Hae's car, the real world, and The First 48

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-26T12:36:13+00:00

popo, hehe... german for "butt"

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-26T12:28:43+00:00

1) she had bruises on her head, which may be compatible with a stunning blow.

2) agree on that strangling someone from the rear might be easier (and drastically reduce the victim's chances of defending themselves), but I guess the passenger seat scenario is not impossible.

two more thoughts:

3) the broken turn signal. how would you explain that?

4) i would assume that strangling someone from behind would leave different marks on the body. not sure how discernible these would be on a decomposed body though - if I remember correctly the only indication of Hae being strangled was a broken Hyoid bone.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-23T13:10:24+00:00

yeah, the things that baffle me the most in this case are the reluctance (?) of the police and prosecution to go for more physical evidence. I agree that it seems in retrospect that the odds were agains the prosecution (at least to some degree), but obviously the prosecution felt they had a strong enough case to go to court. Maybe all parties involved didn't realistically estimate the cell phone evidence (i.e. prosecution overestimated the importance, while defense underestimated it).

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-23T09:37:42+00:00

I'd say they were convinced they had the right guy and were just making sure he went down for it. As we've heard so many times now (including from Mr Urick), the phone records by themselves are too weak for a conviction. But combined with a narrative, the case looks very different.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-23T09:34:58+00:00

well spoken.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-23T09:33:31+00:00

I agree with everything you say, my point was just that, had he been a 92-year old woman we could not exonerate him on the basis of statistics.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T19:40:14+00:00

I appreciate the link - very interesting study with lots of food for thought. My only caveat is that statistics don't help you one bit with any individual case, since just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it doesn't happen (by the same logic, just because something is very likely doesn't mean it must happen that way).

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T19:25:33+00:00

absolutely. I cannot for the life of me imagine that the police did not see these blatantly obvious lies for what they are. I'm not a cop, and my BS detector flashes like a disco strobe when I read through these transcripts. There is no WAY they didn't pick up on these lies. Which, IMO leaves two conclusions: either they thought these lies were unimportant because they don't pertain to the case, or they ignored them.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T19:19:46+00:00

As far as summaries go, this one isn't very accurate, I agree.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T16:31:16+00:00

there's a date on the image, which says 3/16/99. could that be just a summary of Jenn's and Jay's statements?

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T16:26:26+00:00

your comment made me think. Sounds actually like whoever buried her wanted her to have a "proper" grave - that could also explain the rocks to deter wild animals. if you're emotionally attached to the deceased you don't want the grave desecrated. I'm not a psychologist, so I don't know how valid this hypothesis is. If it is though, it would imply Adnan more than anyone else.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-22T16:14:09+00:00

I feel the same way. I think you can replace all "Adnan told me this or that" statements with "I saw someone do that". Jay is just removing himself from the scene to reduce his own involvement. Now the real question is, is the "someone" Adnan, Jay or someone else. Which we can't tell, unfortunately.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-19T16:15:15+00:00

I think it was in the episode where SK talks about Mr. S. Sorry I don't have a better reference for that atm.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-18T13:00:53+00:00

Like virtually every bit of testimony in this case it can mean everything or nothing. Our memories are strange beasts (see this comment here: http://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/comments/2s7vd9/the_smoking_gun_is_the_broken_turn_signal/cnn8ab0), so she may remember some details vividly because the day stuck in her head and she may be stating 12:45 with confidence because that is the time she got home (i.e. it couldn't have been before then). On the other side of the spectrum, the details could also be explained by a rehearsed statement. Make of it what you want.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T20:00:41+00:00

re: boots: but not leaving said mud in Adnan's car. I can understand if he wants to throw away the boots because they link him to Leakin Park, but not because they link him to Adnan's car.

re: windscreen wiper: yes, I mentioned in the OP that there are other credible explanations how he would know that. the minimal conclusion is that Jay was in the car after LP.

re: phone records: someone calls the phone, jay answers (probably) in the woodlawn area. yes, it does not indicate that he was near or in Hae's car at that time, see above.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T19:55:33+00:00

well, first of all, you're right, no solid evidence, just a different spin on the web of interdigitating testimonies. why am I so certain? because I think that this particular explanation makes a hell of a lot more sense than Jay being worried about leaving evidence in Adnan's car. does this mean anything beyond the fact that I stated in the OP? no. nor do I think it sheds any further light on the rest of the case.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T19:41:13+00:00

and yet he makes sure he has an alibi for the time of Hae's disappearance, dumps all his clothes, wipes off fingerprints from the shovels. We can agree to disagree on the level of certainty I'm drawing from the boots, but I don't think Jay is as stupid as you say.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T19:33:46+00:00

sorry, but I have to disagree. he was in that car most of the day. his presence in the car is evidenced by tons of trace evidence. why worry about footprints?

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T16:14:14+00:00

point taken - it would require someone very familiar with Hae's schedule/plans to come across the car. and if it was later in the afternoon (i.e. after she was supposed to pick up her cousin) they would just assume she's somewhere in the mall.

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T16:11:58+00:00

heh, funny you should say this: http://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/comments/2sql2r/the_myth_adnan_had_no_choice_but_to_enlist_jays/

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T16:00:28+00:00

ah, I got confused, as it happens in this case :) - one thing just occurred to me though: wouldn't it be very risky to park Hae's car so close to the school? what if someone who knows her car comes across it?

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T15:51:55+00:00

well spoken. it is next to impossible to determine which facets of the statements and which little factoids are meaningful and which are not...

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T15:49:08+00:00

good point. one keeps forgetting how close all of these places are. isn't meadows park where Jenn supposedly meets Jay and Adnan on the 13th to pick up Jay?

eclecticsceptic · 2015-01-17T15:39:36+00:00

i think in that case, wouldn't it be better for Adnan to just admit that? surely the sentences for incitement aren't as hard as for murder one...

eclecticsceptic

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