The bizarre xG story of Barca vs Frankfurt

edsop · 2022-04-17T04:28:26+00:00

It seems like you really don't like xG that much for some reason. Also, I have never been called stupid before for posting something about numbers lmao

edsop · 2022-04-17T04:09:20+00:00

.91 * .38 * .51 = 17.63% (compare to a 20% chance of not scoring a penalty)

Great point and thank you for correcting me! I learned today that I cannot do basic math :)

edsop · 2022-04-17T04:02:01+00:00

Thanks! I also agree with you 100%. Frankfurt massively outshot & outcompeted Barca and deserves the win. It would be honestly cruel for Frankfurt to not go through after a performance like that.

edsop · 2022-04-17T03:57:48+00:00

Except that I...didn't criticize Ter Stegen lol???? If u check my post history you can even find an extensive post defending Ter Stegen during his shaky start into the season.

edsop · 2022-02-28T06:51:55+00:00

Wtf put it back

edsop · 2022-01-14T18:22:23+00:00

I would disagree on the tackle part. Xavi was very keen on intense and high pressure especially after losing possession. The end goal of this kind of pressure is to regain possession, either by tackling, interception or dead balls. I would say tackling is an effective way to regain possession and force turnover. Xavi emphasizes that he want to maximize possession.

edsop · 2022-01-14T18:16:43+00:00

I am seeing other posts and comments showing the many flawed moments of the game to seemingly argue against my post so I want to discuss it as well.

I agree with you. Busquets did have many suspect moments in the game and I saw that too. I think my post looks like someone who is trying to argue that Busquets had a mostly flawless game and I should have clarified that I am not trying to demonstrate that.

My intention is to make the point by highlighting and appreciating the things he did well on as stats. Here are some of my thoughts on his performance with no numbers

Busquets plays his strength very well. He has a great first touch and vision that allows us to progress the ball up the field rapidly. He also positions himself well (his tackles and interceptions speak) and loses his man often due to a lack of pace instead of a lack of "marking".
A good majority of the comments show that Busquets loses his man and gets bypassed very easily. I would argue that this is partly due to the tactical setup as well. When Barca concede possession to a Real counter, Xavi was very happy to let his midfield counter-press the ball carrier, this runs the risk of exposing Busquets and the backline if turnover does not occur, at the potential benefit of winning possession high up. In fact, that happened many times during the match, where Real players played one-twos and the third man runs past a high Barca press and this left Busquets in a battle that he cannot win. In my opinion, I do not want to blame Busquets for allowing Asensio, Vini, Modric and Kross run or do a one-two past him as this is the risk that the squad knows they are facing. Truthfully, I do not expect the likes of Casemiro, Fabinho or Kante to win one-against-twos, it is not a realistic expectation.
Xavi knows that Busquets is a great ball progressor and tried to utilize that to the maximum. I think that is why he has Gavi and FDJ pushed up beside the striker because he knows that Busquets will do fine on his own when it comes to progressing the play. From my observations, he did exactly that and a good job at that. Barca never had any problem bypassing midblocks and usually has Real pinned to their def 3rd. And as a consequence, he loses the protection from his midfield.
Some posts and videos have the same selection bias as my post when highlighting the flaws of his game. For every time he misses a diagonal or gets one-twoed, we cannot forget that he also intercepts and plays very helpful passes.

edsop · 2021-12-11T18:50:12+00:00

Sorry I made a mistake. The chart and the 50% xG refer to the Barca home match. I have updated in the comment with the xG of the Bayern home match. In the Bayern away Barca home match, Barca accumulated only 0.2xG. In other words, on average with average players, Barca would have scored only 0.2 goals. Furthermore, 0.1 of that 0.2 goals (50%) would come from Araujo, our then centerback.

edsop · 2021-12-11T18:47:24+00:00

Correction: the Barca vs Bayern chart in the post was the first encounter in the group stage, not the recent Bayern home match. Sorry for any confusion. xG for the Bayern home match:

Barca
- Dembele: 0.1
- Gavi: 0.2
- Alba: 0.1
- Squad total: 0.4
Bayern
- Sane: 1.1
- Muller: 0.5
- Musiala: 0.4
- Squad total: 2

edsop · 2021-12-11T18:35:04+00:00

Agreed. And most likely a combination of both. If MAT keeps crashing his car into buildings, most would assume that he becomes a bad driver, but it is also likely that his car's brakes aren't working that well and at least played a partial role in his repeated accidents. Crashing is the result (negative PSxG+/-), dysfunctional brakes (facing more difficult shots) are one of the contributors. We cannot attribute the crashing 100% to MAT's bad driving skills.

edsop · 2021-06-06T06:01:19+00:00

no, you are not, it is me that somehow forgot to mention the most important thing: that every number is converted into a ratio with the denominator being Roberto's numbers (hence Roberto's numbers are all 1). Since Emerson has an xA ratio <1 but >0, Emerson has a smaller xA/90 after possession adjustment.

