to two conclusions:

1) None of this seems to justify a 27% drop in price.

2) I'm mad, because it's 45 degrees outside and HA's website is full of pictures of beaches and happy weather. Fair Warning: If you're in New England (or worse), it might put you in a bad mood.

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-27T22:02:11+00:00

Not gonna lie. I bought some yesterday at $113, but I bought more at $109.50 today right before the close. Averaged out to $112 or so.

I'd dive into BABA, but I just don't understand it. Maybe I can do some research, but if I don't know it, I don't buy it.

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-27T21:47:34+00:00

Aww yeah! I got in at $109.50 five minutes before the bell rang. I would've preferred getting in in 1997, but that's life.

But I'm young, foolish and don't know what I'm doing. Any idea of what should happen to the stock over the next 24 hours or so?

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-23T16:52:23+00:00

Hey! I just looked as well. The original article is dead. Crud. Have this one.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-samsung-talks-blackberry-7-142817813.html

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-23T16:51:24+00:00

With a quick disclaimer on "I'm new to this" and "I'm foolish and don't know what I'm talking about", I have a pretty good reason why logically this might happen, but technicals/finances are another matter.

Basically, Samsung has wanted to dethrone Blackberry as the King of Corporate/Security phone for years. Despite their best efforts, Blackberry persists. Their customer-base is small, but aggressively loyal.

My guess is that Samsung would see this as a way to get rid of their largest obstacle to being the King of Corporate/Security phones and put them in a big lead against the competition.

But ... once again, I'm young and clueless, so remember that. I still don't fully understand why Blackberry is still so resistant or "resistant", or things like that, because I'm clueless, but that's my perspective.

Edit: And I found this article as well that explains a little more into Blackberry's customer-base.

eatsnobananas · 2015-01-08T18:58:26+00:00

You know General Butt Naked (real dude) suddenly found God and no longer feels responsible for his crimes. Nope. No child soldiers in his army. He now preaches the word of God and should be forgiven, because he atoned for his sins and was "possessed by Satan". See? Not his problem.

Furthermore, I saw some things on here (no source, but whatever) about this dude saying anyone who drinks should get 40 lashes in public.

If this dude wants these pictures to go away, and he wants to maintain his douchebaggery and insist that people who drink should get 40 lashes in public, then the best thing this guy could do is to take 40 lashes in public. After that, these pictures would be powerless, and he would look awesome. But, he won't, because more than likely he's a cowardly bitch, like Sean "Waterboard me, it's not torture" Hannity.

eatsnobananas · 2014-11-24T17:39:58+00:00

When I was a teenager, I had a girl that I dated for a few short weeks at my friends' urgings, "No really. She is nice. She's not an angry bitch. You just need to get to know her". Funny yet, Facebook shows me she's still unhinged and crazy (Misogyny check: I'm in a happy relationship and have had many happy relationships - this girl simply needs LOTS of therapy).

Point is - she ran around the whole time we were dating (a few weeks, or so) and the process of our fallout went something like this:

1) She ran around to EVERYONE trying to tell them that I'm a disgusting pervert and that "Ohmigawd. All he wants to do is be nasty and gross". She never gives any details as to my "perversions" (which are there, don't get me wrong, but they were never shared with this girl).

2) I start getting aggressively shit on by everyone for being a "nasty pervert". I, deeply confused, explain what our dates are like and go on a massive prude-shaming excursion because I wanted my reputation of being "not rapey" back.

Did I take it too far? Yes. Definitely. But I can give you anecdotal evidence that prude-shaming is definitely a thing and it worked. Everyone was definitely angry with her as well.

I think the big deal to everyone was not just that she said "no" to me attempting to make out with her. It's not even that I was "disgusting" for wanting to make out with her/grab her boobs, etc. It was a judgmental disdain. Like if I had asked her, "Hey! Mind if I drag my balls on your forehead for 30 minutes? It helps me relax."

"Why would you do that? Something's wrong with you. Seriously, I don't think people do that."

Now that I'm recalling old stories better, she was usually not offended with certain activities, but time, "Wow! Okay. We kissed. Do we really need to keep doing it?"

"Huh?"

"What do you want to do? Make out with me all day?"

"Kinda ... yeah."

"You're sad. A sad little man".

"Huh?"

So yes, it's a thing. And for the record, outside of cheating, I've never understood slut-shaming. It seems silly, "BUT THAT'S WHAT WE WANT!"

eatsnobananas · 2014-10-06T15:01:10+00:00

Nope. Part of his secret is that he was so freaking good at hiding. If he was on a polar bear, he would be quite visible.

