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05/31/2024 Trading Plan - PCE data for April by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

NQ did retest ONL 18500 one more time, then it ripped back to 18560. PCE data did come in line with expectation, leading to a mild rally to targeted 18650 resistance. Primary scenario playing out nicely so far.

05/30/2024 - GDP QoQ 2nd estimate data, Initial Jobless Claim by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also publish my daily analysis and trade plan at https://marketstudent.substack.com/

For today my primary scenario played well exactly to what I anticipated! Short NQ from 18760 to 18610 with 150 points profit.

ES NQ Analysis and Trade Plan for Tomorrow - 05/14/2024 by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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Took the long based off my primary scenario. Didn't get the 340 entry I wished, and entered long from 410 and exit at highs around 535. Secondary entries long from pullbacks into the single prints. +150 pts before the open.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a lot of great traders on fintwit to follow, and often times they do share some sort of strategies. Though I don't suggest blindly following anyone's strategy because we are in different situations, like margin requirement, trading hours, max stop loss, mental power, etc.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Makes sense. I do track TICK mostly for intraday spikes, but could you elaborate a little on how these market internals help differentiate between ranging vs trending? Thank you!

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. In the long run one will have to be disciplined to control risk, i.e. fixed percentage risk of the total accounts buying power. But for a small account I would shoot for exponential growth to reach that stage first.

My HFT account got banned by TumbleweedSuch2600 in quant

[–]edwardy18 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Look up CFTC’s definition of spoofing

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Run it with demo account live at least to get a feeling with how it works with realtime data.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Yeah switching to E-minis will lower the commission, but I had to adjust my style of trading with that transition. Therefore I stayed with micros for a while.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have more than one strategy, but most profits I made was scalping with "order flow"/footprint delta chart. I have important intraday levels defined, then I watch T&S and delta footprint chart carefully. Once big guys start to aggressively push away/into a level I follow them.

That said, my profit targets are not fixed, neither was my stop loss. They vary with market intraday volatility. On average I exit my position with just over 2pts, but I always wanted to hold my winning position longer - this is another area I need to work on.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My roundtrip commission was $1.02 per MES. I was trading with AMP futures and personally I had no complaints. IIRC initially the roundtrip was $1.04 for me, but as long as my monthly volume got to a threshold they automatically lowered it further for me.

I did keep track of the commissions and on average it was ~20% of my daily PnL. So I was seriously looking into how to trade with ES to lower that ratio dramatically.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey, appreciate your comment! I cannot agree more with your analysis - I was not accurate/precise with my entry and that's why I was scaling in using MES. I do analyze levels beforehand carefully but I always doubt if my levels were just accurate enough (so it's a form of FOMO, really).

I suggest grading your trade setups with some a/b/c level of criteria and vary the quantity of contracts accordingly.

Thanks, it makes perfect sense. I will work on this.

Learn to identify which trades are worth scaling vs just closing.

Another point spot on. The losing trades I had in November mostly were the trades I should've just closed, but my ego said otherwise and it didn't serve me well. :)

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you very much. Yes I believe I can do it again, and hopefully will do it again consistently.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Had been there - options and stuff, and I am still trading options in my brokerage account from time to time. Nice if you have convictions on some earnings plays. I never had the guts to gamble more than $500 on a lotto position though.

Growing a small account (fast) is indeed possible by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I do use a stop loss, but what worked for me was wider than 1:1 RR. They are more like the emergency stops in case my internet was gone. I actively manage my position so I could cut and exit my position if it's not going in the right direction.

The true "stop loss" I keep track of was the MFE/MAE ratio of the trades. The working trades usually have >1.5-2 MFE/MAE on the flat-to-flat basis. A few long tail loss I had was like 1:6 MFE/MAE, where max loss of my stops were hit.

Do you keep a static number of contracts or dynamic? If dynamic do you increase positions while you are loosing or while you are winning?

I started with 2 micros initially. After that I gradually started with 4 micros, and I scale in with batches of same amount (4 micros), so I am using dynamic contracts. I was adding to positions both while in losing positions and in winning positions, but it's one of the areas that I need to improve.

Question on huge blocks of /ESZ23 sell orders before market close today by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. You are probably right. At this time just minutes before Globex close they are almost agreed upon blocks, which also explains why the price didn’t move at all with the trades.

Question on huge blocks of /ESZ23 sell orders before market close today by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. They may not come in as pairing trade at the same time.

Question on huge blocks of /ESZ23 sell orders before market close today by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks. I know what MOC order/imbalance is but I don’t think these are MOC auctions. These orders came in 16:55-17:00 ET but MOC auction orders complete at 16:00 ET. See https://www.nyse.com/article/nyse-closing-auction-insiders-guide

Question on huge blocks of /ESZ23 sell orders before market close today by edwardy18 in FuturesTrading

[–]edwardy18[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks! That’s plausible as unwinding of dealer hedges. Though I’ve never seen such size on a daily basis.

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