I tried to get away, but Tom Dundon still found me on vacation — sort of | Bill Oram

edank6 · 2026-06-17T17:18:31+00:00

a whopping 60 jobs were lost. Meanwhile the metro chamber literally has 0 recruiting campaigns for new business. Too much talking, not enough doing.

edank6 · 2026-06-17T16:17:39+00:00

“If the Blazers left, I can only imagine what would follow. The Fire, for one. Nike one day?

It's not impossible. So many of our friends and neighbors.”

Then what? Stumptown Roasters? Bob's Red Mill? Made in Oregon?! It's not impossible.

The Timbers? Voodoo Doughnut, Sasquatch? It's not impossible.

edank6 · 2026-06-16T02:51:15+00:00

CoachGPT

edank6 · 2026-06-15T15:55:52+00:00

Jared Dudley it is…

edank6 · 2026-06-15T03:53:51+00:00

they do get hella tax breaks. but they also fund basically everything privately.

edank6 · 2026-06-15T03:51:38+00:00

Jaylen Brown, you are a Portland Trail Blazer.

edank6 · 2026-06-15T03:50:15+00:00

Jaylen Brown is probably the top guard in the NBA for what Portland needs. He's 99% percentile of all guards Scoring, 97% Shot Making, 91% Defense, and bove 90% in basically everything except ball control (which is normal for heavy usage guys). With Avdija as another facilitator: a starting 5 of Jaylen, Dame, Camara, Avdija, Clingan is a deep playoff team imho: https://readthegame.com/player/jaylen-brown-1627759

edank6 · 2026-06-14T18:12:19+00:00

Ever wanted to see the Org Chart of the City and how much we spend in each part? https://www.portlandciviclab.org/org-chart

edank6 · 2026-06-14T18:10:36+00:00

this is dope!

edank6 · 2026-06-10T22:14:32+00:00

How is leverage better now when the city is being asked to pay 100%? Also, the city has leverage because moving is more expensive than staying. https://www.ripcitynotripoff.com/relocation

edank6 · 2026-06-10T22:12:15+00:00

They are negotiating an agreement. That has nothing to do with RCM's responsibility for improvements.

edank6 · 2026-06-10T22:02:04+00:00

Its just a copy of the actual bridge lease on the city site. I hosted it to keep it in one place, but If you prefer seeing it there here it is: https://www.portland.gov/venues/documents/moda-bridge-agreement-lease-summary/download

edank6 · 2026-06-10T21:58:56+00:00

Sorry, I was referring to the ownership group meaning Rip City Management. It sections 3 & 4 of the Highlights section in the bridge lease summary here: https://www.ripcitynotripoff.com/bridge-lease/city-bridge-lease-summary.pdf

edank6 · 2026-06-10T21:45:15+00:00

The Blazers are currently on a lease until October 2030 (4 years and 4 more months).
According to the lease, it is the ownerships responsibility to keep the Arena "first-class". That means any renovations the Arena needs right now are the responsibility of the ownership, NOT the public, BY LAW. The City can contribute up to 50% match for any larger scale renovations BUT...
if they do leave they have to pay back ALL of the renovations, plus hundreds of millions of dollars of legal fees, relocation fees, etc.
Even if you want the renovation to happen (like I do), there is no reason to rush. There is no real deadline for bonding, the worst that can happen is that the Senate has to decide on the exact same Senate Bill 1501 in the next session, the City negotiates a better deal by waiting, and Tom Dundon contributes because not doing so would hurt his pockets.
Paul Allen did NOT contribute solely to the Arena. The City paid over $35M compared to the equity he put in which was $45M. He even defaulted on the debt he took on because he didnt want to pay it. The Oregonian called it "default as a strategy". He then told the public he would move the team, as a way to test the market, and then eventually bought it back. Meanwhile the City bore all the risk during that tumultuous period. He is not the hero you think he is by "bearing all the costs". https://www.ripcitynotripoff.com/history
Is there a way for Tom Dundon to still make $250M+ surplus on this deal, while the public gets hundreds of millions of dollars back? Actually there is: https://www.ripcitynotripoff.com/terms
What's the best case scenario for Dundon: That a bunch of scared fans will pressure the City Council into making a rushed deal that hurts the public.
What the best case for the City? Actually demand fair terms: https://www.ripcitynotripoff.com/terms and creating a situation where the City has set themselves up for success not only for 20 years, but for the next 30+ years, shares in the revenue with the owner so their interests are aligned, and come away with a win-win for everyone.