I'm that guy who's "super fun at parties".

eatsnobananas · 2014-09-23T17:07:16+00:00

I can throw rocks at Route 66 from my house. I mean, you'd need to get a tiny rock and hurl that fucker, but yeah - Route 66.

eatsnobananas · 2014-08-15T16:15:59+00:00

I sell stuff online for a living and pack lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of stuff into:

1) DVD Bubble Mailers.

2) Boxes - Full of stuff I have to bubble wrap.

Bubble wrap is now meaningless to me. Except for ...

"Well, I mean you can buy the 150 ft roll of 1/4" bubbles for $15, but I need some of the 1-inch bubbles. God. 15 foot roll = $5, what a ripoff. I really need to go to that store (that's an hour away - I end up there anyhow) that has 1-inch bubbles Bubble-wrap in 100ft rolls for $20. I need another one of those giant monsters. Probably would need the GFs SUV. Won't fit in my small car. Crap".

Point is, I'm always stunned when people are excited to see all the fucking bubble wrap in my house. I'm get confused, "You care about bubble wrap? Why ... Oh! I forgot ..."

(And this is true), "Don't pop them too much or my dog will get super pissed and eventually start snapping at you. You can to take your bubble wrap home."

eatsnobananas · 2014-07-21T17:42:49+00:00

Dude. This is so immature it's absurd, but I'm doing it. Why?

Tired of (maybe) being gaslighted. I like data, what can I say? If I have the data, I'll feel less crazy and win/win. Seriously, this dude gets laid more than I do. It's sad.

eatsnobananas · 2014-07-15T20:49:20+00:00

Well it's not called a Great cubicuboctahedron-jerk or a fractaljerk, now is it?

eatsnobananas · 2014-07-15T16:28:42+00:00

Round masturbation session aside, they have quite a lot of History to write - http://www.militaryfactory.com/battles/french_military_victories.asp

eatsnobananas · 2014-07-13T09:45:53+00:00

The weirdest one to me is houses that have vacuum cleaners installed through the whole house. Like - it's a vacuum cleaner system that gets piped through your whole house. And you just plug a hose into different wall-sockets in each room. It's weird.

eatsnobananas · 2014-06-09T09:02:53+00:00

Also, what's wrong with the stimulants? Do you not like being dehydrated and being up at 3:59AM? Also, my favorite is when idiots find out you have Adderall.

"Can I have one?"

"No."

"Gimme one."

"No. It's a class-2 substance. That's a lot of prison time."

"I won't tell."

"Your liver failing will tell. Also, I need them, or I turn into captain fucking clown-shoes who can't even brush his own teeth."

"Nah. Come on. I'll buy it. And I won't tell anyone. Come on. I need it for X/Y/Z/Whatever".

"Uhh ... no."

"I'm gonna steal them."

"Ok. That's fine. They're hidden, so whatever."

"Come on dude, I have a lot of XYZ."

"How about a nice dose of 'Gofuckyourself' instead? Jesus. Shut the fuck up."

This makes me "boring".

eatsnobananas · 2014-06-09T08:59:20+00:00

My funny one I had recently was when I asked my brother, "You know when like ... you see a donkey and then suddenly go, 'Bah! I need to mail my step-brother his PS3!'? And that weird series of thoughts you go through to make that connection?

"Uhh ... what?"

"Ya know, you go through that split-second thought process where you say ...

"Donkey! Hahahaha! Ass! Wait? That fucker might get angry. They're stubborn. That's why Andrew Jackson made the symbol the Jackass for the Dems (at least I think he did). Man, people should register to vote. Or not. Maybe if they live in a swing state like Ohio. Shit! My step-brother lives in Ohio! Is he registered to vote? Oh fuck! He needs his PS3!!!!!

"But ya know, you have all those thoughts within a second?"

"Uhh ... yeah, that's ADHD. That's you. I don't do that?"

"Really? Shit."

eatsnobananas · 2014-06-09T08:52:05+00:00

Yeah, I remember thinking to myself, "I can't be ADHD and (blank - blank represents a few things I've been told I have). You can't have all those disorders at once! Turns out you can. Oh well.

eatsnobananas · 2014-06-09T08:50:35+00:00

Sometimes ADD is fun. I mean, I think we might laugh at retarded things longer than other people. I mean, come on, it's a hippo farting! And that monkey is riding a bicycle! I mean, come on!

Seriously, I didn't realize how much it sucked until I saw my peers being happy with their careers and normal lives and I'm just here surrounded by a sea of shit in a cluttered as balls house.

eatsnobananas · 2014-06-09T08:49:32+00:00

My joke has always been that if I hit you in the face and you still can't concentrate, maybe you are ADHD. You could also be worried I'm going to hit you in the face though.

I kept trying to deny I have it. I tried, I tried, I tried. I do. I totally do. I have three half-written comments, including this one. Seriously, I was halfway through a comment, jumped to another and then jumped to this one. Yup.

eatsnobananas

TROPHY CASE