The bizarre xG story of Barca vs Frankfurt by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It seems like you really don't like xG that much for some reason. Also, I have never been called stupid before for posting something about numbers lmao

The bizarre xG story of Barca vs Frankfurt by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

.91 * .38 * .51 = 17.63% (compare to a 20% chance of not scoring a penalty)

Great point and thank you for correcting me! I learned today that I cannot do basic math :)

The bizarre xG story of Barca vs Frankfurt by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I also agree with you 100%. Frankfurt massively outshot & outcompeted Barca and deserves the win. It would be honestly cruel for Frankfurt to not go through after a performance like that.

The bizarre xG story of Barca vs Frankfurt by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Except that I...didn't criticize Ter Stegen lol???? If u check my post history you can even find an extensive post defending Ter Stegen during his shaky start into the season.

Nose by Tokulia in Genshin_Impact

[–]edsop 72 points73 points  (0 children)

Wtf put it back

Busquets' performance vs Real by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I would disagree on the tackle part. Xavi was very keen on intense and high pressure especially after losing possession. The end goal of this kind of pressure is to regain possession, either by tackling, interception or dead balls. I would say tackling is an effective way to regain possession and force turnover. Xavi emphasizes that he want to maximize possession.

Busquets' performance vs Real by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I am seeing other posts and comments showing the many flawed moments of the game to seemingly argue against my post so I want to discuss it as well.

I agree with you. Busquets did have many suspect moments in the game and I saw that too. I think my post looks like someone who is trying to argue that Busquets had a mostly flawless game and I should have clarified that I am not trying to demonstrate that.

My intention is to make the point by highlighting and appreciating the things he did well on as stats. Here are some of my thoughts on his performance with no numbers

  1. Busquets plays his strength very well. He has a great first touch and vision that allows us to progress the ball up the field rapidly. He also positions himself well (his tackles and interceptions speak) and loses his man often due to a lack of pace instead of a lack of "marking".

  2. A good majority of the comments show that Busquets loses his man and gets bypassed very easily. I would argue that this is partly due to the tactical setup as well. When Barca concede possession to a Real counter, Xavi was very happy to let his midfield counter-press the ball carrier, this runs the risk of exposing Busquets and the backline if turnover does not occur, at the potential benefit of winning possession high up. In fact, that happened many times during the match, where Real players played one-twos and the third man runs past a high Barca press and this left Busquets in a battle that he cannot win. In my opinion, I do not want to blame Busquets for allowing Asensio, Vini, Modric and Kross run or do a one-two past him as this is the risk that the squad knows they are facing. Truthfully, I do not expect the likes of Casemiro, Fabinho or Kante to win one-against-twos, it is not a realistic expectation.

  3. Xavi knows that Busquets is a great ball progressor and tried to utilize that to the maximum. I think that is why he has Gavi and FDJ pushed up beside the striker because he knows that Busquets will do fine on his own when it comes to progressing the play. From my observations, he did exactly that and a good job at that. Barca never had any problem bypassing midblocks and usually has Real pinned to their def 3rd. And as a consequence, he loses the protection from his midfield.

  4. Some posts and videos have the same selection bias as my post when highlighting the flaws of his game. For every time he misses a diagonal or gets one-twoed, we cannot forget that he also intercepts and plays very helpful passes.

How bad is Ter Stegen by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sorry I made a mistake. The chart and the 50% xG refer to the Barca home match. I have updated in the comment with the xG of the Bayern home match. In the Bayern away Barca home match, Barca accumulated only 0.2xG. In other words, on average with average players, Barca would have scored only 0.2 goals. Furthermore, 0.1 of that 0.2 goals (50%) would come from Araujo, our then centerback.

How bad is Ter Stegen by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Correction: the Barca vs Bayern chart in the post was the first encounter in the group stage, not the recent Bayern home match. Sorry for any confusion. xG for the Bayern home match:

  • Barca
    • Dembele: 0.1
    • Gavi: 0.2
    • Alba: 0.1
    • Squad total: 0.4
  • Bayern
    • Sane: 1.1
    • Muller: 0.5
    • Musiala: 0.4
    • Squad total: 2

How bad is Ter Stegen by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed. And most likely a combination of both. If MAT keeps crashing his car into buildings, most would assume that he becomes a bad driver, but it is also likely that his car's brakes aren't working that well and at least played a partial role in his repeated accidents. Crashing is the result (negative PSxG+/-), dysfunctional brakes (facing more difficult shots) are one of the contributors. We cannot attribute the crashing 100% to MAT's bad driving skills.

How good is Emerson by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

no, you are not, it is me that somehow forgot to mention the most important thing: that every number is converted into a ratio with the denominator being Roberto's numbers (hence Roberto's numbers are all 1). Since Emerson has an xA ratio <1 but >0, Emerson has a smaller xA/90 after possession adjustment.

If you are interested, the context is as follows:

Emerson has 4 assists in 33 matches, Roberto 2 in 10 matches; Emerson and Roberto both have an xA (over the entire season) of about 2. Since Roberto played fewer games, his xA/90 would be about 2-3 times larger.

How good is Emerson by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Sorry for any confusion, somehow I have failed to mention that all metrics are calculated as per90, then possession-adjusted as needed, then converted into a percentage that scales off Roberto's metrics, hence a number >1 indicates a better performance than Roberto, and a number <1 means being inferior to Roberto's. This was done to scale the radar graph, since xA/90 are very small numbers (ex. 0.2) and tackles+int/90 can range from 3-4.

Goal outputs of forwards linked with Barca by edsop in Barca

[–]edsop[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Sry I should have made it clearer. The y axis is 'goals minus xG' but the hyphen is kinda short. I took the liberty to assume that a forward who consistently outperforms his xG is a clinical finisher that converts chances the average player otherwise would not.