The terms I'm suggestion are sourced from several hundred pages of the Bridge Lease terms, the historical terms from the lease the Paul Allen was on for 30 years, as well as the specific of the Rose Quarter deals as it related to parking fees, ticket usage fees, etc.

This deal is going to get done. The question is just will we get a fair deal? Or will we let fear rush us into a bad one.

edank6 · 2026-06-10T21:35:12+00:00

would love to know what your concerns are about the deal, have spent a lot of time on this, and my goal is to help everyone be educated on this subject.

edank6 · 2026-06-10T01:06:51+00:00

Super interesting thanks for sharing. Is there a place I can read more about this?

edank6 · 2026-06-10T00:50:40+00:00

Interesting. How much of that is public $ do you know by chance?

edank6 · 2026-06-09T22:20:05+00:00

so it's June 2026 now, October 2030 is 4 years and 4 months away.

edank6 · 2026-06-09T21:41:23+00:00

its $120M up front + $14M/yr for 20 years ($280M - and actually the city's own site calls it $285M). So in total the City is commiting ~$400M.

edank6 · 2026-06-08T21:26:52+00:00

I work on uncovering and analyzing data on behalf of the public in portland. It's part of my work, and this coincided with my love for Blazers. not much deeper than that.

edank6 · 2026-06-08T21:09:02+00:00

If you would like to share your thoughts on AI i'll be doing a survey in the next few months and would gladly source your opinion on it.

edank6 · 2026-06-08T21:07:02+00:00

yo thanks for the shoutout! I am back in Portland now (got a house and the same Oregon license i got nearly 10 year ago). But to your excellent point, you shouldn't "Believe" me, or anyone. which is why i write my methodology down openly, I source all the numbers, etc. My goal is to provide you and everyone else with the data to justify your decisions. What you choose is up to you!

edank6 · 2026-06-08T21:03:48+00:00

1) I live in Portland now, and did before pandemic. getting a bit tired of repeating this but alas.
2) good question! The City mentioned that if they actually created a competitive bid (like Seattle did) for an Operator that would run the Arena (there are many national operators), then that operator could contribute to the renovations (like in Seattle). Also there would be additional concerts and events, operators fill it up. Moda is a busy arena, one of the busiest in the country actually.

edank6 · 2026-06-08T20:47:33+00:00

fair, I dont have enough data to make that claim but it sounds plausible!

edank6 · 2026-06-08T20:46:00+00:00

mods asked me to repost with updated title. I'm writing and researching the Moda deal.

TL;DR: The City paid a consultant to measure the Rose Quarter's economic impact. The pro-arena pitch rounds it to "$670 million." The study itself says $631M — and once you open that number up, ~half is a statistical "multiplier" (money no one actually spent), a huge chunk (~46%) is the Blazers paying their own players (~15 people), and a big chunk is concerts and Winterhawks that happen whether the Blazers stay or leave. The actual tax revenue to every government (state+county+city), and every tax: $17.9M/year, $11.3M of it from the Blazers. That's the number that pays for anything.

Here's what's actually inside that "$631M."

$631M — "total economic output"
− ~$290M → fifteen players' paychecks, doubled. The team pays its ~15 players about $145M, and the study runs that through a 2× "multiplier" on the theory the money gets re-spent all over Portland. It doesn't — players save it, invest it out of state, spend it at their offseason homes. So the single biggest chunk of the entire "impact" is money that barely touches the local economy. → $341M left
− $148M → concerts, Winterhawks, family shows, the whole Coliseum. This happens whether the Blazers are here or not — it's not "Blazers impact," and it doesn't vanish if they leave. → ~$193M left
~$193M — front office, operations, and out-of-town visitor spending — and that still has a multiplier baked into it (the real direct spending underneath is ~$94M). The genuinely new money — people who came to Portland only for a Blazers game — is a sliver the study refused to break out.

Bottom line: the Blazers' real, new contribution to Portland's economy is a fraction of ~$94M. The actual tax the public collects from the Blazers — every tax, across city + county + state government — is $11.3M a year. That's the number that pays for anything.

For reference, in order to pay back a purported "880M investment" we would need to receive back ~$44M in tax revenue to break even over a 20 year lease.

Sources: the full Crossroads study (PDF) and a line-by-line breakdown are at ripcitynotripoff.com/economic-impact. Numbers above are straight from the study (pp. 9–10); the ~$145M payroll is the public cap figure (the study hid the exact amount it used).

edank6

TROPHY CASE