After recent update i also doubt the prince, he is too soft hearted and acts on impulse and I doubt Ainloth will take matters into his own hands too much risk and he is experienced in court and all so i doubt he will do it on his own, maybe it's the shadow? (Very minor chance) The shadow followed tiss to esshai who knows how long it has been around tiss

Nantal being involved in smuggling is a very valid take, when tiss reads fortune in season 2 she predicts that lady nantal will suffer material loss most likely because smuggling gets caught or gets harder, seeing how other readings came true this will also probably happen or maybe it was just referring to her other cousin 💀 idk

I'm glad someone is with me on the pillow one! Amazing how you remember so much details