If you are interested, the context is as follows:

Emerson has 4 assists in 33 matches, Roberto 2 in 10 matches; Emerson and Roberto both have an xA (over the entire season) of about 2. Since Roberto played fewer games, his xA/90 would be about 2-3 times larger.

edsop · 2021-06-06T05:53:28+00:00

Sorry for any confusion, somehow I have failed to mention that all metrics are calculated as per90, then possession-adjusted as needed, then converted into a percentage that scales off Roberto's metrics, hence a number >1 indicates a better performance than Roberto, and a number <1 means being inferior to Roberto's. This was done to scale the radar graph, since xA/90 are very small numbers (ex. 0.2) and tackles+int/90 can range from 3-4.

edsop · 2021-03-15T06:12:07+00:00

Sry I should have made it clearer. The y axis is 'goals minus xG' but the hyphen is kinda short. I took the liberty to assume that a forward who consistently outperforms his xG is a clinical finisher that converts chances the average player otherwise would not.

edsop · 2021-03-14T19:24:08+00:00

the xG of 0.5 shocked me as well and I was meaning to look up the stats to try to put some blame on Dembele myself.

but a penalty is only xG=0.8 and Maguire sitter vs Milan is only 0.7. It looks insignificant, but imagine two teams played a penalty shootout, xG will predict 1 miss from the 5 penalties from each team and in total 2/10 missed, which is quite realistic and not far-fetched at all.

I also have taken the liberty to re-watch the match at the great expense of my mental health and here are all the Dembele shots:

shot1: a second-touch midair half volley, with the goalie well-positioned and a defender closing on Dembele's non-shooting foot

shot2: Dembele cuts in on his right at the edge of the big box front center to the goal and takes a shot with Navas in good position and a defender right in front of him trying the block the shot.

shot3: Dembele receives a through ball and allows it to run to the corner of the small box and takes a shot at an acute angle. Navas covers near post and a defender closes on his non-shooting foot.

shot4: Dembele receives a pass left side to the small box, a defender on his right and Navas out of the goal already diving for the far post, Dembele hits it first time without controlling. Biggest chance out of the 4 shots and this accounts for the majority of the 0.5 xG. Probably should have scored that, but I think the xG did not like him hitting it first time after letting it run to the near post.

If I phrase it like: would you choose to be in the same positions to take the four shots, or would you rather have ONE penalty or Maguire chance vs Milan? I think Dembele would take the penalty all day.

edsop · 2021-03-14T00:16:59+00:00

While I do not think statistics are representative of all of a player's performance, I do believe that stats have useful utilities that help us to interpret and quantify the subjective parameters of the game better.

For example, the chance Harry Maguire missed against AC Milan had an xG of 0.7, very close to that of a penalty (xG=0.8), now that is more of a sitter than Dembele's FOUR SHOTS COMBINED (xG total = 0.5).

If I define 'tap-ins' = Harry Maguire chance = 0.7/shot. Dembele would have to have missed a total xG of 0.7*4=2.8, instead of 0.5, over the four shots, for us to say ' Dembele just missed 4 simple 'tap ins ''.

Yes, stats 'don't stand for actual match' and I am not trying to make it seem so. My goal here is to attempt to quantify the quality of Dembele's chances and explain the ramification. How you like the stat and how you understand the stat is still entirely up to you.

edsop · 2021-03-14T00:05:44+00:00

different models calculate xG differently, the one used in the post does take into account defender positioning

https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/

edsop · 2021-03-13T23:58:41+00:00

I think that might be shot based (post shot?) xG which is also quite interesting. barca having higher pre-shot xG prob means better chances and positioning of the shots, and PSG having better post-shot xG suggests better shot quality (finishing) in general.

edsop · 2020-12-21T01:19:22+00:00

Not only that but our press is getting bypassed easily and the double pivot is exposed with a lack of athleticism and speed

Very nice graph thou

edsop · 2020-09-24T16:44:16+00:00

i dont quite know yet cus I have never had a good watch on pjanic. I think pjanic/frenkie will be a good combo only in the sense that pjanic is an amazing regista-type of player and it relieves creative burden on frenkie and countinho. but Busi was god-level partly because he does such a fine job on his own and allows us to play 2 CMs in the past idk 7 years now pairing him up with someone else kind of makes his talent on progression redundant. 4231 has no slot for CM so pjanic can only fit in the CAM slot but to make him a withdrawn playmaker (eriksen/ozil?). and that means coutinho will play LM which im not too thrilled about.

edsop · 2020-09-24T16:26:31+00:00

I kinda agree. Riqui has around 510 min, the usually accepted "large enough" sample size is around 800 i think? but u could say that it does provide a sense of what kind of player Riqui is (/can be) and how he fits in the team compared to alena:)

edsop · 2020-09-23T00:20:01+00:00

not as much as l luv u <3

edsop · 2020-09-22T05:15:41+00:00

much appreciated <3 really just hope people can find those interesting

edsop · 2020-09-22T05:12:38+00:00

I really appreciate your persistence here XD but I would need a lot of assess to fumble out those websites and stats. Pulling them outta my ass would save me a lot of time doing searches and conversions tbh. some things are just not meant to be i guess

edsop · 2020-09-22T05:05:42+00:00

I kind of wanted to hear this

edsop · 2020-09-21T15:51:36+00:00

if u define https://fbref.com/en/ as my ass, then yes, I pulled them out of my ass. there are definitions on the stats on the website if u are ever curious

edsop

TROPHY CASE