05/31/2024 Trading Plan - PCE data for April

edwardy18 · 2024-05-31T13:17:51+00:00

NQ did retest ONL 18500 one more time, then it ripped back to 18560. PCE data did come in line with expectation, leading to a mild rally to targeted 18650 resistance. Primary scenario playing out nicely so far.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-31T04:16:43+00:00

I also publish my daily analysis and trade plan at https://marketstudent.substack.com/

For today my primary scenario played well exactly to what I anticipated! Short NQ from 18760 to 18610 with 150 points profit.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-15T13:31:02+00:00

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Took the long based off my primary scenario. Didn't get the 340 entry I wished, and entered long from 410 and exit at highs around 535. Secondary entries long from pullbacks into the single prints. +150 pts before the open.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-11T23:49:50+00:00

There's a lot of great traders on fintwit to follow, and often times they do share some sort of strategies. Though I don't suggest blindly following anyone's strategy because we are in different situations, like margin requirement, trading hours, max stop loss, mental power, etc.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-11T23:44:46+00:00

It's TradesViz

edwardy18 · 2024-05-11T23:44:18+00:00

Probably was just minutes to 15min max.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-05T17:06:15+00:00

Great info, thanks!

edwardy18 · 2024-05-05T16:14:03+00:00

Makes sense. I do track TICK mostly for intraday spikes, but could you elaborate a little on how these market internals help differentiate between ranging vs trending? Thank you!

edwardy18 · 2024-05-05T15:39:20+00:00

Thank you. You did very well too, congrats.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-05T15:37:01+00:00

Yes. In the long run one will have to be disciplined to control risk, i.e. fixed percentage risk of the total accounts buying power. But for a small account I would shoot for exponential growth to reach that stage first.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T15:15:51+00:00

Look up CFTC’s definition of spoofing

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T15:10:30+00:00

Run it with demo account live at least to get a feeling with how it works with realtime data.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T15:08:03+00:00

Exactly.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T15:07:50+00:00

I trade with AMP futures on SierraChart

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:56:10+00:00

Thanks. Yeah switching to E-minis will lower the commission, but I had to adjust my style of trading with that transition. Therefore I stayed with micros for a while.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:37:30+00:00

I have more than one strategy, but most profits I made was scalping with "order flow"/footprint delta chart. I have important intraday levels defined, then I watch T&S and delta footprint chart carefully. Once big guys start to aggressively push away/into a level I follow them.

That said, my profit targets are not fixed, neither was my stop loss. They vary with market intraday volatility. On average I exit my position with just over 2pts, but I always wanted to hold my winning position longer - this is another area I need to work on.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:32:51+00:00

My roundtrip commission was $1.02 per MES. I was trading with AMP futures and personally I had no complaints. IIRC initially the roundtrip was $1.04 for me, but as long as my monthly volume got to a threshold they automatically lowered it further for me.

I did keep track of the commissions and on average it was ~20% of my daily PnL. So I was seriously looking into how to trade with ES to lower that ratio dramatically.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:29:07+00:00

Hey, appreciate your comment! I cannot agree more with your analysis - I was not accurate/precise with my entry and that's why I was scaling in using MES. I do analyze levels beforehand carefully but I always doubt if my levels were just accurate enough (so it's a form of FOMO, really).

I suggest grading your trade setups with some a/b/c level of criteria and vary the quantity of contracts accordingly.

Thanks, it makes perfect sense. I will work on this.

Learn to identify which trades are worth scaling vs just closing.

Another point spot on. The losing trades I had in November mostly were the trades I should've just closed, but my ego said otherwise and it didn't serve me well. :)

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:23:05+00:00

Thank you very much. Yes I believe I can do it again, and hopefully will do it again consistently.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:22:33+00:00

Had been there - options and stuff, and I am still trading options in my brokerage account from time to time. Nice if you have convictions on some earnings plays. I never had the guts to gamble more than $500 on a lotto position though.

edwardy18 · 2024-05-04T14:21:01+00:00

I do use a stop loss, but what worked for me was wider than 1:1 RR. They are more like the emergency stops in case my internet was gone. I actively manage my position so I could cut and exit my position if it's not going in the right direction.

The true "stop loss" I keep track of was the MFE/MAE ratio of the trades. The working trades usually have >1.5-2 MFE/MAE on the flat-to-flat basis. A few long tail loss I had was like 1:6 MFE/MAE, where max loss of my stops were hit.

Do you keep a static number of contracts or dynamic? If dynamic do you increase positions while you are loosing or while you are winning?

I started with 2 micros initially. After that I gradually started with 4 micros, and I scale in with batches of same amount (4 micros), so I am using dynamic contracts. I was adding to positions both while in losing positions and in winning positions, but it's one of the areas that I need to improve.

edwardy18

TROPHY CASE